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題名：知人知面不知心：購屋者房價預期之分析
書刊名：都市與計劃
作者：陳佳甫／張金鶚 引用關係／謝博明
作者(外文)：Chen, Chia-fu／Chang, Chin-oh／Hsieh, Bor-ming
出版日期：2012
卷期：39:4
頁次：頁349-373
主題關鍵詞：房價預期；預期異質性；多項羅吉特模型；House price expectation；Heterogeneity of expectation；Multinomial logit model
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:72
  • 點閱點閱:264
住宅產品異質性高，且具有投資與消費雙重特性，過去研究多從總體面來探討房價預期假說，並已提出許多實證結果驗證，但是甚少從個體觀點來探究消費者對於房價預期的看法。因此，本文從個體面探討房地產市場環境、購屋者身分與心理行為以及其購屋偏好等因素對房價預期的影響，以及在不同景氣狀況之下購屋者對房價預期之差異。本文利用「台灣地區住宅需求動向調查」 2007~2008年的資料，以購屋者對房價預期為類別變數，並使用多項羅吉特模型估計各影響因素對房價預期的影響程度。實證結果顯示購屋者身分、行為、目的與認知使得對房價預期產生差異，支持消費者對房價預期差異之假說。而女性購屋者對房價波動較敏感且對房價較樂觀，因此對房價看漲機率較男性高。此外，不同房地產景氣階段將導致購屋目的改變，在房地產景氣時購屋投資比例增加，購屋者房價預期差異較不景氣時各項差異均呈現增大趨勢。
Housing products are highly heterogeneous and reflect both investment and consumption behaviors. Previous studies have obtained outcomes with respect to the analysis of real estate price expectations from a macro perspective, but few studies have examined this area from a micro perspective. This study thus adopted a micro perspective to analyze the impacts of real estate market conditions, and home purchaser socio-economic characteristics and preferences on house price expectations. The data were collected from the 2007-2008 Housing Demand Survey, and a multinomial logit model was employed to estimate the influences of various factors on the multiple choice type dependent variable of house price expectations. The study results show that home purchaser socio-economic characteristics, purchasing behavior, purpose and recognition significantly influence different house price expectations. The results support our hypothesis regarding the variation of consumer house price expectations. Female home purchasers are more sensitive to price fluctuations and more likely to be optimistic regarding housing prices. Additionally, home purchaser price expectations are more likely to differ, especially in boom markets.
期刊論文
1.陳明吉、Patel, Kanak(20021200)。An Empirical Analysis of Determination of Housing Prices in the Taipei Area。經濟論文叢刊，30(4)，563-595。new window  new window
2.花敬群、張金鶚(19990700)。成屋市場與預售屋市場之價量關係：住宅存量--流量模型的檢討與修正。Proceedings of the National Science Council. Part C, Humanities and Social Sciences，9(3)，494-504。  延伸查詢new window
3.郭敏華、郭迺鋒、邱耀初、范秉航(20050800)。性別與投資行為：以臺灣股票市場為例。財務金融學刊，13(2)，1-28。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.Muth, John F.(1961)。Rational expectations and the theory of price movements。Econometrica，29(3)，315-335。  new window
5.張金鶚、陳明吉、鄧筱蓉、楊智元(20091200)。臺北市房價泡沫知多少？--房價vs.租金、房價vs.所得。住宅學報，18(2)，1-22。new window  延伸查詢new window
6.Barber, Brad M.、Odean, Terrance(2001)。Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment。The Quarterly Journal of Economics，116(1)，261-292。  new window
圖書
1.Greene, William H.(2002)。Limdep Version 8.0, Econometric Modeling Guide。Australia：Econometric Software, Inc。  new window
2.郭敏華(2008)。行為財務學：當財務學遇上心理學。臺北市：智勝文化事業有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
3.Allison, Paul D.(1999)。Logistic Regression Using the SAS System: Theory and Application。Cary, NC：SAS Institute。  new window
4.王濟川、郭志剛(2005)。Logistic迴歸模型--方法與應用。台北：五南圖書。  延伸查詢new window
5.張春興(2003)。心理學原理。東華書局。  延伸查詢new window
其他
1.周美伶(2006)。購屋搜尋行為之探討--搜尋期間與管道、個人認知與預期、租買經驗之分析。  延伸查詢new window
2.林佑儒、張金鶚(2010)。為什麼購屋者認為房價不合理仍進場購屋？。  延伸查詢new window
3.邱于修(2008)。投資型購屋者機率模型之建立。  延伸查詢new window
4.彭建文、張金鶚(2000)。預期景氣與宣告效果對房地產景氣之影響。  延伸查詢new window
5.廖仲仁、張金鶚(2004)。搜尋成本與定錨效果對於購屋者價格貼水之影響。  延伸查詢new window
6.鄭旭智、張育哲、潘倩玉、林克明(2002)。類別與受限應變項的迴歸統計模式。  延伸查詢new window
7.賴景昌(2005)。總體經濟學。  延伸查詢new window
8.Case, K.E. and Shiller, R.J.(1989)。The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets。  new window
9.Clayton, J.(1997)。Are housing price cycle driven by irrational expectations?。  new window
10.DiPasquale, D and Wheaton, W.C.(1996)。Urban Economic and Real Estate Markets。  new window
11.Dusansky, R. and Cagatay, K.(2007)。The capital gains effect in the demand of housing。  new window
12.Estelami, H., Lehmann, D. R. and Holden, A. C.(2001)。Macro-economic determinants of consumer price knowledge: A meta-analysis of four decades of research。  new window
13.Hui, E. and Lui, T.(2002)。Rational expectation and market fundamentals: Evidence from Hong Kong’s boom and bust cycle。  new window
14.Jonung, L.(1981)。Perceived and expected rates of inflation in Sweden。  new window
15.Kim, C.H. and Kim, K H.(1999)。Expectation and housing price dynamics following deregulation in Korea。  new window
16.Lee, N. J.(2003)。Expected return of housing and mortgage termination。  new window
17.Malpezzi, S and Watcher, S.(2005)。The role of speculation in real estate cycles。  new window
18.Minford, P. and Peel, D.(2002)。Advanced Macroeconomics。  new window
19.Ong, S. E., Har, P. and Tu, Y.(2008)。Foreclosure sales: The effects of price expectations, volatility and equity losses。  new window
20.Ranyard, R. FD Missier, N Bonini, D Duxbury and Summers, B.(2008)。Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework。  new window
21.Rouwendal, J and Longhi, S.(2008)。The effect of consumers’ expectations in a booming housing market: Space-time patterns in the Netherlands, 1999-2000。  new window
22.Souleles, N. S.(2004)。Expectations, heterogeneous forecast errors, and consumption: Micro evidence from the Michigan consumer sentiment surveys。  new window
23.Taltavull, P. & McGreal, S.(2009)。Measuring price expectations: Evidence from the Spanish housing market。  new window
24.Wong, J. and Hui, C. M.(2006)。Research notes: Power of expectations。  new window
 
 
 
 
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