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題名:股價指數期貨對股票市場波動性的影響
書刊名:企業管理學報
作者:余尚武 引用關係吳嘉欽
作者(外文):Yu, Shang-wuWu, Chia-chin
出版日期:2000
卷期:47
頁次:頁135-160
主題關鍵詞:價格波動GARCH模型到期效果Price volatilityGARCH modelExpiration effect
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(4) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:4
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:16
     國內股市交易已經逐漸受到國際間的重視,而在國際化的同時,市場 必定會出現許多相對應的衍生性金融商品。有鑑於股價指數期貨與股票市場的密 切關係,股價指數期貨的交易是否會導致現有股票交易市場的波動性產生長期的 重大變化實有進一步探討的必要。基於此,本研究運用修正後的Levene統計量 與GARCH模型,針對美國、英國、法國、日本、澳洲與香港等六個國家或地區 的股價指數加以實證,並與國內外相關研究做一比較分析。實證研究結果發現: 一、只有部份的股價指數之到期效果與週末效果顯著存在。 二、各組樣本資料的GARCH效果均顯著;而股價指數期貨上市後對股價指數波 動性的影響即使存在,亦應只是部份的短期現象。
     The introduction of index futures provided a vehicle for market makers to hedge their share-holdings, and this risk reduction for market makers will lead to a drop of the bid-ask spread in the spot market. It has been alleged that the existence of a futures market increases the price volatility of the underlying asset. While this is theoretically possible, the empirical studies indicate that futures do not increase the price volatility of the corresponding spot market. A number of empirical studies regarding the effects of index futures on the volatility of the underlying index generally support the view that index futures do not increase the long-run volatility of the spot price. The expiration effect is the only well-documented case of futures increasing the price volatility of equities. To test whether a change in market efficiency occurs with the introduction of futures trading, and to consider the time-varying volatility of stock returns, this study uses the modified GARCH model that captures structural change in the autocorrelation of stock volatility. The modified GARCH imposes an autorregressive structure on conditional variance, allowing volatility shocks to persist over time, and captures structural shift in regime. The major empirical results are as following: 1.All of the empirical daily data test results indicate that GARCH effects are significant during the periods considered. And, there is no statistical evidence that stock index futures increase the price volatility of the corresponding spot market. 2.The expiration effect and weekend effect are not significant at all empirical data.
期刊論文
1.Pericli, A.、Koutmos, G.(1997)。Index futures and options and stock market volatility。The Journal of Futures Markets,17(8),957-974。  new window
2.Allan, H.、Nicholls, D.(1991)。The Impact of Index Futures Markets on Australian Share Market Volatility。Journal of Business Finance and Accountings,18(2),267-280。  new window
3.Hiraki, Takato、Maberly, Edwin D.、Takezawa, Nobuya(1995)。The information content of end-of-the-day index futures returns: International evidence from the Osaka Nikkei 225 futures contract。Journal of Banking and Finance,19,921-936。  new window
4.Engel, R. F.、Lillien, D. M.、Robins, R. P.(1987)。Estimating time varying risk premia in the term structure: the ARCH-M model。Econometrica,55,391-407。  new window
5.Brorsen, B. W.(1991)。Futures trading, transactions costs and stock market volatility。Journal of Futures Markets,11,153-163。  new window
6.Antoniou, Antonios、Holmes, Phil(1995)。Futures Trading, Information and Spot Price Volatility: Evidence for the FTSE-100 Stock Index Futures Contract Using GARCH。Journal of Banking & Finance,19(1),117-129。  new window
7.Edwards, F. R.(1988)。Futures Trading and Cash Market Volatility: Stock Index and Interest Rates Futures。Journal of Futures Markets,8,421-439。  new window
8.Baldauf, Brad、Santoni, G. J.(1991)。Stock Price Volatility: Some Evidence from an ARCH Model。Journal of Futures Markets,11,191-200。  new window
9.Brown, M. B.、Forsythe, A. B.(1974)。Robust Tests for the Equality of Variance。Journal of American Statistical Association,69,364-367。  new window
10.Cheung, Y. W.、Ng, L. K.(1991)。The Dynamics of S&P 500 Index and S&P 500 Futures Intraday Price Volatilities。Review of Futures Markets,9(2),121-154。  new window
11.Chan, K.(1992)。A Further Analysis of the Lead-Lag Relationship between the Case Market and the Index Futures Market。Review of Financial Studies,5(1),123-152。  new window
12.Conover, W. J.、Johnson, Merk E.、Johnson, Myrle M.(1981)。A Comparative Study of Tests for Homogeneity of Variances, with Applications to the Outer Continental Shelf Bidding Data。Technometrics,23,351-361。  new window
