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題名:新十大建設投資方案對台灣區域經濟之影響-考慮不完全競爭機制之多區域可計算一般均衡模型
作者:郭國欽
作者(外文):Kwo-chin Kuo
校院名稱:國立中正大學
系所名稱:國際經濟所
指導教授:李秉正
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2008
主題關鍵詞:新十大建設方案區域經濟發展經濟影響分析可計算一般均衡模型不完全競爭多區域可計算一般均衡模型Economic Impact AnalysisRegional Economic DevelopmentTen New Major Construction ProjectsMultiregional Computable General Equilibrium Mod
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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為了研究政府推動的新十大建設計畫的效果,本文以李秉正(2000)建構的台灣多區域水資源一般均衡模型(MR-WATERGEM)為基礎,加入澳洲ORANI模型中投資行為可作為外生衝擊變數的機制,並納入Horridge(1999)與林國榮 (2003)的單國不完全競爭CGE模型中不完全競爭的機制,建構了一個考慮規模經濟、產品差異性與市場結構差異性的我國北、中、南、東四區域可計算一般均衡模型(Multiregional Computable General Equilibrium, CGE, Model)。用以探討政府新十大建設五年五千億的投資支出,對台灣總體經濟與區域經濟之影響。模型模擬結果如下:
(一)對全國總體經濟的衝擊方面:短期使國內實質GDP增加3.84%大於長期的1.03%~1.08%;在GDP平減指數方面,短期上升0.04%小於長期的3.15%~3.21%;在總出口方面,短期減少0.08%小於長期減少的6.02~6.13%;在國內總進口方面,短期增加9.39%小於長期的10.24%~10.36%;在全國總勞動雇用方面,短期增加 7.11%,長期則因已達充分就業,變動幅度為0%;消費者物價方面,短期增加 2.51%,小於長期的6.26%~6.37%;名目工資率方面,短期設定具僵故性,所以變動幅度為0%,長期為9.65%~9.75%。
對個別產業總產出的影響,短期而言,除了紡織及成衣服飾皮革業微幅減少,其餘產業均增加,其中又以新十大建設直接投資的營造業、機械業及通信產品業增幅最大,依序為27.91%、14.07%及11.16%,此外與此三種直接投資行業產業關聯性最高的其他傳統工業增幅也較大達9.70%。長期而言,產出減少較多的產業包括農業、紡織業、成衣服飾皮革業、化學材料業及電子零配件業。
(二)對各區域經濟影響:在區域實質GRP方面,短期而言,四個區域均增加,由高至低分別為東部地區的13.68%、南部地區的4.96%、中部地區的4.03%及北部地區的3.20%。拉進了東部與西部、北部與南部經濟發展的差距;長期而言,由高至低則分別為東部地區的15.18%、南部地區的2.21%、中部地區的1.16%及北部地區的0.33%。
在區域總物價方面,短期而言,四個區域均增加,由高至低分別為東部地區的5.09%、南部地區的2.92%、北部地區的2.58%及中部地區的2.02%。長期而言,四個區域總物價增加幅度均變大,乃因勞動無法增加,各區域產出增加有限,只反映在物價大幅上漲上。四個區域由高至低分別為北部地區的 8.13%、中部地區的7.61%、南部地區的7.52%及東部地區的6.32%。
在區域總出口方面,減少的地區為北部地區的-0.32%及東部地區的-1.19%;增加的地區為南部地區的0.08%及中部地區的0.99%。長期時由於各區域國產品物價上漲幅度較大,貿易條件惡化較明顯,所以各區域總出口變動百分比較大。高至低分別為北部地區的 -6.86%、東部地區的-5.21%、南部地區的-4.97%及中部地區的-4.25%。
在區域總進口方面,短期時四個區域總進口增加幅度,由高至低依序為東部地區的14.85%、南部地區的12.37%、中部地區的8.78%及北部地區的7.59%。長期時,國內勞動供給固定,為因應政府投資增加時所需的資本財及中間投入,區域總進口因而增加。四個區域總進口增加幅度,由高至低依序為東部地區的19.86%、南部地區的13.59%、中部地區的10.39%及北部地區的7.74%。
(三)對四區域45部門之影響:實質產出方面,短期時北、中、南、東四區域的實質產出除了極少數區域部門微幅減少外,其餘幾乎都是增加的。長期時,產業間現了清楚的「此消彼長」的現象。除了各區域新十大建設直接投資之公共及其他工程、通信器材、資訊產品以及教育醫療部門以及與這三個產業關連性較高的產業產出也受到明顯的提升之外,其餘各產業的產出都出現負面影響,其中又以各區域的農業、紡織業、成衣服飾皮革業受到最大的負面衝擊。
四區域內45個產業部門的長期或短期就業變動則與實質產出的變動類似,而四區域45部門商品價格、各產業支付的勞動報酬及租用資本財價格在長期時都因為政府支出的增加而全面上揚。
比較四區域的投資乘數,東部及中部區域高於南部及北部區域,表示此次政府投資支出在東部及中部區域產生較好的經濟帶動效果,這樣的結果可能是因為中部及東部兩區域仍處於經濟發展初期階段,經濟成長追趕的效果(catch up effect)較顯著,而南部與北部區域則發展已趨成熟,政府的公共投資計畫對這兩個區域經濟的帶動效果較小。然而,本文發現,除了東部地區的長短期投資乘數(1.17、1.15)及中部地區的短期投資乘數(1.51)大於1外,其餘不論是長短期各區域投資乘數均小於1,這可能是政府公共支出增加對私部門投資產生了排擠效果(crowding-out effect)及物價上漲造成貿易條件惡化使得淨出口(X-M)減少所致。長期時,區域吉尼係數由建設前的0.1987降至建設後的0.1824,表示四區域所得趨於平均,但效果並不是非常顯著。
In this dissertation, I developed an integrated multiregional and multiregional computable general equilibrium (Multi-regional CGE) model with imperfect competition for Taiwan to study the economic impacts of the Ten New Major Construction Projects(TNCP) proposed by the DPP administration on Taiwan’s regional economy.
This research found that the TNCP generate positive economic impacts on Taiwan’s north, central, south, and east regions. In the short run, gross regional product (GRP) in each region is increased significantly(increases by 3.2%,4.03%,4.96% and 13.68%). While in the long run, since labor are in full employment, the shocks of public investment projects result in significant inflation. The distribution of project funding among regions favors the east and the south region ,and therefore contributes to improved spatial income distribution.
The 45 industries within each region experience different economic impacts. Industries that directly receive government expenditures(Construct, Housing, CommuPrd) or closely related to the TNCP(Nonmetallic, SteelIron, Machinery) are impacted to a greater extent. In the long run, the over-emphasis of public expenditures on construction and high-tech industries risks the costs of unbalanced economic development. The agricultural, textile, apparel, leather, chemical and fiber sector may be negatively impacted.
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