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題名：遺址博物館價值之經濟評估：以台灣十三行博物館為例
作者：林明美
作者(外文)：Lun Ming-Mei
校院名稱：中國文化大學
系所名稱：建築及都市計畫研究所
指導教授：林元興
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2008
主題關鍵詞：文化經濟學+分區旅行成本法+；價值+文化財+；遺址博物館+十三行博物館；cultural economics+ zonal travel cost method（ZTCM）+；value+ cultural goods+；site museum+ Shihsanhang Museum of Archaeology
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摘要
博物館不僅是各國重要文物保管場所，且兼為各國文化與教育的象徵，是「文化財」（cultural goods）、也是「公共財」（public goods），同時更是「優質財」（merit goods），成為近年來各國或各城市競相爭艷，藉以增進城市魅力的重要文化資本，如西班牙古根漢畢爾包分館為城市帶來巨大的觀光客及商機即是著名案例。但是，許多博物館或因為參觀人數不足，或因為收入與支出之間不均衡，提不出具體營運成效，以致造成補助或贊助單位的疑慮，導致經費來源不足等現象。
本文以遺址博物館為研究對象，係因台灣本島面積雖然僅有3萬6千平方公里，但歷經史前、荷據、日治及清領時期，遺址豐富，卻因無法評價遺址的價值，因此經常發生遺址保存與開發間的爭議。惟有關文化商品價值方面的研究，目前尚缺乏一套公認且有系統的評估辦法，本文經過文獻回顧分析後，採借經濟學非市場的評價方法分區旅行成本法（zonal travel cost model，簡稱ZTCM）探討博物館的經濟價值。
本文的樣本對象為位在台北縣八里鄉的十三行博物館，該館係因搶救國家二級古蹟十三行遺址而成立，館址就位在遺址側700公尺處，自2003年開館，迄2006年止，總參訪人數為220萬人次，每年平均觀眾約為55萬人次。
本文的研究流程由研究背景、問題分析、研究動機開始，並擬定研究假設與目的，其後進行研究方法選擇與研究範圍的確定，由此共同構成一章「緒論」；第二章為「文獻回顧」，探討文化財非市場價值評估理論、文獻及其研究方法之比較分析，以為本文的參考與理論基礎；第三章為本研究「理論架構」的建立，包括文化財效用函數的建立、文化財需求函數的導出，並藉分區旅行成本法建構本文研究範圍十三行博物館之需求函數，及以複迴歸分析進行實證分析之理論架構；第四章係依據第三章之理論架構，收集相關的數據資料、進行資料的敘述，並借推理統計方法進行「實證分析」，以驗證第三章的理論及本文的假設是否成立？第五章則根據上述研究成果，提出研究發現，檢視研究目的及研究假設，分別提出有關學術方面與行政方面的「結論與建議」，以提供學術與行政之參考。
本文除進行博物館的價值評估方向、方法外，並對博物館無形的貢獻進行評價，採系統抽樣法，調查時間為2005年12月及2006年3月，調查十三行博物館之參訪者計439名，有效問卷342份，問卷成功率78%。經過實証分析，參訪者需求函數解釋力最強的模式為 模式，且具有沒有自我相關、自變數通過檢定、函數係數容易解釋及運算等優點。
本文以較簡單的回收期作為準則計算，以每位參訪者的平均旅行成本為717元，十三行博物館每年參訪人數平均為55萬人，兩者相乘，代表因博物館所創造的國民生產毛額（gross national product ,簡稱GNP）即達3.9億餘元，此尚不包括途中的其他花費，例如膳宿費等，而十三行博物館的建設成本也不過3.8億元而已，故回收期只要1年，表示該館十分值得國家栽培與維護。
如以淨現值計算博物館的長期利益，自2003年開館至今五年，其創造的價值應超過19.5億元，已遠遠超過十三行博物館及八里左岸的建設經費7.3億元，足以證明十三行博物館的規劃開發是符合效益的。
另外，經過實證求得台灣地區因設立十三行博物館的消費者剩餘為71億元（其中業已扣除14%非專程來訪者的消費者剩餘），該項效益為十三行博物館興建成本3.8億元的19倍，按益本比（B/C ratio）大於1即可進行投資的準則，十三行博物館不僅值得政府興建，且其效益遠遠大於原先所估算的效益，對於社會、教育、文化以及經濟方面均具有顯著的價值。
從實證結果檢視本文之假設與目的，五項假設中有四項得到證實，可提供相關學術相關研究時之參考。亦即：參訪人數需求量與旅行成本高低成反比、參訪人數需求量與所得高低成正比、參訪人數需求量與分區之社會經濟因素成正比、文化財價格需求彈性高。至於未得到證實之假設則可能因為國內的情形與國外略有不同，所得雖然提昇，但文化財所得需求彈性卻未隨之增加，顯示與民眾對經濟財的看法有所不同，此部分尚有很大的研究空間。
檢視本文是否達成研究目的，從實證分析的結果來看，分區旅行成本法確實可運用在探討遺址博物館的非市場價值，並可做為遺址博物館非市場價值的評估模型，惟本研究方法僅探討使用者價值，至於非使用價值部分則應另行以其他研究方法進行探討，因此博物館之總價值應大於實際估算的經濟價值。至於十三行博物館是否符合成本效益，是否值得支持鼓勵部份，從實證分析有關的數據中即已得到肯定的解答。
本文之結論為利用分區旅行成本法探討遺址博物館的經濟價值，為國內首見案例，證實可用此法評估博物館等文化財之經濟價值，並可應用至其他文化財價值估算；本文成為國際間相關研究中的一項研究案例，可提供此學門總體研究參考；並可推展國內有關此方面學門之研究，逐步累積研究資源與素材等。
