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題名:颱風損害之綜合評估:模糊多準則評估法之應用
書刊名:臺灣土地研究
作者:洪鴻智 引用關係
作者(外文):Hung, Hung-chih
出版日期:2002
卷期:4
頁次:頁1-27
主題關鍵詞:災害颱風不確定性模糊集合環境風險多準則評估HazardsTyphoonUncertaintyFuzzy setsEnvironmental riskMulticriteria evaluation
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:8
  • 點閱點閱:152
傳統颱風損害之評估存在兩個主要之課題,第一個課題為傳統對颱風之損害評估多偏向單損害項目與單地區之評估,缺乏跨區域、多項目及能處理不同資料型態的多準則綜合評估方式。另一個課題為颱風損害評估與資料蒐集過程常發生的資訊不充足、不確定與主觀判定之困境。本文之目的在引入模糊理論,建立多準則颱風損害綜合評估模型,以改善傳統颱風損害評估模式的不足。文中以近年台灣六個主要颱風損害為案例,以建立的模式,估計各颱風之綜合損害及各颱風在各縣市的綜合損害,估計結果發現資料所隱含之模糊度愈高,所估計之颱風災害損害程度愈低;相對地,隱含之模糊度愈低則估計之損害程度愈高。代表災害損害估計過程如忽略資料的粗略性,將嚴重扭曲損害估計之成果,可能高估高損害程度之颱風損害,而低估低損害程度颱風之損害。
Conventional evaluation methods on typhoon damage are mainly focused upon mono-item or mono-area, rather than deal with comprehensive damage estimating for multi-items, multi-typhoon or multi-areas. Furthermore, it is usually suffered from the information insufficiency, uncertainty, and subjective judgment while proceeds with the data surveying and damage estimating on typhoon. To the purpose of mitigating these two problems, the main purpose of this paper is to establish a multicriteria comprehensive model using fuzzy set theory, and employ this model as an instrument to evaluate six recently major typhoon damages in Taiwan as a case study. The items in the case study that include two aspects: (1) the comprehensive damage degree evaluating of each typhoon, and (2) the damage geographical distribution estimating in each prefecture/city for each typhoon. It is found that the damage estimation shows where as the potential fuzziness within surveying data increases, as the less of an estimating damages degree, and vice versa. These results represent that if estimator ignores the potential roughness within surveying data in damage estimating process, then the evaluation of damage will be distorted. Therefore, it will be more overestimated the damages, while greater the typhoon damage exposes. In the other hand, will it more underestimate the damage, while which the less the typhoon damages.
期刊論文
1.馮正民、呂秀玉(19970300)。模糊方法在質化評估準則之運用--交通建設土地徵收難易度為例。都市與計劃,24(1),1-21。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Teng, J. Y.、Tzeng, G. H.(1996)。Fuzzy multicriteria ranking of urban transportation investment alternative。Transportation Planning and Technology,20(1),15-31。  new window
3.Zadeh, L. A.(1975)。The concept of a linguistic variable and its application to approximate reasoning。Information Science,8,43-357。  new window
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6.Zadeh, Lotfi Asker(1965)。Fuzzy sets。Information and Control,8(3),338-353。  new window
7.Boswell, M. R.、Deyle, R. E.、Smith, R. A.、Baker, E. J.(1999)。A Quantitative Method for Estimating Probable Public Costs of Hurricanes。Environmental Management,23(3),359-372。  new window
8.洪鴻智(1996)。工業區環境風險管理:REACT模型之應用。國立臺北大學學報,32,301-328。  延伸查詢new window
9.Smith, R. A.、Deyle, R. E.(2000)。Risk-Based Taxation of Hazardous Land Development。Journal of the American Planning Association,66(4),421-434。  new window
10.Sarin, R.(2000)。Decision rules with bounded memory。Journal of Economic Theory,90(1),151-160。  new window
11.Bendimerad, F.(2001)。Loss Estimation: A Powerful Tool for Risk Assessment and Mitigation。Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,21,467-472。  new window
