目的：在全民健保制度下，國內的醫療產業面臨競爭的壓力，例如品質、成本與經營績效的競爭，醫務管理者藉由引入資訊科技，可改善醫療組織之營運績效與提供更好的服務。因此本文的目的在於提出預測方法，輔助醫務管理者面對眾多資訊科技知識項目，預測其發展趨勢，以選擇與導入資訊科技。方法：本文提出基於灰色系統理論的評估架構，以應用在醫務管理之資訊科技知識項目爲研究對象，預測其未來發展趨勢。經由Google scholar搜尋引擎蒐集資料，以資訊科技知識與醫務管理爲關鍵詞，所得之論文或圖書筆數表示知識項目應用在醫務管理之普及性，藉由灰色模型產生預測資料，並利用平均絕對誤差率(mean absolute percentage error)指標表示預測精確性。結果：依照知識之生命週期與其被使用狀態，本研究調查應用在醫務管理的資訊科技知識項目所呈現的趨勢，基本上包含兩大類，其一爲成長階段之知識項目，其二爲衰退期階段之知識項目，並討論應用在醫務管理之資訊科技知識項目的特性。結論：面對資訊科技知識的多樣化，醫院管理者必須掌握資訊科技相關知識項目之發展趨勢，透過灰預測與分析，定位知識項目所處的狀態與發展階段，可作爲引入醫務管理領域之決策參考。

Objectives: Under the regulation of the National Health Insurance program (NHI), the healthcare industry faces a competitive environment as each organization must compete with others in quality, cost and performance. Healthcare managers might introduce information technology (IT) to improve performance and to offer better service. The objective of this paper is to propose a method to help healthcare managers forecast the trends in development and to choose / introduce appropriate IT items. Methods: We propose a feasible appraisal structure based on grey theory to predict the trends in IT knowledge as applied in the field of healthcare management. In this study, we exploited the Google scholar search engine to collect raw data by keywords referring to items of IT knowledge i and healthcare management. The forecasting data was produced by grey theory, while the forecasting accuracy was indexed by mean absolute percentage error. Results: We classified the developmental trends in IT knowledge as applied in healthcare management into two categories, fading trends and increasing trends. Based on life cycle and application status, we analyzed and discriminated from these items of IT knowledge. Conclusions: Facing multiple pressures, managers in the healthcare industry could exploit IT to alleviate the burden and improve performance. In this paper, we utilized a grey model to forecast developmental trends and to identify the status of IT knowledge. This information could help healthcare managers introduce new IT to healthcare organizations.