同時，本文證實十三行博物館不僅值得政府興建，且其效益遠大於原先的估算，對於社會、教育、文化以及經濟方面均具有顯著的價值，本實證結果並可提供給政府部門作為評估博物館或其他文化財策略之參考，或提供博物館營運者具體可觀的數據，以作為館方爭取補助及永續經營之助力。同時建議有關此領域之研究應持續增加，以累積學術研究資源，並建議博物館應不斷的開發其吸引力與內涵，以提昇其價值。
有關後續研究部分，未來可再加入條件評估法及特徵價格法進行不同的實證推估，加以比較歸納其差異與價值，並對於博物館長期的價值加以推估總計，或可掌握較為接近事實的博物館經濟價值，進一步作為訂定博物館之補助標準或門票支付的相關政策參考。同時亦可就國內外不同類型、不同地區、不同規模的博物館或文化資產，進行相關模式的實證分析與比較研究，並進一步歸納比較博物館間的益本分析差異，提供作為政府及私人推動博物館政策及相關規劃建設方案的參考。
Abstract
A museum is not only a depository for national treasures, but it is a symbol of a nation’s culture and education. It is a cultural goods, public goods, and also merit goods and significant cultural capital that aid major countries or cities to attract tourism. From the perspective of economics, a museum is not merely an important house of cultural heritage, but also an important cultural goods. Gradually, the public is accepting methods of economics to evaluate a cultural goods or the performance of a museum. For instance, the Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao had several successful cases that brought in huge tourist and business opportunities for Bilbao. However, there are some small or medium sized museums due to their insufficient attendance or deficiency between revenue and expenses, they cannot attract sufficient sponsorship and unable to rise enough funding for operation. Nevertheless, they still lacks on systematic and recognizable evaluation model.
Although the total area of Taiwan is only 36,000 sq. km, there are plenty of historical sites spanning from prehistoric eras to Dutch occupation, Japanese invasion and through the Ch’ing reign. However, due to difficulties evaluating the historical sites and insufficient attendance after the founding of the site museum, issues of whether to preserve or develop historical sites remain disputable. Therefore, the issue of appraising method for the economic value of museum remains. This thesis utilizes the zonal travel cost model (ZTCM) upon extensive literature review, aiming to find out the economic values of museums.
The case study of the research focuses on Shihsanhang Museum of Archaeology in Bali, Taipei County, it established as an institution holding second-tier national treasure. The museum is located 700 meters away from the site and opens to the public since 2003. It has attracted approximately 550,000 visitors a year. Until 2006, it has attracted a total attendance of over 2.2 million visitors.
