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題名:臺灣產業指數的外溢效果
書刊名:經濟論文叢刊
作者:郭維裕 引用關係李淯靖陳致綱林建秀 引用關係
作者(外文):Kuo, WeiyuLi, Yu-chingChen, Jhih-gangLin, Chien-hsiu
出版日期:2015
卷期:43:4
頁次:頁407-442
主題關鍵詞:外溢效果連動性外溢指標變幅波動度估計多重結構性變化檢定Spillover effectComovementSpillover indexRange-based volatility estimateMultiple structural breaks test
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:9
本研究應用Diebold and Yilmaz(2012)所提出的外溢指標(spilloverindex)檢視台灣股票集中市場八大產業指數之報酬率與波動度的外溢效果,藉此探討台灣產業間的連動性因果關係。在去除共同因子的影響後,本研究實證結果顯示:台灣產業指數間的外溢效果相當顯著;換言之,台灣各產業間存在著密切的連動性。此外,各產業影響其他產業以及受其他產業影響的程度並不一致。就全樣本下的淨外溢效果而言,營建業為其他產業的主要影響者,而電子業與金融業對其他產業的外溢效果並不如預期地高。實證結果亦發現:在不同子樣本期間內,各產業間的連動性結構亦不盡相同。以美國次級房貸危機引發全球金融風暴的期間為例,金融產業對其他產業的外溢效果最為顯著。最後,本研究利用滾動視窗估計法(rolling windowestimation)描繪外溢指標的動態行為,結果發現外溢指標的確具備隨時間改變的動態特性,且指數波動度對於衝擊發生時的反應程度較指數報酬率更為劇烈。
In view of the important role played by industrial factors in explaining the cross-sectional stock returns, we apply the spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) to investigate the return and volatility spillover effects among industrial indices in the Taiwan stock market. Our empirical results indicate that there exist significant spillover effects among industrial indices; that is, the comovement of industries in Taiwan is evident. We also find that while most industries are receivers of spillover effects, a few industries are the main exporters of return and volatility spillover effects. In particular, the construction industry in Taiwan is the key transmitter of spillover effects. In contrast, the electronic industry and financial industry do not have as significant net spillover effects as we expected. Moreover, based on the robustness analysis, we find that key exporters of spillover effects are actually quite different within sub-samples. For instance, the financial industry has the most significant net spillover effects on other industries during the period of the subprime debt crisis in 2008. Finally, we utilize the method of rolling window estimation to illustrate the dynamics of industrial spillover effects. In fact, the results reveal apparently dynamic behavior of industrial spillover effects in the Taiwan stock market.
期刊論文
1.Hou, Kewei(2007)。Industry Information Diffusion and the Lead-lag Effect in Stock Returns。Review of Financial Studies,20(4),1113-1138。  new window
2.徐清俊、莊益源、陳韋豪(20050500)。臺灣半導體產業上、中、下游股價關連性與波動性外溢效果研究--雙變量EGARCH模型的應用。亞東學報,25,123-133。  延伸查詢new window
3.劉祥熹、劉浩宇(20121200)。臺灣TFT-LCD產業上中下游股價之長期記憶、關聯性與波動外溢效果之研究:FIEC-HYGARCH模型之應用。應用經濟論叢,92,119-162。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.Cen, Ling、Chan, Kalok、Dasgupta, Sudipto、Gao, Ning(2013)。When the Tail Wags the Dog: Industry Leaders, Limited Attention and Spurious Cross-Industry Information Diffusion。Management Science,59,2566-2585。  new window
5.Eleswarapu, Venkat R.、Tiwari, Ashish(1996)。Business Cycles and Stock Market Returns: Evidence Using Industry-based Portfolios。The Journal of Financial Research,19,121-134。  new window
6.Heston, Steven L.、Rouwenhorst, K. Geert(1995)。Industry and Country Effects in International Stock Returns。Journal of Portfolio Management,21(3),53-58。  new window
7.Lessard, Donald R.(1974)。Industry Factors in Equity Returns。Journal of Finance,29,379-391。  new window
8.Meric, Ilhan、Ratner, Mitchell、Meric, Gulser(2008)。Co-movements of Sector Index Returns in the World's Major Stock Markets in Bull and Bear Markets: Portfolio Diversification Implications。International Review of Financial Analysis,17(1),156-177。  new window
9.Phylaktis, Kate、Xia, Lichuan(2006)。The Changing Roles of Industry and Country Effects in the Global Equity Markets。European Journal of Finance,12,627-648。  new window
10.Hong, Harrison、Torous, Walter、Valkanov, Rossen(2007)。Do Industries Lead Stock Markets?。Journal of Financial Economics,83(2),367-396。  new window
11.Pesaran, M. H.、Shin, Y.(1998)。Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models。Economics Letters,58(1),17-29。  new window
12.Cavaglia, S.、Brightman, C.、Aked, M.(2000)。The Increasing Importance of Industry Factors。Financial Analysts Journal,56(5),41-54。  new window
13.Bai, Jushan、Perron, Pierre(1998)。Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes。Econometrica,66(1),47-78。  new window
14.Bai, Jushan、Perron, Pierre(2003)。Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models。Journal of Applied Econometrics,18(1),1-22。  new window
15.Grinold, Richard、Rudd, Andrew、Stefek, Dan(1989)。Global factors: Fact or fiction?。Journal of Portfolio Management,16(1),79-88。  new window
16.Diebold, Francis X.、Yilmaz, Kamil(2009)。Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets。Economic Journal,119(534),158-171。  new window
17.Diebold, Francis X.、Yilmaz, Kamil(2012)。Better to Give than to Receive: Predictive Directional Measurement of Volatility Spillovers。International Journal of Forecasting,28(1),57-66。  new window
18.Parkinson, Michael(1980)。The extreme value method for estimating the variance of the rate of return。Journal of Business,53(1),61-65。  new window
研究報告
1.Yilmaz, Kamil(2009)。International Business Cycle Spillovers。TUSIAD-Koc University Economic Research Forum。  new window
圖書
1.Tvede, Lars(2006)。Business Cycles: History, Theory and Investment Reality。Hoboken, NJ:John Wiley and Sons。  new window
 
 
 
 
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