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題名:當前國際戰略理論--發展與前景
書刊名:臺灣國際研究季刊
作者:蔡裕明
作者(外文):Tsai, Yu-ming
出版日期:2019
卷期:15:2
頁次:頁35-65
主題關鍵詞:戰略國際戰略國家安全國土安全StrategyInternational strategyNational securityHomeland security
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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當前國際戰略理論是因理想所驅動,抑或利益爲其動因?戰略原爲擘劃如何在戰爭當中贏得勝利之藝術,由於核武之出現,戰略從贏得戰爭轉變爲避免戰爭並且成爲如何維護國家安全之理論。國際戰略也從規劃如何維持世界秩序到維繫國家優勢,從作爲政策與指導原則到學界重要研究領域。本文則旨在對於當前國際戰略理論進行總結性評估,期待回答下列三道問題:冷戰結束到九一一事件,國際戰略發展特點爲何?九一一事件後國際戰略有何學術與政策轉向?當前國際戰略有何特徵?最後爲結論,試圖探究當前國際戰略理論之發展與前景。冷戰時期,美國運用對其有利的政軍優勢確保力量不均衡並建立穩定的國際秩序,冷戰結束至九一一事件前,美國的國際戰略仍抱持「美國領導」的優勢戰略,認爲國家的繁榮與和平之基礎在於美國的「普遍」民主與自由主義價值觀,以及開放經濟與尊重人權,美國有其義務運用軍事權力維護自由的國際秩序。九一一事件後,美國面臨後進國挑戰以及牽扯至諸多國際性問題,川普勝選也代表民粹主義的崛起,他重新界定美國的安全利益,使美國擺脫海外的衝突而不直接影響美國安全,也讓其他國家的盟國感到不安,認爲「美國治世」將不復存在,甚至美國已出現「即席戰略」,使得雙邊、零和交易主義在川普思想中勝過戰略考量。
The purpose of this article is to summarize the current international strategic theory and look forward to answering the following three questions: What is the characteristic of international strategic development after the end of the Cold War to September 11 attacks? What are the academic and policy changes in the international strategy after the September 11 incident? What are the characteristics of the current international strategy? Finally, the conclusion is to try to explore the development and prospects of current international strategic theory. Before the end of the Cold War until the September 11th attacks, the United States' international strategy still held the dominant strategy of "American leadership." After the September 11 incident, the United States faced the challenge of "the rise of the rest" and involved many international issues. Donald Trump's victory also represented the rise of populism. He redefines the security interests of the United States and frees the United States from overseas conflicts without directly affecting US security. It also makes the allies of other countries feel uneasy, that "the United States will rule the world" will no longer exist, and even the United States has emerged as an "emergent strategy," making bilateral and zero-sum traderism outperform strategic considerations in Trump's thinking.
期刊論文
1.Rees, Wyn、Aldrich, Richard J.(2005)。Contending Cultures of Counterterrorism: Transatlantic Divergence or Convergence?。International Affairs,81(5),905-923。  new window
2.Layne, Christopher(1998)。Rethinking American Grand Strategy: Hegemony or Balance of Power in the Twenty-First Century?。World Policy Journal,15(2),8-28。  new window
3.Krauthammer, Charles(2004)。In Defense of Democratic Realism。National Interest,77,15-25。  new window
4.Posen, Barry R.、Ross, Andrew L.(1996)。Competing Visions for U.S. Grand Strategy。International Security,21(3),5-53。  new window
5.Betts, Richard K.(2000)。Is Strategy an Illusion?。International Security,25(2),5-50。  new window
6.Schwenninger, Sherle R.(2003)。Revamping American Grand Strategy。World Policy Journal,20(3),25-44。  new window
7.Posen, Barry R.(2018)。The Rise of Illiberal Hegemony: Trump's Surprising Grand Strategy。Foreign Affairs,97(2),20-27。  new window
8.Burt, Richard(2017)。A Grand Strategy for Trump。National Interest,149,5-8。  new window
9.Copley, Gregory R.(2008)。Grand Strategy in an Age of Tactics。Defense and Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy,36(1),4-7。  new window
10.De Santis, Hugh(2012)。The China Threat and the 'Pivot' to Asia。Current History,111(746),209-215。  new window
11.Edelstein, David M.、Krebs, Ronald R.(2015)。Delusions of Grand Strategy: The Problem with Washington's Planning Obsession。Foreign Affairs,94(6),109-116。  new window
