:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
題名:應用總體計量模型的財政政策效果分析
作者:黃琝琇 引用關係
作者(外文):Wen-Hsiu Huang
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:國家發展研究所
指導教授:唐代彪
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2009
主題關鍵詞:總體計量模型財政政策消費券租稅減免能源稅Macroeconometric ModelFiscal PolicyConsumption VouchersTax ReductionEnergy Tax
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:44
總體計量模型作為政策效果分析,除了用於長期預測之外,並可比較多種不同情境下的效果差異,尤其適合用於分析政府部門對總體經濟的效果,在政策實施前的效果估測,可提供政府作為施政參考。在經濟體系裡,政府部門利用財政工具,包含租稅政策、政府支出與債務融通等方式,直接或間接影響經濟。其對總體經濟影響的方向與程度大小,難以由簡單的方程式可描述,變數之間因相互影響而具有複雜性。尤其,若欲配合其他同時發生的相關措施一併討論,非大型總體經濟模型將無法完成。因此,本研究利用總體計量模型,分析當前政府的三個重要財政政策相關議題。
第一篇文章是以總體計量季模型,探討台灣政府於2009年以移轉性支出方式,發放消費券振興經濟之總體效果。模擬結果顯示,相較於政府投資與政府消費而言,消費券政策對提升經濟成長的效果較為有限,而在改善所得分配方面較有助益。而政府投資與政府消費雖能在第一年有較高的經濟成長,但自第二年後卻反有負向效果;其次,針對消費券實施期間長短的效果比較,發現實施期間縮短使經濟成長較高;最後,比較消費券以租稅與債務融通的效果,發現租稅融通對刺激經濟成長效果較大,此突顯出預算平衡對國民經濟的重要性。
第二篇文章是以總體計量年模型,探討促進產業升級條例租稅減免於2009年底實施屆滿後,對台灣總體經濟之效果。模擬結果顯示,促產條例取消租稅減免的確對國民經濟產生極大負面效果。比較促產條例的兩種配套措施,即減稅與擴大政府支出的政策效果,若要降低促產條例落日後的負面衝擊,應採取對綜所稅與營所稅双降之減稅措施較佳,此可從國內生產毛額、經濟成長與所得分配等變數的表現可知。雖然此配套措施在實施初期使財政赤字攀升,但透過刺激國民生產以擴大稅基,財政收支餘絀可逐漸改善,租稅負擔率亦能降低。
第三篇文章是以總體計量年模型,分析能源稅條例草案若於2010年實施,對台灣總體經濟的效果。模擬結果顯示,課徵能源稅將不利國民經濟生產,且所得分配惡化。其次,若在油價下跌時實施能源稅,可緩和對經濟的負面影響,為開始課徵的適宜時機。最後,比較搭配不同的稅收回饋措施,就環保目的,以搭配綜所稅減稅的節能減碳效果最佳,但國民經濟與所得分配最差;若為減緩經濟衝擊,以搭配營所稅減稅的國民經濟與所得分配最佳,不過卻會失去節能減碳之原意。因此,較可行的作法是將能源稅收同時用於綜所稅與營所稅減稅,並依政策目標視實施情況加以適度調整。
本文的三個總體計量模型,乃依照不同的財政政策分析主題進一步修正以期適用,而所做的預測與模擬分析,亦大致符合理論與預期。本文的最終目的,是希望藉由不同主題的應用,表現出總體計量模型在財政領域分析的多元性,並在反覆驗證與改良後,能達到趨勢預測的準確性與政策分析的可用性。
一、中文部分
王健全 (2008),《產業政策工具研究計劃》,台北:經濟部工業局委託研究報告。
江莉莉 (1982),《台灣生產事業投資函數之硏究》,台北:台灣經濟研究院。
李金桐與朱澤民 (1990),「獎勵投資五、四年免稅經濟效益評估」,《財稅研究》,22(1),81-95。
何金巡、蕭麗卿、周麗芳與林建甫 (2004),「開放經濟體系勞工退休制度之總體經濟計量分析」,《台灣經濟預測與政策》,34(2),73-128。new window
何金巡、林建甫與周麗芳 (2005),「台灣總體技術進步、生產力成長之總體經濟計量分析」,《2005年生產力與效率學術研討會論文集》,台北:中央研究院經濟研究所及國立中央大學產業經濟研究所。
何金巡、周麗芳、林建甫與許振明 (2006),「台灣所得分配與經濟成長的總體經濟計量分析」,《台灣經濟學會與北美華人經濟學會2006年聯合年會論文集》,台北:台灣經濟學會。
何金巡、林建甫與周麗芳 (2007),「油價、景氣與政府財政的總體經濟計量分析」, 《農業與資源經濟》,4(1),25-80。
吳再益 (2007),「我國課徵能源稅之經濟影響初步評估」,《碳經濟》,5,23-31。new window
林建甫 (2006),「台灣總體經濟金融模型之建立」,《中央銀行季刊》,28(1),5-42。new window
林幸樺與蘇漢邦 (2007),「開徵能源稅之雙紅利效果評估」,《碳經濟》,5,52-62。
林立權 (2008),《台灣總體計量模型之政府政策探討》,國立臺灣大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
吳中書 (2005),《我國所得稅最低稅負制度對總體所得與物價影響之研究》,台北:財政部賦稅署委託研究報告。
