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題名:混合型關聯結構模型結合蔓延機率應用於金融海嘯之實證研究
作者:劉凱平
作者(外文):Kai-Ping Liu
校院名稱:中華大學
系所名稱:科技管理博士學位學程
指導教授:陳文欽
楊永列
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2014
主題關鍵詞:Gumbel CopulaClayton CopulaMixture CopulaGJR-GARCH-ST模型蔓延效果Gumbel CopulaClayton CopulaMixture CopulaGJR-GARCH-ST ModelContagion Effect
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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本文以歐美4國(美、英、法、德)與亞洲5個國家地區(日本、臺灣、韓國、香港及新加坡) 股價指數為主要研究對象,取樣期間自2005年1月1日至2013年10月18日,期間涵蓋2007年後半年次級房貸危機與金融海嘯等重大金融事件。主要探討歐美4國股市分別針對5個亞洲較具國際化且股市成熟之國家或地區之股票市場,是否存在著市場報酬相關之連動性,以及求出在重大極端事件衝擊下實際造成蔓延機率之影響幅度。
為此,本文結合具不對稱相關性結構及極値特性的Copula函數,以Gumbel Copula、Clayton Copula及Mixture Copula等模型為主,搭配具Skewed-t分配之GJR-GARCH模型(GJR-GARCH-Skewed-t)來估計歐美4國股市對亞洲5個國家地區的股市間是否存在蔓延效果,藉以求出歐美4國股市對亞股間所造成的蔓延條件機率之大小,並探討當歐美國家股市在極端事件下,亞洲各國股市投資者應俱備之蔓延機制。實證結果如下:(1)美國股市受極端負向衝擊影響時新加坡受蔓延影響最鉅,隱含當美國股市大跌時,多頭部位應考慮降低新加坡股票資產比重;相對在美國股市受極端正向衝擊影響時,則香港受蔓延影響最高,隱含當美國股市大漲時,空頭部位應考慮回補香港股票資產;(2)不管歐美各國股票市場只要受極端負向衝擊時,無論規模大小,亞股受蔓延效果最明顯的國家就是新加坡;而正向衝擊時,美國股市對香港蔓延效果最明顯,英、德、法則對新加坡股市蔓延效果最顯著;(3)歐美4國股市對台灣股市,無論在正負向衝擊或規模大小上,數據皆呈現蔓延效果皆不明顯的現象,主要可能是台灣的股市市場仍不具國際化趨勢。
本文研究結果可幫助多、空方投資人在瞭解歐美股市受到極端衝擊時,對於亞洲股市間可能造成蔓延效果的影響,而在此情況下政府或投資者應俱備哪些蔓延機制以為因應,並據以建立適切的投資組合,分散極端衝擊下之投資風險。
This thesis is focusing the stock index of the following U.S., U.K, France and German, also Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea and Singapore from the period from Jan. 1, 2005 to Oct. 18, 2013. In this period, some severe financial events occurred like subprime mortgage crisis. To make research on the relationship between the crisis and the impact on these mature stock markets, and to get the contagion effect in Asian Stock market and U.S., U.K, France and German stock market.
This study applies copula functions with properties of asymmetric dependence structures, in the model of Gumbel Copula、Clayton Copula and Mixture Copulaand extreme value and the GJR-GARCH model with skewed-t distribution (GJR-GARCH-ST) from the stock market of U.S., U.K, France and Germany to estimate the marginal and joint distributions of stock returns in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Singapore. Furthermore, this study applies the conditional probability of contagion to investigate the possibility of the extreme co-movement among Asian stock markets given that an extreme positive or negative shock occurs in one of them. The empirical results are as follows: (1) On the time of U.S. stock market dropping sharply, then the stock market of Singapore was affected mostly. The long side should lower the holding of Singapore assets. On the other hand, when the U.S. stock market was affected positively, the Hong Kong stock market was affected sharply too. It represented that the short side would cover the shorted assets in Hong Kong.(2) In the time of hitting hardly in the U.S. and European market, the most affected country would be Singapore no matter the scale of collapse. Meanwhile, the stock market of U.S play a most important role the stock market of Hong Kong. And, the stock market of U.K. German and France affect Singapore barely.(3)For the stock market in Taiwan, we scarcely found the connection between Taiwan stock market and U.S. or European market.
The conclusions can help bullish and bearish investors realize the co-movement between Asian markets and U.S. or European market where the investor can allocate their assets to evaluate diversify risks under extreme impact but also the government can make the policy reduce the impact of financial crisis.
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