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題名:考量外部因素動態競合模式之應用與收斂性分析-以臺灣南方離島旅客量為例
作者:林靜芬
作者(外文):LIN, CHING-FEN
校院名稱:中華大學
系所名稱:科技管理博士學位學程
指導教授:羅仕京
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2017
主題關鍵詞:島嶼觀光動態競合灰色Lotka-Volterra模式社會經濟因素系統穩定度分析offshore islands tourismdynamic competitivegrey Lotka-Volterra modelsocial-economic variablessystem stability analysis
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離島觀光研究多著重在探討島嶼的觀光資源、遊客意向或生態永續發展,對於觀光離島之間的競爭與合作關係分析較無進一步的探討。本研究旨在探究臺灣三個南方離島(綠島、蘭嶼、小琉球)觀光發展的競爭或合作關係,期望發展出一動態旅客量預測模式。研究中以灰色Lotka-Volterra 模式為基礎構建模式,於預測過程中,考慮有無外部因素進行預測,於眾多外部的社會經濟因素,篩選出可能對觀光人數有影響的社會經濟因素進入模式中分析。本研究所選的社會經濟因素共四個,包含GDP、原油價格、人口數以及失業率等因素,連同未包含外部社會經濟因素,共五種情況進行預測分析。結果顯示:小琉球、綠島與蘭嶼三個島嶼的評價與口碑皆是良好,可吸引觀光客前往與再訪意願。然對於島嶼內部因素,小琉球與蘭嶼由於政府目前致力於投入觀光資源,目前島內的各項建設皆有提升,然綠島的部分較內部資源運用較飽和,可能無法滿足外來遊客的容量。競合關係方面,綠島會搶食小琉球、蘭嶼的觀光客源。社經因素則以考慮失業率的情況下,會影響系統模式,而失業率是旅客量成長的消極項,亦即當失業率增加時,會導致旅客想要觀光的意願降低,導致旅客量下降,模式結果顯示蘭嶼會受到外部因素失業率的影響。本研究為了進一步的探討預測的結果有無外部因素對系統模式的影響,故透過數值分析進行三種狀態之探討,包含穩定狀態、不穩定狀態以及週期性,進行系統收斂情況分析,可供後續的研究於未來進行外部因素分析時之參考。
Research on offshore islands tourism primarily focuses on exploring the islands' tourism resources, tourist intentions or ecologically sustainable development without further discussion on the competition-cooperation relationship between the offshore islands. This study aims to explore the competitive or cooperative relationship between Taiwan’s three southern offshore islands (Green Island, Orchid Island and Little Liuqiu) in terms of tourism development, in the hope of developing a dynamic forecasting model for tourist volume. In this study, a grey Lotka-Volterra model is used as the basic model. Also, whether external factors are present or not is taken into account in the process of forecasting. Among various external socio-economic factors, the factors that may have an impact on the number of tourists are selected to be analyzed in the model. Four socio-economic factors are selected in this study, including GDP, oil price, population and unemployment rate. In addition to the four cases with these four socio-economic factors respectively, a case without external socio-economic factors is also included in this paper for forecasting analysis. According to the result, Little Liuqiu, Green Island and Orchid Island are widely acclaimed, which can attract tourists to visit and revisit these places. In terms of internal factors, the government is currently committed to investing tourism resources into Little Liuqiu and Orchid Island and thus the infrastructures on these two islands are improved. On the other hand, Green Island’s resource utilization is more saturated and thus Green Island may not have enough infrastructures to accommodate a large number of foreign tourists. As to the competition-cooperation relationship between these three islands, Green Island will snatch tourists from Little Liuqiu and Orchid Island. When the unemployment rate is taken into consideration, the systematic model will be affected by socio-economic factors. Also, the unemployment rate has a negative impact on the growth of tourist volume. That is, when the unemployment rate increases, tourists will be less willing to visit tourist spots, which then leads to a decrease in tourist volume. The result of the model shows that Orchid Island will be affected by the unemployment rate. To further explore the impact of external factors on the systematic model, this study employs numerical analysis to discuss stable, unstable and periodic states, so as to observe the systematic convergence of the model with or without the consideration of external factors. This can serve as a reference for future research on the analysis of external factors.
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