12.Friedman, Benjamin H.、Loga, Justin(2016)。Why Washington Doesn't Debate Grand Strategy。Strategic Studies Quarterly,10(4),14-45。  new window
13.Ghimis, Ana-Maria、Giuglea, Monalisa、Maria, Cristiana、Mogos, Alina(2012)。America's New Grand Strategy: An Inherited Step Back?。Strategic Impact,44,98-110。  new window
14.Gowan, Peter(2003)。U.S. Hegemony Today。Monthly Review,55(3),30-50。  new window
15.Hadar, Leon(2015)。Why There Is No Obama Doctrine?。American Conservative,14(6),44-46。  new window
16.Heilbrunn, Jacob(2015)。What Is America's Purpose?。National Interest,139,18-45。  new window
17.Hentz, James J.(2005)。International Relations Theory, Communitarianism, and U.S. Grand Strategy: Whither Africa?。American Behavioral Scientist,48(12),1558-1576。  new window
18.Ikenberry, G. John(2018)。Why the Liberal World Order Will Survive?。Ethics and International Affairs,32(1),17-29。  new window
19.Kaine, Tim(2017)。A New Truman Doctrine: Grand Strategy in a Hyperconnected World。Foreign Affairs,96(4),36-53。  new window
20.Layne, Christopher(2017)。The Big Forces of History。American Conservative,16(1),10-14。  new window
21.Layne, Christopher(2017)。The US Foreign Policy Establishment and Grand Strategy: How American Elites Obstruct Strategic Adjustment。International Politics,54,260-275。  new window
22.Lin, Shaohan(2016)。The Public Costs of Grand Strategy in the Trump Era。World Affairs,179(3),4-23。  new window
23.MacDougall, James(2014)。Strategy: A History。Parameters,44(2),103-107。  new window
24.(2019)。Global: 'Liberal International Order' to Face Growing Strains, With or Without US。Political Risk Strategy,3(3),2-5。  new window
25.(2017)。What Next for Donald Trump?。National Interest,147,5-24。  new window
26.Pant, Harsh V.、Joshi, Yogesh(2015)。Indian Foreign Policy Responds to the U.S. Pivot。Asia Policy,19,89-114。  new window
27.Popescu, Ionut C.(2016)。Strategic Uncertainty, the Third Offset, and US Grand Strategy。Parameters,46(4),69-80。  new window
28.Popescu, Ionut C.(2018)。Grand Strategy vs. Emergent Strategy in the Conduct of Foreign Policy。Journal of Strategic Studies,41(3),438-460。  new window
29.Roskin, Michael G.(2016)。Rebalancing Offshore Balancing。Parameters,46(3),7-11。  new window
30.Sloan, Elinor(2003)。Beyond Primacy: American Grand Strategy in the Post-September 11 Era。International Journal,58(2),303-319。  new window
31.Tier, David(2014)。The Waning Grand Strategy of Democratization: Why a Pivot to the Asia-Pacific Places the United States at Greater Risk of Terrorist Attack。Connections,13(2),51-64。  new window
32.Mearsheime, John J.、Walt, Stephen M.(2016)。The Case for Offshore Balancing: A Superior U.S. Grand Strategy。Foreign Affairs,95(4),70-83。  new window
圖書
1.Von Clausewitz, Carl(2012)。On War。North Charleston, NC:CreateSpace Independent Publishing。  new window
2.Amsden, Alice H.(2001)。The Rise of "The Rest": Challenges to the West from Late-Industrializing Economies。Oxford:Oxford University Press。  new window
3.Nye, Joseph S. Jr.(1990)。Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power。New York:Basic Books。  new window
4.Mearsheimer, John J.(2014)。The Tragedy of Great Power Politics。W. W. Norton & Company。  new window
5.Brands, Hal(2014)。What Good is Grand Strategy? Power and Purpose in American Statecraft from Harry S. Truman to George W. Bush。Cornell University Press。  new window
6.Brooks, Stephen G.、Wohlforth, William C.(2016)。America Abroad: The United States' Global Role in the 21st Century。Oxford University Press。  new window
