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題名:財經專業人士從眾推薦之研究
書刊名:商管科技季刊
作者:賴藝文 引用關係葉智丞
作者(外文):Laih, Yih-wennYeh, Chih-cheng
出版日期:2014
卷期:15:1
頁次:頁1-25
主題關鍵詞:個股推薦從眾投資績效Stock recommendationsHerdingInvestment performance
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:4
  • 點閱點閱:29
本研究依據萬寶、先探與理財三本市場佔有率較高的財經週刊,收集每期財經專業人士推薦之個股作為研究標的,並根據個股之推薦次數進行分類,形成三個投資組合:非從眾推薦組、低度從眾推薦組與高度從眾推薦組進行後續分析;研究期間自2010年12月31日至2012年11月20日,共計95週。實證結果發現:(1)在多頭期間非從眾推薦組與低度從眾推薦組的股票個數較空頭期間多,但高度從眾推薦的股票個數則是空頭期間較多頭期間多,財經專業人士從眾推薦個股的行為在空頭期間較多頭期間顯著。(2)高度從眾推薦組在多頭期間具有攻擊性,而空頭期間則相對具有防禦性,調整風險後之超額報酬為正。(3)考慮交易成本後之套利策略,僅高度從眾推薦組的推薦當週與持有到第1週具有正報酬。(4)最後,財經專業人士從眾推薦強度越強的股票可歸納成兩類,一為資訊透明度高與未來投資機會佳的大型股、成長股,另一為市場關注程度高的高週轉率、高券資比與高法人持股比率之股票。此結果支持凱因斯的選美比賽理論,在金融投資時若想要獲利,必須選擇大家普遍認為能夠賺錢的個股進行投資。
This study collects stock recommendations from three popular weekly magazines, namely, Marbo, Moneyweekly and Wealthinvest, to classify them into three herding recommendations portfolios. Empirical evidences show that the herding behaviors of financial experts on stock recommendations are more obvious in bear market than in bull market. Trading the higher herding portfolio results in significantly positive risk-adjusted returns no matter in bear or bull market. Taking advantages of this observation, we construct zero-cost portfolios by buying the stocks in the higher herding portfolio and short-selling the Taiwan Top 50 or Mid-Cap 100 ETFs. It is demonstrated that such an investment strategy produces significantly positive premium in the issuing week and the following week. Finally, we find that stocks with larger growth and investment opportunities, stocks with higher focus from the consensus are more likely to be herd recommendations. This result support Keynes' beauty contest argument.
期刊論文
1.Barber, B.、Lehavy, R.、McNichols, M.、Trueman, B.(2003)。Reassessing the Returns to Analysts, Stock Recommendations。Financial Analysts Journal,56,88-96。  new window
2.Green, C.(2006)。The Value of Client Access to Analyst Recommendations。Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,41,1-24。  new window
3.Li, X.(2005)。The Persistence of Relative Performance in Stock Recommendations of Sell-side Financial Analysts。Journal of Accounting and Economics,40,129-152。  new window
4.徐中琦、林皇瑞(20080600)。法人機構從眾行為之研究--臺灣股市外資與自營商之比較。商管科技季刊,9(2),251-276。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Arya, A.、Glover, J.、Mittendorf, B.、Narayanamoorthy, G.(2005)。Unintended consequences of regulating disclosures: The case of regulation fair disclosure。Journal of Accounting and Public Policy,24,243-252。  new window
6.Bradley, D.、Jordan, B.、Ritter, J.(2003)。The quite period goes out with a bang。Journal of Finance,58,1-36。  new window
7.Boni, L.、Womack, K. L.(2003)。Wall street research: Will new rules change its usefulness。Financial Analysts Journal,59,25-29。  new window
8.Jegadeesh, N.、Kim, W. J.(2010)。Do analysts herd? An analysis of recommendations and market reactions。Review of Financial Studies,23(2),901-937。  new window
9.Karniouchina, E. V.、Moore, W. L.、Cooney, K. J.(2009)。Impact of mad money stock recommendations: Merging financial and marketing perspectives。Journal of Marketing,73,244-266。  new window
10.Kerl, A. G.、Walter, A.(2007)。Market responses to buy recommendations issued by personal finance magazines: Effects of information, price-pressure, and company characteristics。Review of Finance,11,117-141。  new window
