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題名:美國與臺灣股價共移程度之研究--分數共整合之應用
書刊名:東吳經濟商學學報
作者:張巧宜 引用關係
作者(外文):Chang, Chiao-yi
出版日期:2003
卷期:40
頁次:頁99-121
主題關鍵詞:分數共整合股價共移性Fractional cointegrationStock priceComovement
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:15
  • 點閱點閱:53
全球區域經濟整合為國際經貿之普遍現象,有關國際股市之連動性亦為學者注意的議題之一,台灣與美國經貿關係緊密,相關文獻常得到兩國股價具有顯著相關性之結果,但近年台灣股價與美國股市似乎逐漸有脫勾之現象,本文試圖以傳統共整合分析法,探討兩國股價之關係,並納入平均數復歸的概念,比較分數共整合分析之結果,實證結果發現,美國道瓊工業指數、那斯達克指數與台灣大盤指數近年已不具任何共整合關係,但美國代表科技股的那斯達克指數與台灣電子類股股價之間仍然存在一組分數共整合關係,惟傳統整數共整合分析法不足以捕捉此一結果;另外,若進一步分別探討上漲與下跌期間,發現美國股市在空頭期間對台灣股市仍具有分數共整合關係'顯示台灣投資人在股價下跌時較為保守的心態。
This is a common situation in international relationships that regional economic integration globally becomes more and more strong. The topic about linkage of international capital markets was getting more interesting recent, for example: the American business trend affects the economy of Taiwan deeply. The researchers could find the evidences with the linkage between America and Taiwan stock prices. This paper tries to discuss the relationship using integer and fractional cointegration analysis to recheck the topic. We get the results as following: there are not cointegration relationships between Dow-Jones Industrial or NASDAQ Composite and Taiwan Weighted Average index. Besides that, NASDAQ Composite composed mainly by hi- Tec industry exists a fractional cointegration relationship with Taiwan-electrons index while Johansen cointegration test fail to support cointegrational pattern. If we focus the up or down trends, there is fractional cointegration relationship between the American stock and the Taiwan stock in the bear market.
Other
1.Jeon, B. N. and T. C. Chiang(1991)。A System of Stock Prices in World Stock Exchanges: Common Stochastic Trends for 1975-90。  new window
期刊論文
1.Granger, C. W. J.(1980)。Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models。Journal of Econometrics,14(2),227-238。  new window
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3.Arshanapalli, B.、Doukas, J.(1993)。International stock market linkages: Evidence from the pre-and post-October 1987 period。Journal of Banking and Finance,17(1),193-208。  new window
4.Arshanapalli, B.、Doukas, J.、Lang, L.(1995)。Pre and post-October1987 stock market linkages between U.S. and Asian markets。Pacific-Basin Finance Journal,3,57-73。  new window
5.Kasa, K.(1992)。Common Stochastic Trends in International Stock Markets。Journal of Monetary Economics,29(1),95-124。  new window
6.Bachman, D.、Choi, J. J.、Jeon, B. N.、Kopecky, K. J.(1996)。Common Factors in International Stock Prices : Evidence from A Cointegration Study。International Review of Financial Analysis,5,39-53。  new window
7.Solnik, B.(1974)。Why not diversify internationally rather than domestically?。Financial Analysts Journal,30,48-54。  new window
8.Chung, P. J.、Liu, D. J.(1994)。Common Stochastic Trend in Pacific Rim Stock Markets。Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,34(3),241-259。  new window
9.Ghosh, A.、Saidi, R.、Johnson, K. H.(1999)。Who Moves the Asia-Pacific Stock Markets-US or Japan? Empirical Evidence Based on the Theory of Cointegration?。The Financial Review,34(1),159-169。  new window
10.McDonald, J. G.(1973)。French mutual fund performance: Evaluation of internationally-diversified portfolios。Journal of Finance,28(5),1161-1180。  new window
11.Chan, K. C.、Gup, B. E.、Pan, M. S.(1992)。An Empirical Analysis of Stock Prices in Major Asian Markets and the United States。The Financial Review,27(2),289-308。  new window
12.Geweke, J. F.、Porter‐Hudak, S.(1983)。The estimation and application of long memory time series models。Journal of Time Series Analysis,4(4),221-238。  new window
13.徐守德(19951000)。亞洲股市間共整合關係之實證研究。證券市場發展,7(4)=28,33-57。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.Granger, C. W. J.(1981)。Some Properties of Time Series Data and Their Use in Econometric Model Specification。Journal of Econometrics,16(1),121-130。  new window
15.Schwert, G. William(1989)。Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?。Journal of Finance,44(5),1115-1153。  new window
16.Dickey, David A.、Fuller, Wayne A.(1981)。Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root。Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society,49(4),1057-1072。  new window
17.Grubel, Herbert G.(1968)。Internationally Diversified Portfolios: Welfare Gains and Capital Flows。The American Economic Review,58(5),1299-1314。  new window
18.Johansen, Søren、Juselius, Katarina(1990)。Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration: with Applications to the Demand for Money。Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,52(2),169-210。  new window
19.Baillie, Richard T.、Bollerslev, Tim(1994)。Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange Rate Dynamics。The Journal of Finance,49(2),737-745。  new window
20.Engle, Robert F.、Granger, Clive W. J.(1987)。Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing。Econometrica,55(2),251-276。  new window
21.Dickey, David A.、Fuller, Wayne A.(1979)。Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root。Journal of the American Statistical Association,74(366),427-431。  new window
其他
1.王毓敏、廖四郎及徐守德(2000)。亞洲股市間的關係--動態過程的檢定。  延伸查詢new window
2.何彥慶(2000)。九零年前後,臺灣加權股價指數與美國道瓊工業指數、日本股價指數的聯動關係之研究。  延伸查詢new window
3.楊踐為及賴怡洵(1998)。美、日、香港與臺灣四地股價指數連動關係之探討。  延伸查詢new window
4.Agmon, T.(1972)。The Relationships among Equity Markets: A Study of Share Price Comovements in the United States United Kingdom, Germany and Japan。  new window
5.Agmon, T.(1973)。Country Risk-the Significance of the Country Factor to Share Price Movements in the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan。  new window
6.Cheung, C. F. and R. T. Baillie(1993)。Small Sample Bias in Conditional Sum-of-Squares Estimators of Fractionally Integrated ARMA Models。  new window
7.Hamilton, J. D.(1994)。Tine Series Analysis。  new window
8.Li, W. K. and A. I. Mcleod(1986)。Fractional Time Series Modelling。  new window
9.Masih, A. M. M. and R. Masib(1997)。Dynamic Linkage and the Propagation Mechanism Driving Major International Stock Markets: An Analysis of the Pre- and Post-Crash Eras。  new window
10.Merton, R. C.(1982)。Continuous-time Finance。  new window
11.Pynnonen, S. and J. Knif(1998)。Common Long-term and Short-term Price Memory in Two Scandinavian Stock Markets。  new window
12.Sowell, F. B.(1992)。Modeling Long-run Behavior with the Fractional ARMA Model。  new window
 
 
 
 
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