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題名：以馬可夫鍊細胞自動機模型模擬極端洪水對都市土地利用型態之影響：以臺北市為例
書刊名：都市與計劃
作者：鄒克萬 引用關係／顧嘉安／郭幸福 引用關係
作者(外文)：Tsou, Ko-wan／Ku, Chia-an／Kuo, Hsing-fu
出版日期：2014
卷期：41:1
頁次：頁43-66
主題關鍵詞：土地利用變遷；極端洪水；細胞自動機；馬可夫鍊；時空動態模擬；Land use change；Extreme flooding；Cellular automata；Markov chain analysis；Spatiotemporal dynamic simulation
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:13
  • 點閱點閱:45
都市洪災之研究為最近幾年重要的議題之一，既有針對都市洪災對土地利用的影響研究，對於淹水潛勢之考量多屬於半靜態之方式，無法確實掌握因氣候變遷而形成之極端洪水在土地利用在時間與空間上之動態變化情形。因此，本文嘗試建構以馬可夫鍊為基礎之細胞自動機空間動態模擬架構，並結合空間多準則評估模型，藉以深入了解在氣候變遷可能造成之極端淹水潛勢情況下，未來都市土地利用之型態變化為何。在台北市之實證研究中，本文建立之細胞自動機動態模擬架構在前期模擬部分具有可信的解釋效力，而在加入極端淹水潛勢之模擬結果顯示，在增高之淹水潛勢下都市發展將會呈現更為蔓延之情形，且原高淹水深度地區將逐漸轉作低人口密度之使用，未來，藉由漸進式的規劃模式，有助於因應淹水潛勢改變所造成土地利用之時空演變，進而確保未來公共設施與交通運輸能夠有效率配合新聚落的發展而達到理想情形。
Most research on urban floods in the last few decades focused on how land use changes alter urban flooding. However, studies that investigate how urban floods affects land use patterns are limited. Therefore, this work applies a novel spatial dynamic modeling approach, based on Markovian cellular automata (CA) and spatial multi-criterion evaluation (MCE), to evaluate the impact of urban floods on land use patterns. Extreme rainfall events caused by climate change are also considered in modeling processes. Taipei City, Taiwan, the study area, has experienced flood events that have caused severe damage in the last decade. A simulated land use scenario under an extreme flood in 2017 indicates that the future land use pattern under extreme flooding will have increased urban sprawl A large number of housing and commercial cells that were located in high-risk areas will gradually disappear and new urban cells will tend to locate outside city centers.
期刊論文
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18.He, C. Y.、Okada, Norio、Zhang, Q. F.、Shi, P.、Li, J. G.(2008)。Modelling dynamic urban expansion processes incorporating a potential model with cellular automata。Landscape and Urban Planning，86(1)，79-91。  new window
19.Hoogstra-Klein, M. A.、Permadi, D. B.、Yasmi, Y.(2012)。The value of cultural theory for participatory processes in natural resource management。Forest Policy and Economics，20，99-106。  new window
20.Irwin, E. G.、Geoghegan, J.(2001)。Theory, data, methods: Developing spatially explicit economic models of land use change, Agriculture。Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment，85(1/3)，7-23。  new window
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43.黃書禮、蔡靜如(20000300)。臺北盆地土地利用變遷趨勢之研究。都市與計劃，27(1)，1-23。new window  延伸查詢new window
44.Apan, A. A.、Raine, S. R.、Paterson, M. S.(2002)。Mapping and analysis of changes in the riparian landscape structure of the Lockyer Valley catchment, Queenland, Australia。Landscape and Urban Planning，59，43-57。  new window
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研究報告
1.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(2007)。Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report。Cambridge：Cambridge University Press。  new window
圖書
1.林國峰、鄭克聲、張倉榮、賴進松、潘宗毅(2009)。淡水河流域及臺北市、臺北縣、 桃園縣與基隆市淹水潛勢圖更新計畫。台北：經濟部水利署水利防災中心。  延伸查詢new window
2.許明熙(2006)。天然災害防護規模設定之研究--子計畫一：淹水災害防護規模設定之研究。台北：國立臺灣大學水工試驗所。  延伸查詢new window
3.UNEP(2012)。GEO5: Global Environmental Outlook。New York：Earthscan。  new window
4.陳亮全(2005)。出席第30屆Boulder防災國際研討會與相關參訪行程報告。臺北：國家防災科技中心。  延伸查詢new window
其他
1.UNISDR(2012)。2011 disasters in numbers，http://www.unisdr.org， 2013/02/01。  new window
圖書論文
1.Li, H.、Reynolds, J. F.(1997)。Modeling effects of spatial pattern, drought, and grazing on rates of rangeland degradation: A combined Markov and cellular automaton approach。Scale in Remote Sensing and GIS。Boca Raton：Lewis Publishers。  new window
2.Xie, Y.、Batty, M.(2005)。Integrated urban evolutionary modeling。Geo Dynamics。Boca Raton：CRC Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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