摘要 兩岸在經過多次協商下，於2008 年12 月終於開放海運直航，過去許多研究 皆指出直航可降低運輸成本，帶來無窮商機，因此本研究預測兩岸直航貨櫃運量 與港埠貨櫃量分配，為期能了解兩岸港埠貨櫃運量變化趨勢。本文透過灰色理論 預測兩岸貨櫃運量，資料來源包括境外航運中心貨櫃運量、兩岸三地彎靠航線貨 櫃運量、兩岸經香港中轉貨櫃運量；經由資料蒐集與分析，接著建立模型進行目 標年貨櫃運量預測，並再進行誤差值檢驗。另外，根據GM(1,1)預測兩岸貨櫃總 量資料，透過重力模式來構建兩岸港口間之貨櫃運量，求得2012 年兩岸直航港 對港貨櫃運量估計。根據研究結果顯示，直航前由於只開放廈門、福州為境外航 運中心，所以運量集中分佈於上海、深圳、廈門、福州；直航後無須繞道而行， 運輸行為改變，運量集中分佈於上海、深圳、青島、廣州。因此兩岸直航後，廈 門港及福州港的地理位置將不再那麼重要，貨櫃運量將會呈現緩慢成長。

ABSTRACT After several times of negotiations, the government of Taiwan and China declared cross-strait direct shipping in December of 2008. Many studies have pointed out that direct shipping reduce transportation costs and bring business opportunities. Therefore we exploit grey theory to forecast container throughput between Taiwan and China then by gravity model to distribution. The data source included container throughput of Offshore Transshipment Center, transferred through a third port and transferred through Hong Kong. First, we will use GM(1,1) to forecast container throughput. Next, we use gravity model to distribute the shipping movement among Taiwan's and China's seaports in 2012. The results indicated that the container throughput concentrate in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Xiamen and Fuzhou currently. After direct shipping, it will concentrate in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Qingdao and Guangzhou. The behavior of transportation will be changed and the geographical position of Xiamen' and Fuzhou' ports will not be so important anymore, and the container throughput will be grown slowly.