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題名：臺灣生命循環消費與退休
書刊名：臺灣經濟預測與政策
作者：詹維玲 引用關係
作者(外文)：Chan, Vei-lin
出版日期：2009
卷期：39:2
頁次：頁129-159
主題關鍵詞：生命循環消費；生命循環/恆常所得假說；退休；Life-cycle consumption；Life cycle/Permanent income hypothesis；Retirement
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(5) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:5
  • 共同引用共同引用:7
  • 點閱點閱:95
本文的目的是討論退休對生命循環消費的影響。我們首先檢視以1976-2006年「家庭收支調查」的重複橫斷面混合資料所估算的生命循環消費結構。資料顯示，只有食品和與工作有關的非耐久財消費結構才有戶長一退休驟降的現象。這與許多國家相似。其中又以在外伙食和衣著消費支出的降幅最大。此外，在戶長退休後，屬於奢侈財的娛樂消遣非耐久財和屬於必需財的食品的消費支出下跌幅度相當。這與預防性儲蓄動機、沒有按計劃消費以及Becker(1965)的理論預期不一致。由於與工作爲互補的消費支出會受到退休與否的影響，故預期到的戶長退休可能可以解釋部分消費支出的退休驟降現象。我們因此在生命循環／恆常所得假說的架構下，利用歷年「家庭收支調查」資料所建立的準長期追蹤資料，估計家庭消費的擴充尤拉方程式。估計結果發現，戶長退休造成家庭非耐久財消費支出成長率顯著減少，各消費結構卻未必有同樣的結果。戶長退休只對食品和與工作有關的消費結構消費支出才有顯著的負面影響的結論，並不受估計模型納入消費過度敏感所影響。
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of retirement on lifecycle consumption. We first examine the life-cycle profiles of nondurable expenditures constructed by repeated cross-sectional data from The Survey of Family Income and Expenditure. The data show that only food and work-related nondurable expenditures fall sharply at retirement of household heads. In addition, expenditure on luxury goods such as nondurable entertainment declines as much as that of necessary goods such as food. This result is inconsistent with precautionary saving motives, poor planning or Becker (1965)'s model. We further estimate an augmented Euler equation which allows for retirement and unemployment of household heads to affect households' life-cycle consumption. The regressions use a pseudo panel dataset which is constructed from The Survey of Family Income and Expenditure. The estimation results support the conclusion that retirement can explain decreases in food and work-related nondurable expenditures around retirement regardless of the inclusion of the disposable income growth rate in the regressions.
期刊論文
1.Carroll, Christopher D.(1997)。Buffer-stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis。The Quarterly Journal of Economics，112(1)，1-55。  new window
2.Scholz, John Karl、Seshadri, Ananth、Khitatrakun, Surachai(2006)。Are Americans Saving 'Optimally' for Retirement?。Journal of Political Economy，114(4)，607-643。  new window
3.Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier、Parker, Jonathan A.(2002)。Consumption over the Life Cycle。Econometrica，70(1)，47-89。  new window
4.Deaton, Angus(1985)。Panel Data from Time Series of Cross-sections。Journal of Econometrics，30(1/2)，109-126。  new window
5.Hall, Robert E.(1988)。Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption。Journal of Political Economy，96(2)，339-357。  new window
6.Becker, Gary S.(1965)。A theory of the allocation of time。The Economic Journal，75(299)，493-517。  new window
7.詹維玲、葉金江(1998)。消費與流動性限制－臺灣的實證研究。經濟論文，26(2)，157-187。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.Aguiar, M.、Hurst, E.(2005)。Consumption versus Expenditure。Journal of Political Economy，113(5)，919-948。  new window
9.Aguiar, Mark、Hurst, Erik(2007)。Life-cycle Prices and Production。The American Economic Review，97(5)，1533-1559。  new window
10.Ameriks, John、Caplin, Andrew、Leahy, John(2007)。Retirement Consumption: Insight from a Survey。Review of Economics and Statistics，89(2)，265-274。  new window
11.Attanasio, Orazio P.、Banks, James、Meghir, Costas、Weber, Guglielmo(1999)。Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption。Journal of Business & Economic Statistics，17(1)，22-35。  new window
12.Attanasio, Orazio P.、Weber, Guglielmo(1993)。Consumption Growth, the Interest Rate and Aggregation。The Review of Economic Studies，60(3)，631-649。  new window
