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題名:人口老化、資本形成與經濟成長
作者:羅慧君
作者(外文):Huei-ChunLo
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:政治經濟研究所
指導教授:許永河
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2014
主題關鍵詞:人口老化人力資本儲蓄經濟成長Population agingHuman CapitalSavingEconomic growth
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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本文探討人口老化對日本經濟成長之影響;人口老化除導致勞動年齡人口減少,亦影響家計單位之儲蓄,進而影響整體經濟體系之資本形成。本文先探討人口老化對勞動人口數、勞動生產力之影響,兼論其對人力資本累積之效果。其次,鑑於不同年齡族群之儲蓄能力不同,故以生命週期假說下代表性個體一生年齡別之儲蓄率為基礎,探討老化社會之人口年齡結構改變對整體儲蓄、資本累積及經濟成長之影響。最後,整合人口老化、人力資源、人力資本,儲蓄及實質資本累積等因素,修改Solow (1965) 之經濟成長模型,探討人口老化對日本之資本形成及經濟成長之影響。本文實證結果發現年齡介於二十五歲至四十九歲的主力勞動人口群對人力資本累積扮演舉足輕重的角色,且日本之儲蓄率隨著人口老化而下降,造成經濟成長減緩。
本文採用日本國立社會保障人口問題研究所之人口中推計資料,估算人口老化對日本未來經濟的影響。本文之模擬研究顯示未來日本經濟成長將因人口老化持續呈現逐年下滑趨勢。為提高經濟成長率並挽救成長率下滑的趨勢,應該鼓勵儲蓄以提升資本存量及勞動生產力,並應鼓勵研究發展以持續提升要素生產力,以及引進國外壯盛之年的勞動人口。
This dissertation aims to explore the impacts of population aging on Japan’s economic performance. A demographic–economic growth model is applied to study the relationship among labor force age structure, human capital, saving and physical capital formation, and economic growth. The impacts of population aging on economic growth are decomposed into two separate effects: The effects on labor productivity and human capital formation, and the effects on saving and physical capital accumulation.
A new dimension of human capital accumulation to GDP growth is introduced by including the demographic factor in the context of human capital estimation and a significant role of prime labor cohort those aged 25 to 49 in the accumulation of human capital is found. Based on life-cycle hypothesis (LCH), saving rate varies with age and the profile of age structure as population aging evolves. Japanese empirical data indicates that Japanese saving rate declines with its aged population and the declining saving resulting from population aging leads to slow economic growth in Japan.
The empirical results in this study show the population aging would lead to decline in Japanese GDP growth for the next half century to come. Population aging also causes a decline in the rate of change in aggregate saving in Japan. Policy measures that prompt continuous increase in total factor productivity, encourage saving to increase capital formation should be considered to mitigate the declining growth rate trend.
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