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題名：商品市場需求面干擾與最適匯率目標區--物價與匯率雙重預期下之考量
書刊名：東吳經濟商學學報
作者：廖培賢 引用關係／陳怡螢
作者(外文)：Liaw, Peir-shyan／Chen, Yi-yin
出版日期：2011
卷期：75
頁次：頁69-131
主題關鍵詞：最適匯率目標區；蜜月效果；布朗運動；資本移動性；The optimal exchange rate band；Honeymoon effect；Brownian motion；The normative perspective issue
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  • 共同引用共同引用:34
  • 點閱點閱:35
本文以Frenkel及Rodriguez（1982）、Sutherland（1995）與Lai及Chang（2001）的理論架構為基礎，引入開放經濟體系的Lucas總供給函數，並納進民眾對匯率與物價兩個雙預期變數，從而建構一個小型開放經濟體系模型，同時利用Lai、Chang及Fang （2002，2011）「目標區雙預期變數蜜月效果新圖解法」與陳秀華（民93）「最適目標區間新圖解法」技巧，來討論：貨幣當局在極小化社會福利損失的前提下，匯率目標區的區間寬窄應該如何選取的規範性（normative perspective）議題？我們的結論顯示：一旦經濟體系面臨商品市場需求干擾，在資本移動程度相對較大（小）的情況下，若貨幣當局相對較為重視匯率的波動，則應採匯率目標區體制抑或浮動匯率體制（匯率目標區體制抑或固定匯率體制）；反之，若貨幣當局相對較為重視物價的波動，則應採行浮動匯率體制（匯率目標區體制抑或固定匯率體制），這個結論與Sutherland（1995）、陳秀華（民93）等探討最適匯率目標區間既有文獻的結論有很大的不同。
This paper presents a macroeconomic model in an open economy based on the framework developed by Frenkel and Rodriguez (1982), Sutherland (1995) and Lai and Chang (2001). In view of the changes in people's dual expectations regarding price and exchange rate, and the Lucas aggregate supply function under open economy, the model uses the economically intuitive dual expectations graphical approach developed by Lai et al. (2002)(2011) and the optimal exchange rate band graphical approach developed by graphical approach developed by Chen (2004) to discover the normative perspective issue of the choice of the optimal exchange rate band if the monetary authority attempts to minimize the social welfare loss. This paper concludes that if the economic system faces the disturbance derived from commodity demand and the monetary authority cares the fluctuation of exchange rate, the monetary authority must adopt the exchange rate target zone regime or the flexible exchange rate regime (the exchange rate target zone regime or the fixed exchange rate regime) under the capital mobility degree is relatively larger (smaller). On the other side, if the monetary authority cares the fluctuation of price, the monetary authority must adopt the flexible exchange rate regime (the exchange rate target zone regime or the fixed exchange rate regime) under the capital mobility degree is relatively larger (smaller). This finding is found to be different from those proposed by Sutherland (1995) and Chen (2004).
期刊論文
1.Bauer, C.、Grauwe, P. D.、Reitz, S.(2009)。Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Target Zone--A Heterogeneous Expectations Approach。Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control，33(2)，329-344。  new window
2.Frenkel, Jacob A.、Goldstein, Morris(1986)。A Guide to Target Zones。IMF Staff Papers，33(4)，633-673。  new window
3.黃秋瓊、胡士文(20080600)。匯率目標區和股價之穩定。交大管理學報，28(1)，169-203。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.曹添旺、張文雅(20020900)。國際金融干擾與最適匯率目標區。經濟論文，30(3)，247-273。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Klein, Michael W.(1990)。Playing with the Band: Dynamic Effects of Target Zones in an Open Economy。International Economic Review，31(4)，757-772。  new window
6.Sutherland, Alan(1995)。Monetary and Real Shocks and the Optimal Target Zone。European Economic Review，39(1)，161-172。  new window
7.Lucas, Robert E. Jr.(1973)。Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs。American Economic Review，63(3)，326-334。  new window
8.Flood, R. P.、Garber, P. M.(1991)。The Linkage between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates。Quarterly Journal of Economics，106(4)，1367-1372。  new window
9.Mundell, Robert A.(1963)。Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates。Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science，29(4)，475-485。  new window
10.朱美麗、曹添旺(19870900)。產出水準、股票市場與滙率動態調整。經濟論文，15(2)，45-59。new window  延伸查詢new window
11.陳昭南、賴景昌、張文雅(19850900)。貶值､工資調整指數與經濟政策:Fleming命題的重新評估。經濟論文，13(2)，131-141。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.Chen, Chau‐nan、Lai, Ching‐chong、Chang, Wen‐ya(1987)。The Tight Money Effect, Wage Indexation and Macroeconomic Policy: The Fleming Model Revisited。Journal of Economic Studies，14(5)，54-62。  new window
13.Fleming, J. Marcus(1962)。Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rates。IMF Staff Papers，9(3)，369-379。  new window
14.Frenkel, Jacob A.、Rodriguez, Carlos A.(1982)。Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Overshooting Hypothesis。IMF Staff Papers，29(1)，1-30。  new window
15.Im, J. H.(2001)。Optimal Currency Target Zones: How Wide Should Exchange Rate Bands Be?。International Economic Journal，15(1)，61-93。  new window
16.Kempa, B.、Nelles, M.(1999)。The Theory of Exchange Rate Target Zones。Journal of Economics Surveys，13(2)，173-210。  new window
