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題名：會計師意見在財務危機預測之應用與分析
書刊名：臺大管理論叢
作者：蔡璧徽 引用關係／李正福
作者(外文)：Tsai, Bi-huei／Lee, Cheng-few
出版日期：2011
卷期：22:1
頁次：頁327-356
主題關鍵詞：會計師意見；繼續經營；ROC曲線；Auditors' opinion；Going concern；ROC curve
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:3
  • 共同引用共同引用:15
  • 點閱點閱:35
本研究針對會計師「對繼續經營假設有疑慮」、「違反一致性」以及「投資損益依未查核財報認列」意見，以單期logit 模型與離散時間涉險模型，測試會計師意見是否有助於預測企業財務危機。增額測試中，若公司在該年度四月三十日以前就發生財務危機，則改採用該公司前二年度的會計師意見作預測，並比較四大會計事務所的預測是否較其他會計事務所更準確。研究結果發現離散時間涉險模型的預測績效優於單期logit 模型，也發現會計師意見具增額解釋能力。增額測試進而顯示會計師並未及時簽發「對繼續經營假設有疑慮」的意見，大會計師事務所預測能力僅些微優於小會計師事務所，實證結果並未強力支持會計師具備財務危機預測或出具修正式意見的道德勇氣。
This study utilizes “doubts of going-concern”, “lack of consistency” and “realized investment income based on non-audited financial statements” opinions provided by auditors to construct sixteen predictive models of financial distress. Two different approaches: single-period logit model and discrete-time hazard model are developed to forecast financial distress and the results obtained are compared among the various models. Furthermore, additional tests revise to adopt the auditors' opinions from the most recent auditors' reports in the predictive models. If a firm suffers financial distress prior to April 30, additional tests choose the auditors' opinions in the year before the last. The results show that the accuracy of discrete-time hazard model is superior to that of single-period logit model. In addition, the coefficients of auditors' opinions are statistically significant, which implies that the auditors' opinion provides incremental information content in explaining financial distress. Finally, the results of additional tests show that the auditors do not timely issue “going-concern” opinion before financial distress. Even the Big-4 CPA firms only perform slightly better than the other CPA firms in predicting financial distress. The findings do not strongly support the views that auditors meet the ethics requirements in financial distress prediction and the issuance of modified opinions.
期刊論文
1.Hopwood, W.、McKeown, J. C.、Mutchler, J. F.(1989)。A Test of the Incremental Explanatory Power of Opinions Qualified for Consistency and Uncertainty。The Accounting Review，64(1)，28-48。  new window
2.吳清在、謝宛庭(20040700)。財務困難公司下市櫃之離散時間涉險預測模式。會計評論，39，55-88。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.Altman, E. I.、McGough, T. P.(1974)。Evaluation of a company as a going concern。Journal of Accountancy，138(6)，50-57。  new window
4.Altman, E. I.(1982)。Accounting Implications of Failure Prediction Models。Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance，6(1)，4-19。  new window
5.Hwang, D. Y.、Lee, C. F.、Liaw, K. T.(1997)。Forecasting bank failures and deposit insurance premium。International Review of Economics and Finance，6(3)，317-334。  new window
6.Koh, H. C.、Killough, L. N.(199003)。The use of multiple discriminant analysis in the assessment of the going-concern status of an audit client。Journal of Business Finance and Accounting，17(2)，179-192。  new window
7.Ward, T. J.(1994)。An empirical study of the incremental predictive ability of beaver's naïve operating flow measure using four-state ordinal models of financial distress。Journal of Business Finance and Accounting，21(4)，547-561。  new window
8.Psillaki, M.、Tsolas, I. E.、Margaritis, D.(2010)。Evaluation of Credit Risk Based on Firm Performance。European Journal of Operational Research，201(3)，873-881。  new window
9.Begley, Joy、Ming, Jin、Watts, Susan(1996)。Bankruptcy classification errors in the 1980s: An empirical analysis of Altman's and Ohlson's models。Review of Accounting Studies，1(4)，267-284。  new window