吳中書與范芝萍 (2006),「營業稅調整對總體經濟之可能衝擊」,《台灣經濟預測與政策》,37(1),113-154。
周濟 (2003),《兩岸總體經濟計量聯結模型之建構與分析》,台北:行政院經濟建設委員會委託研究報告。
陳韻如 (2000),《外人來台直接投資的租稅獎勵效果分析》,國立台北大學財政學系碩士論文。
孫克難 (1985),《台灣地區獎勵投資條例及其經濟效益評估》,台北:中華經濟研究院。
孫克難與劉涵泰 (2001),《邊際有效稅率、租稅減免與投資行為—台灣的實證》,台北:中華經濟研究院。
孫克難 (2008),《全面取消促進產業升級條例租稅減免之稅負分配影響評估》,台北:財政部委託研究報告。
許松根與陳玉瓏 (1989),「獎勵投資條例與固定資本形成」,《經濟論文叢刊》,17(1),32-52。
許振邦 (2006),《溫室氣體減量政策對能源政策之影響及因應對策》,台北:行政院經濟建設委員會委託研究報告。new window
梁啟源 (2007),《能源稅相關問題之釐清與經濟影響評估》,台北:行政院財政部委託研究報告。
郭迺鋒、楊浩彥與溫麗琪 (2002),「碳稅收入循環利用之雙重紅利效果:台灣多部門CGE實證模型」,東吳經濟學術研討會,台北:東吳大學。
黃耀輝 (2003),「一舉兩得的環境租稅改革:改善財政和提升綠色所得」,《農業與經濟》,30,80-119。new window
黃宗煌 (2007) ,「能源稅對我國產業及總體經濟之影響」,《2007年環境與能源國際研討會論文集》,台北:財團法人中技社。
溫麗琪、郭迺峰與黃耀輝 (2002),「空氣污染防制費與相關稅賦之整合研究」,綠色租稅改革研討會,台北:台灣經濟學會與台灣經濟研究院。
葉芳珠與呂光和 (2006),「93年臺灣地區家庭收入與支出變遷分析」,《主計月刊》,602,68-76。
張慶輝 (1985),「投資租稅抵減之賦稅面與經濟面效果」,《財稅研究》,17(4),32-52。new window
楊子菡與蘇漢邦 (2002),「綠色租稅改革的租稅福利成本與結構效果」,《農業與經濟》,29,29-54。
楊浩彥、郭迺峰與朱澤民 (2002),「綠色稅制改革以碳稅收入抵減產業僱主健保負擔的實證研究」,綠色租稅改革研討會,台北:台灣經濟學會與台灣經濟研究院。
楊建成 (2007),《促進產業升級條例租稅減免措施、兩稅合一制度及最低稅負制之總合檢討》,台北:財政部委託研究報告。
楊建成 (2008),《全面取消促產條例租稅減免之經濟與稅收影響評估》,台北:財政部委託研究報告。
蕭代基、羅時芳、王京明與黃耀輝 (2007),《推動能源稅之影響評估及應有配套措施之研究》,台北:行政院經濟建設委員會委託研究報告。

二、英文部分
Ando, A. and F. Modigliani (1963), “The Life Cycle Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests,” American Economic Review, 53(1), 55-84.
Ahmed, H. and S. M. Miller (2000), “Crowding-out and Crowding-in Effects of the Components of Government Expenditure,” Contemporary Economic Policy, 18(1), 124-133.
Alain de Janvry, S. E. and D. Benjamin (2001), “Cash Transfer Programs with Income Multipliers: PROCAMPO in Mexico,” World Development, 29(6), 1043-1056.
Aschauer, D. A. (1985), “Fiscal policy and Aggregate Demand,” American Economic Review, 75(1), 117–127.
Aschauer, D. A. (1990), “Is Government Spending Stimulative?” Contemporary Economic Policy, 8(4), 30-46.
Bailey, M. J. (1971), National Income and the Price Level, New York: McGraw-Hill.
Barro, R. J. (1981), “Output Effect of Government Purchases,” Journal of Public Economy, 89, 1086-1121.
Bautista, R. M. (1988), “Macroeconomic Models for East Asian Developing Countries,” Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 2(2), 1-25.
Baxter, M. and R. G. King (1993), “Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium,” American Economic Review, 83(3), 315-334.