17.Krugman, Paul R.(1991)。Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics。Quarterly Journal of Economics，106(3)，669-682。  new window
18.Lai, Ching-Chong、Chang, Juin-Jen(2001)。A Note on Inflation Targeting。Journal of Economic Education，32，369-380。  new window
19.Lai, Ching-Chong、Fang, Chung-Rou、Chang, Juin-Jen(2008)。Volatility Trade-offs in Exchange Rate Target Zones。International Review of Economics and Finance，17(3)，366-379。  new window
20.Miller, Marcus、Zhang, Lei(1996)。Optimal target zones: How an exchange rate mechanism can improve upon discretion。Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control，20(9/10)，1641-1660。  new window
21.Rogoff, Kenneth(1985)。The Optimal Degree of Commitment to An Intermediate Monetary Target。Quarterly Journal of Economics，100(4)，1169-1190。  new window
22.Svensson, L. E. O.(1997)。Optimal Inflation Targets, Conservative Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts。American Economic Review，87，98-114。  new window
23.Turnovsky, S. J.(1979)。Optimal Monetary Policy under Flexible Exchange Rates。Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control，1(1)，85-99。  new window
24.Walsh, Carl E.(1995)。Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers。American Economic Review，85(1)，150-167。  new window
25.Bhandari, J. S.(1981)。The Simple Macroeconomics of an Oil-Dependent Economy。European Economic Review，16(2)，333-354。  new window
26.Fang, C. R.(2011)。The Effects of a Dual Exchange Rate System in a Financial Crisis: A Target Zone Perspective。Journal of Economics and Management，7(2)，159-183。  new window
27.Fischer, S.(1977)。Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule。Journal of Political Economy，85(1)，191-206。  new window
28.Turnovsky, S. J.(1981)。The Effect of Devaluation Foreign Price Disturbances under Rational Expectations。Journal of International Economics，11(1)，33-60。  new window
29.Turnovsky, S. J.(1982)。A Determination of the Optimal Currency Basket. A Macroeconomic Analysis。Journal of International Economics，12(3-4)，333-354。  new window
30.Froot, K. A.、Obsteld, M.(1991)。Exchange Rate Dynamics under Stochastic Regime Shifts: A Unfied Approach。Journal of International Economics，31(2)，203-229。  new window
31.Gärtner, M.(2000)。Political Macroeconomics: A Survey of Recent Development。Journal of Economic Surveys，14(5)，527-561。  new window
32.Lai、C. C.、Chang, J. J.、Fang, C. R.(2011)。Is the Honeymoon Effect Valid in the Presence of Both Exchange Rate and Output Expectations? A Graphical Analysis。International Review of Economics and Finance，21(2)，140-146。  new window
33.Lai, C. C.、Chang, W, Y.(1990)。The Relative Performance of Macroeconomic Policies under Alternative Exchange Rates with Wage Indexation and Rational Expectations: The Fleming Proposition Revisited。Scottish Journal of Political Economy，37(1)，85-95。  new window
34.Marion, N. P.(1982)。The Exchange-Rate Effects of Real Disturbances with Rational Expectations and Variable Terms of Trade。Canadian Journal of Economics，15(1)，104-118。  new window
35.McCallum, B. T.(1980)。Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy: An Overview。Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking，12(4)，716-746。  new window
36.Turnovsky, S. J.(1983)。Wage Indexation and Exchange Market Intervention m a Small Open Economy。Canadian Journal of Economics，16(4)，574-592。  new window
研究報告
1.Krugman, P.(1988)。Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics。  new window
學位論文
1.陳秀華(2004)。最適匯率目標區：圖形的解析(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.賴景昌(1983)。匯率調整、理性預期、與國外干擾：兩國模型的探討(博士論文)。國立臺灣大學。new window  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Williamson, J.(1983)。The Exchange Rate System。Washington, DC：Institute for International Economics。  new window
2.賴景昌(1993)。國際金融理論--基礎篇。茂昌書局。  延伸查詢new window
3.賴景昌(1994)。國際金融理論。臺北：茂昌圖書有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
4.賴景昌(2004)。總體經濟學。臺北：雙葉書廊。  延伸查詢new window
5.賴景昌(2007)。國際金融理論--基礎篇。華泰圖書有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
6.Sargent, T. J.(1977)。Macroeconomic Theory。New York。  new window
7.Chiang, A. C.、Wainwright, K.(2005)。Fundamental Methods of Mathematical Economics。New York。  new window
8.Obstfeld, M.、Stockman, A. C.(1985)。Exchange-Rate Dynamics。Handbook of International Economics, Vol. II。Amsterdam。  new window
其他
1.Lai, C. C.，Chang, J. J.，Fang, C. R.(2002)。Are Honeymoon Effects Valid in the Presence of Both Exchange Rate and Price Expectations? A Graphical Analysis。  new window
圖書論文
1.吳中書、陳寶媛(1993)。資本非自由移動下匯率目標區之動態效果。中國經濟學會年會論文集。new window  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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