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題名：國際對臺觀光需求決定因素之分析
書刊名：人文社會科學研究
作者：許登芳 引用關係
作者(外文)：Hsu, Deng-fang
出版日期：2013
卷期：7:2
頁次：頁37-54
主題關鍵詞：觀光出口；國際觀光需求；共積迴歸分析；Tourism export；International tourism demand；Cointegration regression
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:22
  • 點閱點閱:32
本文以共積迴歸法探討1981年至2011年期間國際對台灣觀光需求之決定因素。主要的發現如下：1.國際對台灣觀光需求、國外所得水準、相對物價水準、交通成本與經濟開放程度等變數存在長期穩定的關係。2.對台灣國際觀光長期需求具顯著正面影響的經濟變數中，依影響效果的彈性排序，分別為：國外所得與經濟開放程度；而具顯著負面影響效果的經濟變數中，依影響效果的彈性排序，分別為：相對物價水準與交通成本。3.事件變數中，開放陸客來台政策對觀光需求具顯著的正面效果；而負面的事件變數中，依影響效果的排序，分別為：SARS事件、亞洲金融風暴與921 大地震。上述結果顯示的政策涵義包括：1.政府欲提升國際對台灣觀光的需求，在經濟政策上宜採開放的態度，透過國際貿易的互動，有助於需求的增加。2.政府對於國內的物價要能有效的控制，並避免本國貨幣過度升值，才不會削弱國外觀光客的購買力。3.政府應重視公共衛生，以便發生如SARS的疫情時，才能夠有效控制，以避免擴散。4.開放陸客觀光可增加客源，應是值得持續推動的政策。
The objective of this paper is to investigate the determinants of international inbound tourism demand for Taiwan by FMOLS cointegration regression approach over the period 1981-2011. The results show the following. First, all of economic variables- international tourism demand, foreign income, real effective exchange rate, transportation costs, and economic openness are I(1) time series. Second, there exists a long-run stable relation between international tourism demand, foreign income, real effective exchange rate, transportation costs, and economic openness. Third, both foreign income and economic openness have statistically significant and positive impact on tourism demand. Furthermore, the former is more effective than the latter. Real effective exchange rate and transportation costs have significantly negative effects on tourism demand. In addition, the impact of real effective exchange rate is greater than transportation costs. Fourth, among the event variables, the policy of allowing Mainland China tourists visiting Taiwan has significantly promoted international inbound tourism demand. Fifth, SARS event in 2003, 921 earthquake in 1999, and Asian financial crisis in 1997 have significantly negative impacts on international tourism demand. The policy implications from the results include that, apart from foreign uncontrollable factors and natural disasters, the policymakers should keep the economy open, prevent inflation and avoid domestic currency overvalued. In particular, the implementation of public health policies plays an essential role in promoting the development of tourism export. Finally, our findings also support the Chinese tourists visiting policy empirically.
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研究報告
1.交通部觀光局(2011)。觀光統計年報。台北：交通部觀光局。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.交通部觀光局(2002)。觀光統計年報。台北：交通部觀光局。  延伸查詢new window
2.Lim, C.(2006)。A Survey of Tourism Demand Modeling Practice: Issues and Implications。Handbook on the Economics of Tourism。Cheltenham：Edward Elgar。  new window
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其他
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2.World Tourism Organization.(2012)。International Tourism to Reach one Billion in 2012, PR No. PR12002，http://media.unwto.org/en/press /release.， 2012/01/16。  new window
 
 
 
 
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