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題名:兩岸賽局回顧與展望--兼論後ECFA時代新情勢
書刊名:國防雜誌
作者:柯國華
作者(外文):Ke, Kuo-hua
出版日期:2011
卷期:26:5
頁次:頁11-29
主題關鍵詞:兩岸關係賽局理論囚犯困境Cross-strait relationsGame theoryPrisoner's dilemmaECFA
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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􁀏􀈭􀈭􂣬 􀒛􀭮􂎊1949􀱺􀓠􁗶􀋫􀍗􀅊􁆹􂉟􀬃􀼾􁆹􂉟􀗶􀌳􁱿􂳧􁻄􀅊􃅼􁣅􂳺􀗶􂳥􁮢􂫶􀬞􁫧􂧄􀔽􀋫 􀔏􁊔􀅊1950-1978􀱺􀅊􀒛􀭮􀊻􁳈􀬃􀭿􀅊􀲂􁤀􀗶􀌳􁱿􀗨􂋱􀅊􀴐􀻞􀊴􀈵􀑇􀾃􂫶􀬞􀈶􀈯1979- 1986􀱺􀅊􀊑􀒠􁀏􀓛􀉺􀟡􀒛􀓼􀅊􂥶􀟧􀬁􁖣􂎔􁢕􁱿􂦓􀗺􂎞􀗶􀌳􀅊􂳆􁕀􁆹􁉅􂎔􁢕􀋜􀡫􀪭􀉿􀊃 􁄎􁾋􀅊􂎔􁢕􀋜􂄋􀾃􀈵􀑇􀾃􂫶􀬞􀈶􀅊􀊑􀒠􀔅􂳀􁞷􂳖􀒘􀈵􀟇􁨃􀟔􀣀􀈶􂫶􀬞􀈯􁳅􀓷1987-1992 􀱺􀅊􂎔􁢕􂿭􁄍􁖁􁳷􂬘􀤞􃁪􀿯􂤃􀅊􂿭􀛓􀗶􀌳􁱿􀹗􀲙􀅊􂳆􁆹􃂭􁅞􀗺􁆹􂳖􀒘􀊴􀈵􀟇􁨃􀟔􀣀􀈶 􂫶􀬞􀊑􀈯1993-1994􀱺􂲁􁖾􁈳􂦹􂿭􀛓􀊴􀒛􀭮􀗶􀌳􁱿􀤞􂿧􀅊􀗆􁉏􀗨􀋫􁼌􁶝􀈵􀟇􁨃􀟔􀣀􀈶􁱿 􀬞􃄇􀅊􀌟􁆯􀗑􀟌􀔊􂅶􂃥􁉦􁱸􂱇􂥏􂇾􀅊􀍐􀴵􀒛􀭮􃀦􀍸􀸓􀕻􀅊􀒪􀲙􀴐􀻞􀬼􁅠􂳆􀎤􃁹􁕀􁱿􀈵 􀟇􁨃􀟔􀣀􀈶􂫶􀬞􀅙􁈩􀖭􃂋􁱿􁆯1995-2007􀱺􂿵􀅊􀒛􀭮􀝏􂥶􁂽􀌳􀈵􂴗􂄳􁄎􁾋􀈶􀅊􀴐􀻞􀊴􀖭 􁑨􂳀􁔎􀖗􃋧􁱿􀈵􂍦􀬅􂫶􀬞􀈶􀈯 2008􀱺􃈸􂅶􂃥􀊀􀋶􀴰􀅊􁻬􁏎􁄊􀛧􀒛􀭮􃀦􀍸􀅊􀬃􁼼􁖎􁖉􂳀􁞷􂄷􀙏􀅊􁯍2010􀱺􀪰􀻞 ECFA􂀘􂇨􀴰􀅊􂡕􂦓􁣅􁆯60􀱺􀍗􀒛􀭮􃀦􀍸􁈱􂇾􀥑􁱿􁆹􀔀􀅊􂎊􁔍􀒛􀭮􂳖􀒘􀊴􀉺􀢍􀗶􀌳􂂇􂃥 􂰱􁣅􁻻􀪹􁱿􀈵􀟣􀾹􀒝􃓉􀈶􂫶􀬞􀈯􀗶􀌳􀰩􂃻􂿭􀦆􀅊􀗶􀌳􁱿􁛖􀕻􀋜􃃈􂨕􀹚􀅊􁛖􀕻􁱿􁻄􀲙􀵕 􃃈􁒑􂣶􀤞􃁪􀒙􂵒􂧠􀤘􁫠􂩽􀗓􀬃􀻟􁅞􀹗􀲙􀌳􁣅􂦲􁄮􁔎􀱘􁱿􀗐􂉙􀅊􀕮􀽮􀅘􀉺􀈮􀤞􃁪􀒙􂵒􁄎 􁗶􁄊􃄊􁻄􀲙􀅙􀊷􀈮􀬀􂸅􂎔􁢕􀗐􂎞􀟡􃂂􂃅􂆈􀅙􀉿􀈮􀬃􂎔􁔏􀔻􂵒􂇨􁻄􀲙􀅙􀟈􀈮􀬃􁅠􀊑􂓧􁖁 􀟡􀊙􁓏􁱿􀼫􂦓􀈯􂉟􂎔􁢕􂳺􁆹􁱿􂳥􁮢􀈵􁄍􂄷􀋅􁙟􀈶􁮚􂎏􀈵􂢈􁔎􀊃􀔊􀈶􀗨􀋫􀻞􁣅􁈷􁄓􁱿􀬃 􀼾􁾋􁯆􀈯􁫠􃁹􁕀􀒛􀭮􀊏􁤀􂳖􂠗􁄎􁗶􂦹􀓱􁱿􁌻􀋴􀅊􀻟􀟡􁄎􀲓􁱿􀤞􃁪􁄎􁾋􀗣􁈷􂫅􂲖􁖁􀸲􀅊 􁔎􁔎􁣅􁥸􀈮􂠗􁻻􂎐􂳵􀅊􁅞􂋱􀟱􀪮􀒚􁱿􀡣􁸞􀊀􀔡􂳍􀙏􀱹􂅺􁏳􁱿􁉍􀍗􀈯
Abstract Taiwan and Mainland China have partitioned since 1949, the process of confront or cooperation from time to time is suitable to be applied the game theory analyzes. 1950-1978, Taiwan and Mainland China confronted each other, almost no possibility of cooperation have resulted in􀉆deadlock game􀉇. 1979-1986, the Mainland China proposed􀉆one country, two systems􀉇, attempting to seek for Taiwan's approval and cooperation. However, Taiwaninsisted the􀉆three no's􀉇policies. As a result, Taiwan remains􀉆deadlock game􀉇, on the other hand, Mainland China gradually enters􀉆prisoner's dilemma􀉇. Until 1987-1992, Taiwan's resident were able to visit relatives in Mainland China created the new manner of cooperation, Taiwan and Mainland China simultaneously entered􀉆prisoner's dilemma􀉇. 