13.Attanasio, Orazio P.、Weber, Guglielmo(1995)。Is Consumption Growth Consistent with Intertemporal Optimization? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey。Journal of Political Economy，103(6)，1123-1157。  new window
14.Banks, James、Blundell, Richard、Tanner, Sarah(1998)。Is There a Retirement-saving Puzzle。American Economic Review，88(4)，769-788。  new window
15.Bernheim, B. Douglas、Skinner, Jonathan、Weinberg, Steven(2001)。What Accounts for the Variation in Retirement Wealth among U.S. Households?。American Economic Review，91(4)，832-857。  new window
16.Blundell, Richard、Browning, Martin、Meghir, Costas(1994)。Consumer Demand and the Life-cycle Allocation of Household Expenditures。The Review of Economic Studies，61(1)，57-80。  new window
17.Browning, M.、Crossley, T. F.(2000)。Luxuries Are Easier to Postpone: A Proof。Journal of Political Economy，108(5)，1022-1026。  new window
18.Browning, Martin、Deaton, Angus、Irish, Margaret(1985)。A Profitable Approach to Labor Supply and Commodity Demand over the Life-cycle。Econometrica，53(3)，503-543。  new window
19.Carroll, Christopher D.(1994)。How Does Future Income Affect Current Consumption?。The Quarterly Journal of Economics，109(1)，111-147。  new window
20.Cutler, David M.、Poterba, James M.、Sheiner, Louise M.、Summers, Lawrence H.、Akerlof, G. A.(1990)。An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?。Brookings Papers on Economic Activity，1990(1)，1-73。  new window
21.Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús、Krueger, Dirk(2007)。Consumption over the Life Cycle: Facts from Consumer Expenditure Survey Data。Review of Economics and Statistics，89(3)，552-565。  new window
22.Haider, Steven J.、Stephens, Melvin, Jr.(2007)。Is There a Retirement Consumption Puzzle? Evidence Using Subjective Retirement Expectations。Review of Economics and Statistics，89(2)，247-264。  new window
23.Hall, Robert E.(1978)。Stochastic Implication of the Life Cycle-permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence。Journal of Political Economy，86(6)，971-987。  new window
24.Hamermesh, Daniel S.(1984)。Consumption During Retirement: The Missing Link in the Life Cycle。Review of Economics and Statistics，66(1)，1-7。  new window
25.Mankiw, N. G.(1982)。Hall's Consumption Hypothesis and Durable Goods。Journal of Monetary Economics，10(3)，417-425。  new window
26.Paxson, Christina(1996)。Saving and Growth: Evidence from Micro Data。European Economic Review，40(2)，255-288。  new window
27.Weil, David N.(1999)。Population Growth, Dependency, and Consumption。American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings，89(2)，251-255。  new window
研究報告
1.Aguiar, M.、Hurst, E.(2008)。Deconstructing Lifecycle Expenditure。  new window
2.Ameriks, J.、Caplin, A.、Leahy, J.(2004)。The Absent-minded Consumer。  new window
3.Hock, H.、Weil, D. N.(2006)。The Dynamics of the Age Structure, Dependency, and Consumption。  new window
4.Hurd, M. D.、Rohwedder, S.(2003)。The Retirement-consumption Puzzle: Anticipated and Actual Declines in Retirement Spending。  new window
5.Hurd, M. D.、Rohwedder, S.(2006)。Some Answers to the Retirement-consumption Puzzle。  new window
6.Hurst, E.(2008)。The Retirement of a Consumption Puzzle。  new window
圖書
1.Deaton, Angus(1992)。Understanding Consumption。New York, NY：Clarendon Press。  new window
2.Carroll, Christopher D.、Summers, Lawrence H.(1991)。Consumption Growth Parallels Income Growth: Some New Evidence。National Saving and Economic Performance。Chicago, IL。  new window
其他
1.行政院經濟建設委員會(2008)。中華民國臺灣97年至145年人口推計報告，台北市：行政院經濟建設委員會。，http://www.cepd.gov.tw/ml.aspx?sNo=0000455， 。  延伸查詢new window
2.Master Card Worldwide Insights(2006)。10 Dynamic Trends Shaping the Future Consumer Markets of Asia。  new window
 
 
 
 
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