13.French, K. R.、Schwert, G. W.、Stambaugh, R. F.(1987)。Expected Stock Return and Volatility。Journal of Financial Economics,19,3-29。  new window
14.Herbst, A. F.、McCormack, J. P.、West, E. N.(1987)。Investigation of a Lead-Lag Relationship between Spot Indices and Their Futures Contracts。Journal of Futures Markets,7,373-382。  new window
15.Gerety, M. S.、Mulherin, J. H.(1991)。Patterns in Intraday Stock Market Volatility, Past and Present。Financial Analysts Journal,47,71-79。  new window
16.Maberly, E. D.、Allen, D. S.、Gilbert, R. F.(1989)。Stock Index Futures and Cash Market Volatility。Financial Analysts Journal,45,75-77。  new window
17.Lockwood, L. J.、Linn, S. C.(1990)。An Examination of Stock Market Return Volatility During Overnight and Intraday Periods 1964-1989。Journal of Finance,45(2),591-601。  new window
18.Laatsch, F. E.、Schwarz, T. V.(1988)。Price Discovery and Risk Transfer in Stock Index Cash and Futures Markets。Review of Futures Markets,7,272-289。  new window
19.Sterge, J. A.(1989)。On the Distribution of Financial Futures Price Changes。Financial Analyst Journal,45,75-78。  new window
20.Najand, M.、Yung, K.(1994)。Conditional Heteroskedasticity and the Weekend Effect in S&P 500 Index Futures。Journal of Business Finance and Accounting,21(4),603-612。  new window
21.Mcleod, A. L.、Li, W. K.(1983)。Diagnostic Checking ARMA Time Series Model Using Squared-Residual Autocorrelations。Journal of Monetary Economics,10,139-163。  new window
22.Edwards, F. R.(1988)。Does Futures Trading Increase Stock Market Volatility?。Financial Analysts Journal,44,63-69。  new window
23.Becketti, S.、Roberts, D. J.(1990)。Will increased regulation of stock index futures reduce stock market volatility。Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review,75(6),33-46。  new window
24.Harris, L.(1989)。S&P 500 cash stock price volatilities。The Journal of Finance,44(5),1155-1175。  new window
25.Damodaran, A.(1990)。Index Futures and Stock Market Volatility。Review of Futures Markets,9,442-457。  new window
26.Lee, Sang Bin、Ohk, Ki Yool(1992)。Stock Index Futures Listing and Structural Change in Time-Varying Volatility。Journal of Futures Markets,12(5),493-509。  new window
27.Stoll, Hans R.、Whaley, Robert E.(1990)。The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns。Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,25(4),441-468。  new window
28.Abhyankar, Abhay H.(1995)。Return and volatility dynamics in the FT-SE 100 stock index and stock index futures markets。The Journal of Futures Markets,15(4),457-488。  new window
29.French, Kenneth R.、Roll, Richard(1986)。Stock Return Variances: The Arrival of Information and the Reaction of Traders。Journal of Financial Economics,17(1),5-26。  new window
30.Chou, R. Y.(1988)。Volatility Persistence and Stock Valuation: Some Empirical Evidence Using GARCH。Journal of Applied Econometrics,3,279-294。  new window
31.Akgiray, Vedat(1989)。Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Time Series of Stock Returns: Evidence and Forecasts。The Journal of Business,62(1),55-80。  new window
32.Engle, Robert F.、Bollerslev, Tim(1986)。Modelling the Persistence of Conditional Variances。Econometric Reviews,5(1),1-50。  new window
33.Bollerslev, Tim(1986)。Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity。Journal of Econometrics,31(3),307-327。  new window
34.Bollerslev, Tim(1987)。A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return。The Review of Economics and Statistics,69(3),542-547。  new window
35.Chan, Kalok、Chan, K. C.、Karolyi, G. Andrew(1991)。Intraday Volatility in the Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Markets。The Review of Financial Studies,4(4),657-684。  new window
36.Engle, Robert F.(1982)。Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation。Econometrica,50(4),987-1008。  new window
37.Mandelbrot, Benoit B.(1963)。The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices。The Journal of Business,36(4),394-419。  new window
學位論文
1.黃也白(1994)。股價指數期貨上市對股價波動性的影響(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.陳業琇(1996)。股價指數期貨交易對股票價格波動影響之實證研究(碩士論文)。中原大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Freris, A. F.(1990)。The Effect of the Introduction of Stock Index Futures on Stock Prices: the Experience of Hong Kong 1984-1987。Amsterdam:Pacific Basin Capital Markets Research。  new window
2.Efron, B.(1982)。The Jackknife, the Bootstrap, and Other Resampling Plans。Philadelphia, PA:Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics。  new window
 
 
 
 
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