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題名：顧客關係管理之重覆購買行為預測模式
書刊名：行銷評論
作者：謝汶進／塗婉吟
作者(外文)：Hsieh, Wen-jin／Tu, Wan-yin
出版日期：2008
卷期：5:2
頁次：頁197-220
主題關鍵詞：行銷管理；顧客關係管理；顧客重覆購買；隨機模式；Marketing management；Customer relationship management；Customers repeat purchases；Stochastic model
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:26
在顧客關係管理(Customer Relationship Management, CRM)領域中，管理者藉由顧客相關歷史購買記錄，探討分析顧客未來的購買行爲，期能更有效率地管理顧客關係，以提升產品的擴散率與重購率，將行銷資源做最有效的配置，且擬定適當的行銷活動，替企業組織創造更大利潤，因此探討分析顧客未來可能的重覆購買行爲是企業組織制定行銷活動或經營決策的首要工作。本研究首先以實務與理論結合方式探討分析顧客重覆購買問題之架構；其次，依據上述問題的架構，以顧客基礎分析(Customer Base Analysis)建立顧客重覆購買行爲之預測模式；最後，以最大概似估計法(MLE)進行模式參數校估、模式確認與預測，並探討分析顧客未來的購買型態，以作爲擬定銷售市場中產品、訂價、通路及推廣等行銷策略之基礎。
In Customer Relationship Management, it is important to know which customers repeat purchasing behavior and to be able predict their future purchase patterns. Therefore, in the study we develop a simple stochastic model in accord with the pattern and characteristic of customer repeat purchasing behavior to forecast the quantity. First, we discuss the structure of customers purchase problem. Second, we develop a customer repeat purchasing behavior forecasting model. Final, the study estimate the parameter by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), calculate the customer purchasing possibility by a mixture of beta-geometric distributions, and estimate the repeat purchasing possibility and quantity in Microsoft Excel. Hence, it could actually be a basis of developing efficient marketing strategy.
期刊論文
1.Berger, P. D.、Bolton, R. N.、Bowman, D.、Briggs, E.、Kumar, V.、Parasuraman, A.、Terry, C.(2002)。Marketing Actions and the Value of Customer Assets: A Framework for Customer Asset Management。Journal of Service Research，5(1)，39-54。  new window
2.Ngai, E. W. T.(2005)。Customer Relationship Management Research (1992-2002): An Academic Literature Review and Classification。Marketing Intelligence & Planning，23(6)，582-605。  new window
3.Ansari, A.、Mela, C. F.(2003)。E-Customization。Journal of Marketing Research，40(2)，131-145。  new window
4.Bodapati, A. V.(2008)。Recommendation Systems with Purchase Data。Journal of Marketing Research，45(1)，77-93。  new window
5.Hanssens, D. M.、Thorps, D.、Finkbeiner, C.(2008)。Marketing When Customer Equit Matters。Harvard Business Review，86(5)，117-123。  new window
6.Hardie, B. G. S.、Peter, S. F.、Wisniewski, M.(1998)。An Empirical Comparison of New Product Trial Forecasting Models。Journal of Forecasting，17(3/4)，209-229。  new window
7.Kamakura, W.、Mela, C. F.、Ansari, A.、Bodapati, A.、Fader, P.、Iyengar, R.、Wilcox, R.(2005)。Choice Models and Customer Relationship Management。Marketing Letters，16(3)，279-291。  new window
8.Morrison, D. G.、Perry, A.(1970)。Some Data Based Models for Analyzing Sales Fluctuations。Decision Sciences，1(3/4)，258-274。  new window
9.Rosset, S.、Neumann, E.、Eick, U.、Vatnik, N.(2003)。Customer Lifetime Value Models for Decision Support。Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery，7(3)，321-339。  new window
10.Gupta, S.、Lehmann, D. R.(2003)。Customers As Assets。Journal of Interactive Marketing，17(1)，9-24。  new window
11.Hogan, J. E.、Lehmann, D. R.、Merino, M.、Srivastava, R. K.、Thomas, J. S.、Verhoef, P. C.(2002)。Linking Customer Assets to Financial Performance。Journal of Service Research，5(1)，26-38。  new window
12.Venkatesan, Rajkumar、Kumar, V.(2004)。A Customer Lifetime Value Framework for Customer Selection and Resource Allocation Strategy。Journal of Marketing，68，106-125。  new window
