選舉新聞報道量對投票率的影響：2007年香港區議會選舉案例分析_

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題名：	選舉新聞報道量對投票率的影響：2007年香港區議會選舉案例分析
書刊名：	香港社會科學學報
作者：	李立峯
作者(外文)：	Lee, Francis L. F.
出版日期：	2010
卷期：	38
頁次：	頁1-27
主題關鍵詞：	投票率；政治參與；香港區議會選舉；媒介效應；選舉動員；District council elections；Electoral mobilization；Media effects；Political participation；Voter turnout rates
原始連結：	連回原系統網址
相關次數：	被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0) 排除自我引用:0 共同引用:0 點閱:77

本研究分析新聞媒介的選舉報道量到底對選舉投票率會否產生正面的影響。從理論上而言，在選舉過程中，傳媒報道可以被視為一股動員力量，它可以產生一個自我推展的參與循環(self-perpetuating participation cycle)，令一般市民投票的可能性有所增加。不過，媒體報道絕不是唯一影響投票率的因素，所以其力量會因應其他因素及其他動員力量的強弱而異。本研究的實證分析以2007年香港區議會選舉作為案例。我們假設媒介報道量和選區投票率相關。同時，報道量的正面影響會在人口教育程度較低的選區、人口總數較高的選區，以及過往投票率較低的選區尤為顯著。數據分析結果支持了這些假設。而後設分析則顯示選舉動員過程可以被分為登記和投票兩個階段，不同因素在兩個階段起着不同程度的作用：選區人口結構及政黨工作對選民登記比例有影響，而選戰的特徵和過程，如有否立法會議員參選及媒體報道等，則對已登記選民的投票參與有影響。

以文找文

This study analyzes the potential positive impact of the amount of news coverage on voter turnout rates in elections. Theoretically, media coverage can be regarded as a mobilization force in the electoral process. Media coverage can generate a self-perpetuating participation cycle. However, media coverage is not the only factor influencing voter turnout rates. Hence, the impact of the media would also be affected by the strengths of other mobilizing forces — media impact would be stronger when other mobilizing forces are weak. Empirically, focusing on the case of the 2007 District Council elections in Hong Kong, the outlet hypothesizes that the amount of news media coverage would positively relate to the constituency-level voter turnout rates. At the same time, the positive impact of the media should be stronger in constituencies where the populations are less educated, where the sizes of populations are larger, and where past voter turnout rates are low. Data analysis supports these hypotheses. A post-hoc analysis further shows that electoral mobilization can be differentiated into two steps — registration and voting mobilization, and different factors are at work in these two stages. Population characteristics, for example are more influential on registration rates, whereas characteristics of the actual electoral competition are more influential on actual turnout.

以文找文

期刊論文
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其他
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