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題名:經濟增長與二氧化碳減排的雙贏路徑分析
書刊名:中國人口.資源與環境
作者:何建坤盧蘭蘭王海林
出版日期:2018
卷期:2018(10)
頁次:9-17
主題關鍵詞:氣候變化能源變革低碳發展GDP的二氧化碳強度Climate changeEnergy revolutionLow-carbon developmentCO₂ intensity of GDP
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實現《巴黎協定》下全球減排溫室氣體目標,要與聯合國2030年可持續發展目標(SDGs)相結合,促使各國走上"發展"和"減碳"雙贏的綠色低碳發展路徑。其核心指標是大幅度降低單位GDP的二氧化碳強度,也就是大幅度提升單位二氧化碳排放的經濟產出效益。一方面要大力節能,提高能源轉換和利用效率,同時轉變生產方式和消費方式,減少終端能源需求,從而降低單位GDP的能源強度;另一方面是大力發展新能源和可再生能源,促進能源結構的低碳化,降低單位能耗的二氧化碳強度。實現控制溫升不超過2℃目標,全球單位GDP的二氧化碳強度年下降率2030年前需盡快達到4%以上,但按目前趨勢只有2%左右,各國都必須加大能源變革的經濟轉型力度。中國實現在《巴黎協定》下提出的2030年單位GDP的二氧化碳強度比2005年下降60%~65%的國家自主貢獻目標,年下降率要持續維持4%以上。并將不斷加大力度,在保障經濟社會持續發展同時,促使二氧化碳排放早日達峰,從而為促進全球實現可持續發展與應對氣候變化協調共贏的低碳發展路徑發揮積極的引領作用。
Achieving the objective of global greenhouse gas emission reduction under the Paris Agreement should be combined with the UN 2030 sustainable development goals so as to drive all countries to embark on a green low-carbon development pathway of a win-win‘development’and ‘carbon reduction’. And the key indicator is to substantially decrease the CO2 intensity of GDP,that is,to substantially enhance the economic output benefit of per unit CO2 emission. The measures are twofold. One is to save energy,improve energy conversion and utilization efficiency,and meanwhile change the patterns of production and consumption and reduce final energy demand so as to decrease the energy intensity of GDP. The other is to develop new and renewable energy,promote energy structure decarbonization,and decrease the CO2 intensity of energy consumption. To control global temperature rise below 2℃,the annual decrease rate of global CO2 intensity of GDP need reach above 4% as soon as possible before 2030. But it could only be 2% according to the current trend. Therefore,all countries ought to enhance their ambition in economic transition and energy reform. Moreover,to decrease the CO2 intensity of GDP by 60% 65% in 2030 compared with the 2005 level as is proposed in the Paris Agreement,China needs to maintain its annual decrease rate above 4%. In addition,China will make continuous efforts to make CO2 emission peak earlier and in the meantime ensure sustainable economic and social development,thus playing a positive leading role in achieving a global low-carbon development pathway for a win-win situation for sustainable development and response to climate change.
 
 
 
 
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