:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
題名:政策跨時搭配與農產品價格的動態調整
書刊名:人文及社會科學集刊
作者:王葳胡士文
作者(外文):Wang, VeyHu, Shih-wen
出版日期:2003
卷期:15:4
頁次:頁595-625
主題關鍵詞:動態調整政策宣告政策跨時搭配時差效果Dynamic adjustmentPolicy announcementIntertemporal policy mixTime-lag effect
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:14
  • 點閱點閱:47
近二十年來,有為數眾多的文獻實證分析貨幣供給量變動對農產品價格與製造業產品價格的影響;然而許多國家在面臨經濟不景氣時,政府不只採行貨幣政策,亦會考慮財政政策,甚至兩種政策相互搭配。因此,本文除分別討論貨幣政策宣告與財政政策宣告對經濟體系的影響外,亦探討政策跨時搭配之下,經濟體系的動態調整,期待為多變的農產品價格走勢提供充分的理論基礎。
本文發現:(1)貨幣於長期具中立性,但財政政策則否。(2)若政府宣告貨幣供給量即將增加,在宣告之際,會造成農產品價格跳躍式地上漲;反之,若政府宣告將增加政府支出,在宣告之際,會造成農產品價格跳躍式地下跌;因此,一旦政府宣告未來將採行政策跨時搭配,則宣告之際,農產品價格可能上漲亦可能下跌,此與政策宣告的時差效果與政策實施的數量效果之大小有關。(3)在政策跨時搭配的情況下,待貨幣政策執行之後,農產品價格將呈現持續下跌的走勢,但製造業產品價格的走勢須視貨幣需求的利率半彈性值或製造業產品需求的價格彈性值之大小而定。
Over the last two decades, a substantial body of empirical studies has been devoted to examining what dynamic patterns of agricultural and manufactured product prices will be exhibited when the economy experiences a monetary shock. Countries that suffer a recession might consider using monetary policy, fiscal policy, or even both as the same time. Thus, this paper investigates the effects of monetary and fiscal policy announcements on the economy. In addition, the effect of an intertemporal policy mix on the economy is also discussed.
We find that (1) money neutrality still holds. (2) At the moment of an announcement, agricultural product prices jump quickly if the government announces an increase in money supply but drop if the government announces an increase in government expenditures. However, the change in agricultural product prices could go either way at the moment of annoucement of a mixed policy. It depends on the time-lag effect of the announcement and the quantity effect of implemention. (3) Under a mixed pilicy, if the government implements a monetary policy first, agricultural product prices will decrease continuously but the time path of manufactured product prices will depend on the values of the interest rate semi-elasticity of the demand for money and the price elasticity vis-a-vis the demand for manufactured peoducts.
期刊論文
1.Belongia, M. T.(1991)。Monetary Policy and the Farm/Nonfarm Price Ratio: A Comparison of Effects in Alternative Models。Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review,73,30-46。  new window
2.Bessler, David A.(1984)。Relative Prices and Money: A Vector Autoregression on Brazilian Data。American Journal of Agricultural Economics,66(1),25-30。  new window
3.Bordo, M. D.(1980)。The Effects of Monetary Change on Relative Commodity Prices and the Role of Long-Term Contracts。Journal of Political Economy,88,1088-1109。  new window
4.Choe, Young Chan、Koo, Won W.(1993)。Monetary Impacts on Prices in the Short and Long Run: Further Results for the United States。Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,18(2),211-224。  new window
5.Frankel, J. A.(1986)。Expectations and Commodity Price Dynamics: The Overshooting Model。American Journal of Agricultural Economics,68,344-348。  new window
6.Lai, C. C.、Hu, S. W.、Wang, V.(1996)。Commodity Price Dynamics and Anticipated Shocks。American Journal of Agricultural Economics,78,982-990。  new window
7.陳師孟、蔡雪芳(19880300)。完全預期下之政策跨時搭配與滙率動態。經濟論文叢刊,16(1),1-23。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.Orden, D.(1986)。Money and Agriculture: The Dynamics of Money Financial Market-Agricultural Trade Linkages。Agricultural Economics Research,38(3),14-28。  new window
9.Taylor, J. S.、Spriggs, J.(1989)。Effects of the Monetary Macro-economy on Canadian Agricultural Prices。Canadian Journal of Economics,22(2),278-289。  new window
10.Dornbusch, Rudiger(1976)。Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics。Journal of Political Economy,84(6),1161-1176。  new window
11.Orden, D.、Robertson, J. C.(1990)。Monetary Impacts on Prices in the Short and Long Run: Some Evidence from New Zealand。American Journal of Agricultural Economics,72,160-171。  new window
12.Moutos, T.、Vines, D.(1992)。Output, Inflation and Commodity Prices。Oxford Economic Papers,44,355-372。  new window
13.Devadoss, S.、Meyers, W. H.(1987)。Relative Prices and Money: Further Results for the United States。American Journal of Agricultural Economics,69,838-842。  new window
14.Chambers, R. G.(1984)。Agricultural and Financial Market Interdependence in the Short Run。American Journal of Agricultural Economics,66,12-24。  new window
15.Barnhart, S. W.(1989)。The Effects of Macroeconomic Announcements on Commodity Prices。American Journal of Agricultural Economics,71,389-403。  new window
16.Frankel, J. A.、Hardouvelis, G. A.(1985)。Commodity Prices, Money Surprises and Fed Credibility。Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,17,425-437。  new window
17.Obstfeld, M.(1986)。Overshooting Agricultural Commodity Markets and Public Policy: Discussion。American Journal of Agricultural Economics,68,420-421。  new window
圖書
1.賴景昌(1994)。國際金融理論。臺北:茂昌圖書有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
:::
無相關博士論文
 
無相關書籍
 
無相關著作
 
QR Code
QRCODE