1993-1994 "Koo- Wang Talks" has opened Taiwan and Mainland China cooperation front door, might break through􀉆prisoner's dilemma􀉇originally, but because former president Lee Teng-hui visited US, it caused the cross-Strait relations getting worse and it formed once again to the stage of􀉆prisoner's dilemma􀉇. The relation became even worse was during 1995-2007, Taiwan and Mainland China attempt to manipulate the􀉆brinkmanship􀉇which formed the gradually increase of crisis, is called􀉆chicken of games􀉇. In 2008, the President Ma Ying-jeou improves the cross-Strait relations positively, the confrontation atmosphere ease gradually, when after ECFA signed completely in 2010, it was considered the best moment for the cross-Strait relations in 60 years, from now on Taiwan and Mainland China will move on a stable cooperation system and form the games of􀉆 Stag hunt􀉇. The cooperation already started, but the depth of cooperation must be discreet. The degree of depth must evaluate and inspect Mainland China's domestic phenomena and attitude toward Taiwan so that Taiwan can adjust the pace of progress. They are included: first, the degree of internal political reform in Mainland China, second, respect for Taiwan's participation in international organizations, third, the degree of force deploy the mainland China to Taiwan and fourth, the recognition of sovereignty of the Republic of China. Taiwan use􀉆postpones to exchange􀉇or even􀉆binds step􀉇timely may become the effective counter-strategies. At present, there is no condition for cross-strait political negotiations. Our government's policy toward Mainland China is only to close the public, at every step, steady progress in order to create security on the basis of future peace and prosperity.
期刊論文
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8.包宗和(1990)。臺海兩岸互動的理論與政策面向(1950-1989)。臺北:三民書局。new window  延伸查詢new window
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其他
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圖書論文
1.Pederson, M. Susan、Weeks, Stanley(1995)。A Survey of Confidence and Security Building Measures。Asia Pacific Confidence and Security Building Measures。Washington, D.C.:Center for Strategic and International Studies。  new window
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