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題名:模糊決策理論應用在大眾捷運系統與公車整合營運計劃之研究
作者:徐村和 引用關係
作者(外文):Hsu Tsuen-Ho
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:交通管理(科學)學系
指導教授:張有恆
學位類別:博士
出版日期:1993
主題關鍵詞:模糊決策營運計劃大眾捷運系統公車模糊規劃Fuzzy Decision MakingOperation PlanningMass Rapid Transit
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(11) 博士論文(2) 專書(0) 專書論文(6)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:9
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:47
  大眾捷運系統與公車整合營運計劃,屬於模糊多目標最佳化問題,模
式規劃者所面對的是模糊目標期望水準及不精確營運資料。傳統的決策理
論忽略此種不精確性及模糊性的存在,而廣受實務界所批評,然而國內相
關的研究也沒有正視此問題。因此本研究的目的,即在於使用模糊決策理
論,來處理模糊環境下的大眾運輸營運計劃決策問題。  為了求解營運
計劃的模糊規劃問題(包含固定需求及變動需求模式),本文以最大化目
標值與目標期望水準最小標準差的概念,發展演算法來求解滿意解。同時
由實證中發現min運算子並不適合固定需求模式,而適合使用加權運算
子。  為了評估不同的營運計劃方案,本文分別依據個體決策及群體決
策來發展評估模式。個體決策模式方面,使用模糊綜合評判、近似推論及
模糊語意法,發展一多層級決策模式,改善Chu 模式低層級評估結果需轉
化成單一值,再放入高層級模式的缺失。群體決策方面,以模糊度量理論
發展AHP模式,由實證顯示本模式能提供較多的資訊給決策者,已能解
決傳統AHP法無法處理決策屬性相關性、平均數、模糊數以及共識性決
策等問題。由於模糊度量AHP法能處理決策屬性具相關問題,因此本文
直接將評估者放入決策層級,發展出共識性決策模式,由實證顯示該模式
已能有效處理少數意見被多數意見平均的問題,非常適合於專家意見紛歧
的決策環境。  綜合本研究的實證結果,顯示模糊決策理論在不精確、
模糊的環境下,可以獲得較精確或較可靠的評估結果,對於解決現實世界
複雜的決策問題有相當大的貢獻。
The integration of the metro and bus operation planning is a
fuzzy multiobjective optimization problem. The traditional de-
cision theory ignores the problems of imprecision and of fuzzi-
ness,so it is often criticized in practical cases.
Transportation specialists do not pay enough attention to this
issue, either. The purpose of this paper is to solve the fuzzy
optimization problem of the operation plan under a fixed and
variable demand. To determine a suitable compromize solution,
this study will use the concept of maximizing the smallest
normalized diviation from aspiration levels to develop an
algorithm. In empirical study, it has been found that the
weighted operator, not the min operator, is suitable for the
fixed demand model. To evaluate the alternatives of this
operation plan, this study develops evaluation models
according to the individual de- cision and the group decision.
In the individual decision model, this study uses fuzzy
synthetic decision, approximation reasoning and fuzzy
linguistic approach to develop a multiple-layered de- cision(
MLD) model. This MLD model can solve the problem of trans-
ferring a basic level model to a higer level one. In the group
decision model, this study uses fuzzy measure theory to revise
the AHP model. According to the case study, the fuzzy measure
AHP can provide more information for decision makers. This
model can solve some problems that traditional AHP can not
deal with, like decision attribute dependence, average value,
fuzziness number and consensus decision problems. Because the
fuzzy AHP can deal with decision attribute dependence problem,
this study puts the evaluator at the decision making process to
develop a con- sensus decision model. From the case study, the
opinion of the minority will not be ignored, so this model is
very suitable for the studies in conflicting decision
environments.
 
 
 
 
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