Bean, C. (1986), “The Estimation of Surprise Models and the Surprise Consumption Function,” Review of Economic Studies, 53, 497-516.
Blanchard, O. and R. Perotti (2002), “An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117, 1329–1368.
Bodkin, R. G. and K. Marwah (1988), “Trends in Macroeconomic Modelling: The Past Quarter Century,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 10(2), 299–315.
Bosello, F. and C. Carraro (2001), “Recycling Energy Taxes: Impacts on a Disaggregated Labour Market,” Energy Economics, 23, 569-594
Bovcnberg, A. L. and A. de Mooij (1994), “Environmental Levies and Distortionary Taxation,” American Economic Review, 94, 1085-1089.
Capros, P., P. Karadeloglou and G. Mentzas (1990), “An Empirical Assement of Macroeconometric and CGE Approaches in Policy Modelling,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 12(3), 557-585.
Carraro, C., M. Galeotti and M. Gallo (2001), “Environment Taxation and Unemployment: Some Evidence on the Double Dividend Hypothesis in Europe,” Journal of Public Economics, 26, 141-181.
Conrad, K. and A. Loschel (2005), “Recycling of Eco-Tax. Labor Market and the True Cost of Labor - A CGE Analysis,” Journal of Applied Economics, 8(2), 259-278.
De Castro, F. (2006), “The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Spain,” Applied Economics, 38, 913-924.
Devereux, M. B., C. H. Allen and J. L. Beverly (1996), “Monopolistic competition, Increasing Returns, and the Effects of Government Spending,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 28, 233–254.
England, R. E. (2007), “Motor Fuel Taxation, Energy Conservation, and Economic Development: A Regional Approach,” Ecological Economics, 61, 409-416.
Eisner, H. and J. Lawler (1975), “Tax Policy and Investment: Analysis of Survey Responses,” American Economic Review, 65(1), 206-212.
Fair, R. C. (1984), Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Fair, R. C. (1994), Testing Macroeconometric Models, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Fatas, A. and I. Mihov (2001), “The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence,” CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 2760.
Fischer, S. (1993), “The Role of Macroeconomic Growth: An Empirical Investigation,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 417-458.
Forni, L., L. Monteforte and L. Sessa (2008), “The General Equilibrium Effects of Fiscal Policy: Estimates for the Euro Area,” Journal of Public Economics, doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2008.09.010.
Gagas, M. A., G. Ducanes, N. Magtibay-Ramos, D. Qin and P. Quising (2006), “A Small Macroeconometric Model of the Philippine Economy,” Economic Modelling, 23, 45-55.
Gali, J., J. D. Lopez-Salido and J. Valles (2007), “Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption,” Journal of the European Economic Association, 5(1), 227-270.
Ganelli, G. (2003), “Useful Government Spending, Direct Crowding-out and Fiscal Policy Interdependence,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 22, 87-103.
Ganelli, G. and J. Tervala (2009), “Can Government Spending Increase Private Consumption? The Role of Complementarity,” Economics Letters, doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2009.01.007.
Garratt, A., K. Lee, M. H. Pesaran and Y. Shin (2006), Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-run Structural Approach. New York: Oxford University Press.
Giordano, R., S. Momigliano, S. Neri and R. Perotti (2007), “The Effects of Fiscal Policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR Model,” European Journal of Political Economy, 23, 707-733.
Goulder, L. H. (1995), “Environment Taxation and the Double Dividend: A Reader Guide,” International Tax and Public Finance, 2(2), 157-183.
Grubert, H. and J. Mutti (2001), “Do Taxes Influence Where U.S. Corporations Invest?” National Tax Journal, 53(4), 825-840.
Hall, R. E. and D. W. Jorgenson (1967), “Tax Policy and Investment Behavior,” American Economic Review, 57(3), 391-414.
Hartman, D. G. (1984), “Tax Policy and Foreign Direct Investment in the United States,” National Tax Journal, 37(4), 475-487.
Ho, T.-W. (2001), “The Government Spending and Private Consumption: A Panel Cointegration Analysis,” International Review of Economics and Finance, 10, 95-108.
Hori, M., C.-T. Hsieh, K. Murata and S. Shimizutani (2002), “Did the Shopping Coupon Program Stimulate Consumption? Evidence from Japanese Micro Data,” ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.12.
Hsiao, C. (1997), “Cointegration and Dynamic Simultaneous Equation Model,” Econometrica, 65(3), 647-670.
Jorgenson, D. W. (1963), “Capital Theory and Investment Behavior,” American Economic Review, 53(2), 247-259.
Kahn, J. R. and A. Farmer (1999), “The Double Dividend, Second-Best Worlds, and Real-World Environmental Policy,” Ecological Economics, 30, 433–439.
Karras, G. (1994), “Government Spending and Private Consumption: Some International Evidence,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 26, 9–22.