The research starts with the introduction and objectives, and then follows with investigation methods and definition. Chapter 1 serves as an introduction, chapter 2 is a literature review that explores various museum assessment theories, chapter 3 is an overview on the founding of the theoretic structure, including the economic value of cultural goods, It includes the establishment of a function on cultural goods and exports the demand function on cultural goods. Moreover, the research part on Shihsanhang Museum of Archaeology can apply the ZTCM to establish a demand of a function. However, multiple analyses are required to proceed empirical analysis on the theoretical structure.
Chapter 4 is a test theory for methods detailed in chapter 3. Based on the above research results, the final chapter will provide adequate conclusions and recommendations for future scholastic and government reference.
In addition to studying the evaluation methods for museums, the thesis intends to appraise their intangible contributions. A systematic sampling of the Shihsanhang Museum of Archaeology visitor was conducted between December 2005 and March 2006; 439 visitors have been surveyed, and 342 effective questionnaires have been collected. The survey success rate is 78%. After test and analysis, it is found that the Model appears the most explanatory, and possesses the merits of non-self-related, variable certification, and function factors can be directly use on explanation and operation.
Based on the ZTCM, to multiplying with the number of visitors, we can get the amount of total visitors are willing to pay for a museum visit (excluding tickets and other relevant revenues). In the case of the Shihsanhang Museum of Archaeology, a preliminary calculation shows that the average travel cost per visitor is NTD 717, and the average annual attendance is 550,000 visitors. By multiplying these two figures we can get an amount of over NTD 390 million, which represents the Gross National Product (GNP) that the museum has created. Considering the museum’s construction cost of NTD 380 million, it takes only 1 year to break even with the initial investment. It reveals the worthy value for the government to cultivate the museum.
If using the net value to calculate the museum’s long-tern value, it shows that the museum has created a value of over NTD 1,950 million, which far exceeds the construction cost of the Shihsanhang Museum of Archaeology and Bali left bank, about NTD 730 million in all. The consumer surplus is NTD 7.1 billion (Subtracting 14% surplus from non-visit consumers), therefore is 19 times over the original construction cost of NTD 380 million; exceeding the B/C ratio over 1. It is proved that the museum has created a significant value that is worthy of the national preservation. It also shows that the facilities of a museum is not only beneficial to the society and culture, but contributes a lot to the economics of a nation.
From the five hypothesis have stated in the thesis, 4 of 5 has been confirmed and can be apply as academic references. The four confirmations from the five hypotheses are as follows: the numbers of visitors demand and the travel cost is reciprocal proportion, the numbers of visitors demand and income is direct proportion, the numbers of visitors demand and social economic reason of division is direct proportion, and the price on cultural goods demand is more flexible. Nevertheless, the last hypothesis cannot be confirmed maybe due to the differences between different countries.
To exam whether the research has attained its goal, observe on the empirical analysis reveals ZTCM is useful on non-market value of site museums. Such an analysis only base on user’s value of standard model, non-user field is required to research in a vary way. As a result, the value of calculation is usually smaller than the social total value. Gladly, from the empirical analysis shows that Shihsanhang Museum of Archaeology is suit for cost efficiency.
However, the research is confined to short-term specific visitors and the study can not fully reflect the total social value of a museum. To continue the following research, contingent valuation method and hedonic price method may be included to undertake more estimation. With the comparison of different evaluation methods, the long-term value of a museum, or the more authentic value of a museum, in a word, may be acquired and be used as a valid reference for the museum ticketing policy. Furthermore, through comparing the value of different sized or typed museums, these methods will be of great help to better evaluate the investment of a museum and serve as a valid reference for the museum planning. Meanwhile, a museum can understand its visitors through analysis of various demand curves and the travel cost within different areas. Therefore, it can design different exhibition strategies and outreach plans to cater to different visitors needs.
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三、網站資料
1.http://icom.museum/gen_conferences.html
2.http://www.cam.org.tw/5-newsletter/29.htm#ch1
3.Smithsonian Institution Archives：http://siarchives.si.edu/findingaids/FA04-063.htm
4.http://www.cam.org.tw/big5/publish.htm
5.http://www.cam.org.tw/big5/about2.htm
6.http://etds.ncl.edu.tw/theabs/index.jsp（參考時間：97年4月2日）
 
 
 
 
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