生產時間落差會影響房地產景氣循環；反之，房地產景氣是否會影響生產時間落 差的長短？在政府政策衝擊下，其影響又是如何？本文以建造執照面積與使用執照面積兩者 數量上的波動關係，來衡量生產時間落差現象。研究結果指出，建照面積與使照面間存在穩 定的長期關係，但建照可能因景氣不佳而取消，使得長期建照面積大於使照面積，而建商會 視房地產景氣變動而調整興建速度。當房地產景氣時，興建速度較快，不景氣時興建速度較 慢，使得生產時間落差會因房地產景氣變動而有所不同。另外，建照面積與使照面積間的關 係會因政府相關政策的改變而產生衝擊，此亦將改變生產時間落差的長短。

　　　　　This paper explores the influence of real estate cycles on construction lags by analyzing the fluctuations in building permits and usage permits as measured by total floor area. Results support the hypothesis that a long-run equilibrium exists between building and usage; however, building permits issued may fall during a downswing in the market. In addition, the duration of construction lags is affected by changes in real estate cycles and by the impact of government policies. When the market is strong, the duration of construction lags shortens and the duration is extended when the market is depressed.