Keynes, J. M. (1936), The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, London: Macmillan.
Kiuila, O. and J. Sleszynski (2003), “Expected Effects of the Ecological Tax Reform for the Polish Economy,” Ecological Economics, 46, 103-120.
Klein, L. R. (1989), “Development and Prospects in Macroeconometric Modeling,” Eastern Economic Journal, 15(4), 287–304.
Klein, L. R. (1999), “Economic Stabilisation Policy: Pitfalls of of Parsimonious Modelling,” Journal of Quantitative Economics, 15(2) (speciall issue on Macroeconomics Policy Modelling).
Kuehlwein, M. (1998), “Evidence on the Substitutability between Government Purchases and Consumer Spending within Specific Spending Categories,” Economics Letters, 58, 325-329.
Kuper, G. H. (1996), “The Effect of Energy Tax on Productivity and Employment: The Case of Netherlands,” Resource and Energy Economics, 18, 137-159.
Lin, S. M. (1998), “Fuel Taxes in Taiwan: Welfare Impacts on Regional and Socioeconomic Groups,” Academia Economic Papers, 26(1), 71-100.
Macellino, M. (2002), “Some Stylized Facts on Non-systematic Fiscal Policy in the Euro Area,” CEPR Working Paper, No. 3635.
Nieh, C.-C. and T.-W. Ho (2006), “Does the Expansionary Government Spending Crowd out the Private Consumption? Cointegration Analysis in Panel Data,” The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 46, 133-148.
Oates, W. E. (1995), “Green Taxes: Can We Protect the Environment and Improve the Tax System at the Same Time?” Southern Economic Journal, 61(4), 915-922.
Ratto, M., W. Roeger, and J. in’t Veld (2009), “Quest III: An Estimated Open-economy DSGE Model of the Euro Area with Fiscal and Monetary Policy,” Economic Modelling, 26, 222-233.
Seidman, L. and K. Lewis (2004), “Transfers Plus Open Market Purchases: A Remedy for Recession,” Working Paper 04-02, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
Park, J. Y. and P. C. B. Phillips (1988), “Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes, Part 1,” Econometric Theory, 4, 468-497.
Park, J. Y. and P. C. B. Phillips (1989), “Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes, Part 2,” Econometric Theory, 5, 95-131.
Parry, I., R. Williams and L. Goulder (1999), “When Can Carbon Abatement Policies Increase Welfare? The Fundamental Role of Distorted Factor Markets,” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 37(1), 52-84.
Plesko, G. A. and R. Tannenwald (2001), “How Effective Are Canada’s Direct Tax Incentives for R&D?” Canadian Public Policy, 11(2), 241-246.
Qin, D., M. A. Cagas, G. Ducanes, X. He, R. Liu, S. Liu, N. Magtibay-Ramos, P. Quising (2007), “A Macroeconometric Model of the Chinese Economy,” Economic Modelling, 24, 814-822.
Rosen, R. (2003), “Climate Change Policies and Tax Recycling Schemes: Simulations with a Dynamic General Equilibrium of the Italian Economy,” Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies, 15(1), 26-44.
Speak, S. (1999), “Energy and Carbon Taxes and their Distributional Implications,” Energy Policy, 27, 659-667.
Taio, G. C., R. S. Tsay, K. S. Man, Y. J. Chu, K. K. Xu, C. Chen, J. L. Lin, C. M. Hsu, C. F. Lin, C. S. Mao, C. S. Ho, R. W. Liou and Y. F. Yang (1998), “A Time Series Approach to Econometric Models of Taiwan’s Economy,” Statistica Sinica, 8, 991-1044.
Tiezzi, S. (2005), “The Welfare Effects and the Distributive Impact of Carbon Taxation on Italian Households,” Energy Policy, 33, 1597–1612.
Tonn, B. and J. H. Peretz (2007), “State-level Benefits of Energy Efficiency,” Energy Policy, 35, 3665–3674.
Tsai, P.-L. (1991), “Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Taiwan: An Alternative Approach with Time-Series data,” World Development, 19(2/3), 275-285.
Valadkhani, A. (2004), “History of Macroeconometric Modelling: Lessons from Past Experence,” Journal Policy Modeling, 26, 265-281.
Weber, C. E. (2000), “Government Purchases, Government Transfers, and the Post-1970 Slowdown in U. S. Economic Growth,” Contemporary Economic Policy, 18(1), 107-123.
West, S. E. (2005), “Equity Implications of Vehicle Emissions Taxes,” Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 39 (1), 1–24.
Wallis, K. F. (2004), “Comparing Empirical Models of the Euro Economy,” Economic Modelling, 21, 735–758.
Yang, H. Y. (2000), “Fuel Taxes and the Distribution of Income in Taiwan,” The Journal of Energy and Development, 26(1), 1-18.
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top