13.Rust, R. T.、Chung, T. S.(2006)。Marketing models of service and relationships。Marketing Science，25(6)，560-580。  new window
14.Gupta, S.、Lehmann, D. R.、Stuart, J. A.(2004)。Valuing Customers。Journal of Marketing Research，41(1)，7-18。  new window
15.Pfeifer, Phillip E.、Carraway, Robert L.(2000)。Modeling Customer Relationships As Markov Chains。Journal of Interactive Marketing，14(2)，43-55。  new window
16.Gupta, Sunil、Hanssens, Dominique、Hardie, Bruce、Kahn, Wiliam、Kumar, V.、Lin, Nathaniel、Sriram, S.、Ravishanker, Nalini(2006)。Modeling Customer Lifetime Value。Journal of Service Research，9(2)，139-155。  new window
17.Johnson, M. D.、Seines, F.(2004)。Customer Protfolio Management: Toward Dynamic Theory of Exchange Relationships。Journal of Marketing，68(2)，117。  new window
18.Blattberg, Robert C.、Deighton, John M.(1996)。Manage Marketing by the Customer Equity Test。Harvard Business Review，74(4)，136-144。  new window
19.Berger, Paul D.、Nasr, Nada I.(1998)。Customer Lifetime Value: Marketing Models and Applications。Journal of Interactive Marketing，12(1)，17-30。  new window
20.Rust, Roland T.、Lemon, Katherine N.、Zeithaml, Valarie A.(2004)。Return on Marketing: Using Customer Equity to Focus Marketing Strategy。Journal of Marketing，68(1)，109-127。  new window
21.Colombo, Richard、Jiang, Weina(1999)。A Stochastic RFM Model。Journal of Interactive Marketing，13(3)，2-12。  new window
22.Fader, Peter S.、Hardie, Bruce G. S.(2001)。Forecasting Repeat Sales at CDNOW: A Case Study。Interfaces，31(3S)，94-107。  new window
23.Fader, Peter S.、Hardie, Bruce G. S.、Lee, Ka Lok(2005)。Counting Your Customers: the Easy Way: An Alternative to the Pareto/NBD Model。Marketing Science，24(2)，275-284。  new window
24.Jain, Dipak、Singh, Siddhartha S.(2002)。Customer Lifetime Value Research in Marketing: A Review and Future Directions。Journal of Interactive Marketing，16(2)，34-47。  new window
25.Mulhern, Francis J.(1999)。Customer Profitability Analysis: Measurement, Concentration, and Research Directions。Journal of Interactive Marketing，13(1)，25-40。  new window
26.Reinartz, Werner J.、Kumar, V.(2003)。The Impact of Customer Relationship Characteristics on Profitable Lifetime Duration。Journal of Marketing，67(1)，77-99。  new window
27.Schmittlein, David C.、Robert, Peterson A.(1994)。Customer Base Analysis: An Industrial Purchase Process Application。Marketing Science，13(1)，41-67。  new window
28.Schmittlein, David C.、Morrison, Donald G.、Colombo, Richard(1987)。Counting Your Customers: Who are They and What will They Do Next?。Management Science，33(1)，1-24。  new window
學位論文
1.李章偉(2001)。資料庫行銷之顧客價值分析：以3C流通業為例(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.陳信良(2005)。以層級貝氏統計方法建構一般化迦瑪分配購買期間預測模型(碩士論文)。臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.陳薏棻(2006)。應用層級貝式理論於跨商品類別之顧客購買期間預測模型(碩士論文)。臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Kumar, V.、Reinartz, W. J.(2006)。Customer Relationship Management: A Databased Approach。New York：John Wiley。  new window
2.Armstrong, J. S.(2002)。Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners。Kluwer Academic Publishers。  new window
3.Ehrenberg, A. S. C.(1988)。Repeat Buying。London：New York：Charles Griffin and Company：Oxford University Press。  new window
4.Hughes, Arthur M.(1994)。Strategic Database Marketing: The Masterplan for Starting and Managing a Profitable, Customer-Based Marketing Program。Probus Publishing Company。  new window
 
 
 
 
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