本文係利用GOrt和Konakayama（1982）與Gottinger（1987）所提之離散選擇型態的擴散模型（discrete choice type diffusion model）探討我國廠商參進（或退出）光電產品市場的決定因素，並依Gort和Klepper（1982）將不同發展階段之創新產品予以分類後再分別估計之。由實證結果我們發現：1.示範效果是影響參進機率的主要變數。2.價格和產出的預期誤差效果對廠商退出市場的行為決策的解釋能力比動態調整成本、學習效果和專利權的解釋能力強。3.選用三期平均的預期誤差率衡量廠商產出與價格的長期誤差效果優於選用二期平均的預期誤差率。4.以市場發展階段分類之實證結果較不分類之實證結果穩定且顯著。

　　　　　The purpose of this paper is to investigate the diffusion of optoelectronic product in Taiwan by applying the discrete choice type diffusion models proposed by Gort and Konakayama (1982) and Gottinger (1987). Empirical results indicate that demonstration effect is the major determinant influencing the probability of entry. It is also found that Gottinger's expectation error model can be used to better explain the probability of exit. Wethen identify the different development stages of the optoelectronic products according to Gort and Klepper (1982) , and reestimate the empiricalmodel of Gottinger (1987) - It is shown that different development stages should be estimated separately for more stable and significant results.