7.Freedman, Lawrence(2013)。Strategy: A History。Oxford:Oxford University Press。  new window
8.Rigby, William(2003)。Nation Building: An Essential Army Task。  new window
9.Martel, William C.(2015)。Grand Strategy in Theory and Practice。Cambridge:Cambridge University Press。  new window
10.(2019)。Political Risk Strategy - APRIL 2019。London:Fitch Solutions Group Limited。  new window
11.Schelling, Thomas C.(1980)。The Strategy of conflict。Harvard University Press。  new window
12.Nye, Joseph S. Jr.(2004)。Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics。Public Affairs。  new window
其他
1.Kahl, Colin,Brands, Hal(20170131)。Trump's Grand Strategic Train Wreck,http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/31/trumps-grand-strategic-train-wreck/。  new window
2.McMaster, H. R.,Cohn, Gary D.(20170530)。America First Doesn't Mean America Alone,https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-first-doesnt-mean-america-alone-1496187426。  new window
3.DeYoung, Karen(20170110)。Do Campaign Statements and Tweets Add up to a Trump Foreign Policy Strategy?,https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/do-campaign-statements-and-tweets-add-up-to-a-trump-foreign-policy-strategy/2017/01/10/1b366cb8-d2b5-11e6-a783-cd3fa950f2fd_story.html?utm_term=.a63dblcab45b。  new window
4.Feaver, Peter(20090408)。What is Grand Strategy and Why Do We Need It?,https://foreignpolicy.com/2009/04/08/what-is-grand-strategy-and-why-do-we-need-it/。  new window
5.Friedman, Thomas L.(20030601)。A Theory of Everything,https://www.nytimes.com/2003/06/01/opinion/a-theory-of-everything.html。  new window
6.Getchell, Michelle(2017)。Book Review: What Good is Grand Strategy? Power and Purpose in American Statecraft from Harry S. Truman to George W. Bush, by Hal Brands。  new window
7.Joffe, Josef(20150202)。The Unreality of Obama's Realpolitik,https://www.wsj.com/articles/josef-joffe-the-unreality-of-obamas-realpolitik-1422923777。  new window
8.(20180731)。Donald Trump's Grand Strategy,file:///C:/Users/Genuine/Downloads/Donald-Trumps-grand-strategy-ProQuest.pdf。  new window
9.Moore, Karl(2011)。Porter or Mintzberg: Whose View of Strategy Is the Most Relevant Today?,https://www.forbes.com/sites/karlmoore/2011/03/28/porter-or-mintzberg-whose-view-of-strategy-is-the-most-relevant-today/?fbclid=IwAR2AKECP5Q_u7FOoRYPb7QxRWt(TXlcOfopPKiWdHyFrwT3WeMNogkszLj4k#lfll533c58ba。  new window
10.Rothkopf, David(20170627)。How Bush, Obama and Trump Ended Pax Americana,https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2017/06/27/how-bush-obama-and-trump-ended-pax-americana/?utm_term=.867fc528f6bd。  new window
11.Sanger, David E.(20020617)。Bush to Formalize a Defense Policy of Hitting First,https://www.nytimes.com/2002/06/17/world/bush-to-formalize-a-defense-policy-of-hitting-first.html。  new window
12.Smith, M. L. R.(2011)。Strategic Theory: What It Is... and Just As Importantly, What It Isn't,http://www.e-ir.info/2011/04/28/strategic-theory-what-it-is%E2%80%A6and-just-as-importantly-what-it-isn%E2%80%99t/。  new window
13.White House(2012)。Sustaining US Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense,http://archive.defense.gov/news/Defense_Strategic_Guidance.pdf。  new window
14.Zenko, Micah,Lissner, Rebecca Friedman(20170113)。Trump Is Going to Regret Not Having a Grand Strategy,https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/13/trump-is-going-to-regret-not-having-a-grand-strategy/。  new window
圖書論文
1.Garnett, John(1975)。Strategic Studies and its Assumptions。Contemporary Strategy: Theories and Policies。London:Croom Helm。  new window
 
 
 
 
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