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題名:一個模糊多評準決策方法之構建及其應用
作者:陳耀竹
作者(外文):Yaw-Chu Chen
校院名稱:國立交通大學
系所名稱:管理科學研究所
指導教授:張保隆
學位類別:博士
出版日期:1994
主題關鍵詞:多評準決策樂觀指數模糊數排序技術移轉管理Multi-Criteria Decision MakingIndex of OptimismRanking Fuzzy
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(28) 博士論文(2) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:13
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:46
本文旨在模糊環境下,如何構建一套模糊多評準決策方法。文中提供一套
模糊多評準決策方法的演算法則;該演算法則是依據模糊集合理論與層級
結構分析為基礎所構建而成。模式採兩層級結構分析,第一層用以評估決
策準則之相對權重,第二層為各替代方案在各決策準則下之適合度評價。
並以三角形模糊數與語言變數為兩個主要的觀念,作為準則之「重要性」
與方案滿足各準則之「適合度」評估之用。決策者可利用已設定好的語言
值集或自己主觀認知之模糊數,分別就準則的相對權重,與方案適合準則
之程度進行評分,經適當加總後,得到各方案之綜合評價,稱為模糊適合
指數。文中亦提出一套新的模糊數排序方法,此法最先由Kim與Park教授
,在一九九○年提出,Kim與Park認為評價者之風險態度值,即樂、悲觀
指數,是由單一決策者在資料輸出階段,依決策者當時的主觀認知,另外
決定該風險承擔值。本文提出另一看法,重新定義決策者風險態度之樂、
悲觀指數,藉由本文之定義,不但可從資料中了解個別決策者之風險承擔
態度值,且可直接由資料本身,直接導出群體決策者之風險承擔態度值;
即群體之樂、悲觀指數,可由原始資料直接決定該值。然後,利用此修正
的方法於模糊適合指數的排序,以供決策之參考。本文亦將所提的模糊多
評準決策之演算法則作進一步的討論與引申。並以生物科技產業為例,說
明如何應用本文所構建之演算法則,評選最適之技術移轉策略。並檢討此
方法在應用上有何優、缺點。
This paper proposes a fuzzy multi-criteria decision making
mothod for strategy selection in the area of management under
fuzzy environment. An algorithm for strategy selection is
proposed. The algorithm is based on the concepts of fuzzy set
theory and hierarchical structure analysis. The concepts of
hierarchical structure analysis with two distinct levels are
used in this paper. The first level is to evaluate fuzzy
importance of the decision criteria and the second level is to
assign ratings to various strategies under each evaluation
criterion. The triangular fuzzy number and the linguistic
variable are the two main concepts used in this paper to assess
the preference ratings of linguistic variables, ''''importance''''
and ''''appropriateness''''. The decision makers can either employ
an assumed rating set or give his own rating by using the
triangular fuzzy number to show the individual perception of
the linguistic variables. The reason of using triangular
fuzzy number is that it is intuitively easy to be used by the
decision makers. We also propose a revised method for ranking
fuzzy numbers with index of optimism which was proposed by Kim
and Park. Our revised method is based on the stage of data
input for computing the total index of optimism in multi-person
decision making problem, instead of giving the index of
optimism independently by a decision maker on the stage of
information output. This new look at the index of optimism
reflects the pooled risk- bearing attitude of multi-judge.
The index of optimism is determined by the evaluation data
conveyed by the decision makers at the beginning of the data
input stage, i.e. the risk- bearing attitudes of decision
makers are reflected in the data input stage. Finally, we use
the revised method to rank the final scores of alternatives for
choosing the best technology transfer strategy in the area of
biotechnology management.
 
 
 
 
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