10.Altman, E. I.、Haldeman, R. G.、Narayanan, P.(1977)。Zeta Analysis: A New Model to Identify the Bankruptcy Risk of Corporations。Journal of Banking and Finance，1(1)，29-54。  new window
11.林金賢、陳育成、劉沂佩、鄭育書(20040600)。具學習性之模糊專家系統在財務危機預測上之應用。管理學報，21(3)，291-309。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.Hopwood, W.、McKeown, J. C.、Mutchler, J. F.(1994)。A reexamination of auditor versus model accuracy within the context of the going-concern opinion decision。Contemporary Accounting Research，10(2)，409-431。  new window
13.Dechow, Patricia M.(1994)。Accounting earnings and cash flows as measures of firm performance: The role of accounting accruals。Journal of Accounting and Economics，18(1)，3-42。  new window
14.Shumway, Tyler(2001)。Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model。Journal of Business，74(1)，101-124。  new window
15.Lennox, C. S.(1999)。Audit quality and auditor size: An evaluation of reputation and deep pockets hypotheses。Journal of Business Finance & Accounting，26(7/8)，779-805。  new window
16.Mann, H. B.、Whitney, D. R.(1947)。On a test of whether one of two random variables is stochastically larger than the other。The Annals of Mathematical Statistics，18(1)，50-60。  new window
17.Vuong, Quang H.(1989)。Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-Nested Hypotheses。Econometrica，57(2)，307-333。  new window
18.Francis, J. R.、Krishnan, J.(2002)。Evidence on auditor risk-management strategies before and after the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995。Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting and Economics，9(2)，135-157。  new window
19.Healy, Paul M.(1985)。The Effect of Bonus Schemes on Accounting Decisions。Journal of Accounting and Economics，7(1-3)，85-107。  new window
20.Degeorge, François、Patel, Jayendu、Zeckhauser, Richard J.(1999)。Earnings management to exceed thresholds。Journal of Business，72(1)，1-33。  new window
21.Ohlson, James A.(1980)。Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy。Journal of Accounting Research，18(1)，109-131。  new window
22.Beck, Nathaniel、Katz, Jonathan N.、Tucker, Richard(1998)。Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable。American Journal of Political Science，42(4)，1260-1288。  new window
23.Altman, Edward I.(1968)。Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy。The Journal of Finance，23(4)，589-609。  new window
24.Zmijewski, Mark E.(1984)。Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models。Journal of Accounting Research，22(Supplement)，59-82。  new window
25.Foster, B. T.、Ward, T. J.、Woodroof, J.(1998)。An analysis of the usefulness of debt defaults and going concern opinions in bankruptcy risk assessment。Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance，13(3)，351-371。  new window
26.Geiger, M. A.、Raghunandan, K.、Rama, D. V.(200505)。Recent changes in the association between bankruptcies and prior audit opinions。Auditing: A Journal of Practice and Theory，24(1)，21-35。  new window
27.Levitan, A. S.、Knoblett, J. A.(1985)。Indicators of exceptions to the going concern assumption。Auditing: A Journal of Practice and Theory，5(1)，26-39。  new window
28.Sobehart, J.、Keenan, S.(2001)。Measuring default accurately。Credit Risk Special Report, Risk，14(3)，31-33。  new window
學位論文
1.Hayden, E.(2002)。Modeling an accounting-based rating system for Austrian firms(博士論文)。University of Vienna。  new window
圖書
1.Balse Committe on Banking Supervisions(2001)。The internal ratings-based approach。Bank for International Settlements。  new window
2.Lancaster, T.(1990)。The Econometric Analysis of Transition Data。Cambridge。  new window
3.Cox, D. R.、Oakes, D.(1984)。Analysis of Survival Data。The Chapman and Hall Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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