12.Greenwood, D. J.、Hatheway, D. J.(1996)。Assessing Opal's Impact。Civil Engineering,66(1),40-43。  new window
13.Song, Bo、Hao, S.、Murakami, S.、Sadohara, S.(1996)。Comprehensive Evaluation Method on Earthquake Damage Using Fuzzy Theory。Journal of Urban Planning and Development,122(1),1-17。  new window
會議論文
1.洪鴻智(1998)。模糊數學於環境風險--效益條件評價法之應用。中華民國區域科學學會1998年學術研討會。台北:國立台灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.黃弟勝、張仕獻、簡賢文、熊光華(1997)。現行防救災體系及緊急應變機制之初步探析-以賀伯颱風後之南投信義地區為對象。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
3.賴美如、洪鴻智、陳亮全(2001)。應用HAZ-Taiwan系統進行地震建物直接經濟損失之估計:以臺北市士林區為例。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
4.洪鴻智、詹士樑、陳亮全、林文苑(2000)。A Feasibility analysis on the Estimation Methods of Earthquake Economic Losses: The Taipei Case。Ottawa, Canada。  延伸查詢new window
5.Perry, D. C.、Stubbs, N.(1998)。Evaluation of Cost-Effectiveness of Various Retrofit Mitigation Strategies, Impact of New Code Provisions, and Assessment of Incentive Programs。Idaho Falls, IO。  new window
圖書
1.Zimmermann, H. J.(1992)。Fuzzy set theory and its applications。Boston, MA:Kluwer。  new window
2.Petak, W. J.、Atkisson, A. A.(1982)。Natural hazard risk assessment and public policy: anticipating the unexpected。New York:Springer-Verlag。  new window
3.Kaufmann, A.、Gupta, M. M.(1988)。Fuzzy Mathematical Models in Engineering and Management Science。Amsterdam:North-Holland。  new window
4.Tversky, A.、Kahneman, D.(1982)。Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases。Cambridge University Press。  new window
5.Federal Emergency Management Agency(1997)。Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology - HAZUS Technical Manual, Vol. III。Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology - HAZUS Technical Manual, Vol. III。Washington, DC。  new window
6.Glover, F.、Barlow, J.(1990)。A Multicriteria Stratification Framework for Uncertainty and Risk Analysis。Operations Research and Artificial Intelligence: The Integration of Problem-Solving Strategies。London, UK。  new window
7.McAllister, D. M.(1980)。Evaluation in Environmental Planning: Assessing Environmental, Social, Economics, and Political Trade-Offs。Evaluation in Environmental Planning: Assessing Environmental, Social, Economics, and Political Trade-Offs。Cambridge, MA。  new window
8.Mansur, Y. M.(1995)。Fuzzy Sets and Economics: Application of Fuzzy Mathematics to Non-Cooperative Oligopoly。Fuzzy Sets and Economics: Application of Fuzzy Mathematics to Non-Cooperative Oligopoly。Hands England。  new window
9.Shi, Yuhang、游伯龍(1989)。Habitual Domain Analysis for Effective Decision Making。Multiple Criteria Decision Making and Risk Analysis Using Microcomputers。Berlin, Germany。  new window
10.Triantaphyllou, E.、Pardalos, P. M.、Mann, S. H.(1990)。The Problem of Determining Membership Values in Fuzzy Sets in Real World Situations。Operations Research and Artificial Intelligence: The Integration of Problem-Solving Strategies。Boston, MA。  new window
11.Wilson, A. R.(1991)。Environmental Risk: Identification and Management。Environmental Risk: Identification and Management。Chelsea, MI。  new window
圖書論文
1.Zhu, Q.、Lee, E. S.(1992)。Comparison and ranking of fuzzy numbers。Fuzzy Regression Analysis。Warsaw:Omnitech Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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