11.Kim, Sok Tae、Lin, Ji-Chai、Slovin, Myron B.(1997)。Market structure, informed trading, and analysts' recommendation。The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,32(4),507-524。  new window
12.Mikhail, M.、Walther, B.、Willis, R.(2004)。Do security analysts exhibit persistence differences in stock picking ability?。Journal of Financial Economy,74,67-91。  new window
13.Rangvid, J.、Schmeling, M.、Schrimpf, A.(2013)。What do professional forecasters' stock market expectations tell us about herding, information extraction and beauty contests?。Journal of Empirical Finance,20,109-129。  new window
14.Richardson, S.、Teoh, S. H.、Wysocki, P. D.(2004)。The walkdown to beatable analyst forecasts: The role of equity issuance and insider trading incentives。Contemporary Accounting Research,21,885-924。  new window
15.Woolridge, R. J.(2004)。Performance of stocks recommended by brokerages。Journal of Investing,13(1),23-34。  new window
16.Hwang, Soosung、Salmon, Mark(2004)。Market stress and herding。Journal of Empirical Finance,11,585-616。  new window
17.Barber, Brad M.、Lehavy, Reuven、McNichols, Maureen、Trueman, Brett(2001)。Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Security Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns。The Journal of Finance,56(2),531-563。  new window
18.Barber, Brad M.、Lehavy, Reuven、Trueman, Brett(2007)。Comparing the Stock Recommendation Performance of Investment Banks and Independent Research Firms。Journal of Financial Economics,85(2),490-517。  new window
19.Graham, J. R.(1999)。Herding Among Investment Newsletters: Theory and Evidence。Journal of Finance,54(1),237-268。  new window
20.Bikhchandani, Sushil、Sharma, Sunil(2001)。Herd behavior in financial markets: A review。IMF Staff Papers,47(3),279-310。  new window
21.Hong, Harrison、Kubik, Jeffrey D.、Solomon, Amit(2000)。Security Analysts' Career Concerns and Herding of Earnings Forecasts。The RAND Journal of Economics,31(1),121-144。  new window
22.Jegadeesh, N.、Kim, J.、Krische, S. D.、Lee, C.(2004)。Analyzing the Analysts: When Do Recommendations Add Value?。The Journal of Finance,59(3),1083-1124。  new window
23.Bernhardt, Dan、Campello, Murillo、Kutsoati, Edward(2006)。Who Herds?。Journal of Financial Economics,80(3),657-675。  new window
24.Fama, Eugene F.、French, Kenneth R.(1993)。Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds。Journal of Financial Economics,33(1),3-56。  new window
25.Lakonishok, Josef、Shleifer, Andrei、Vishny, Robert W.(1992)。The Impact of Institutional Trading on Stock Prices。Journal of Financial Economics,32(1),23-43。  new window
26.Chang, Eric C.、Cheng, Joseph W.、Khorana, Ajay(2000)。An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective。Journal of Banking and Finance,24(10),1651-1679。  new window
27.Womack, Kent L.(1996)。Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?。The Journal of Finance,51(1),137-167。  new window
28.Clarke, J.、Subramanian, A.(2006)。Dynamic forecasting behavior by analysts: Theory and evidence。Journal of Financial Economics,80,81- 113。  new window
學位論文
1.吳瑞萱(2006)。證券分析師股票推薦和盈餘預測行為面課題之研究(博士論文)。臺灣大學。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.邵詩婾(2010)。台灣證券股票市場證券分析師從眾現象之研究(碩士論文)。國立臺灣科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.莊瑋婷(2011)。資訊透明度、分析師跟隨人數與盈餘持續性之關聯性(碩士論文)。國立東華大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.宋怡靜(2002)。分析師推薦持股之群集行為研究(碩士論文)。逢甲大學。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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