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題名：臺商赴大陸投資實質選擇權之實證研究--以階層線性模式分析
書刊名：管理學報
作者：鄭宗松 引用關係／溫福星 引用關係／張景峰 引用關係／陳富德
作者(外文)：Cheng, Johnson T. S.／Wen, Fur-hsing／Chang, Ching-feng／Chen, Fu-te
出版日期：2013
卷期：30:3
頁次：頁241-261
主題關鍵詞：遞延選擇權；實質選擇權理論；階層線性迴歸模式；Deferral option；Real options；Hierarchical linear modeling
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:3
  • 共同引用共同引用:32
  • 點閱點閱:68
在傳統資本預算決策下，公司對於新進市場投資時點，在傳統淨現值法（Net Present Value，NPV）認為，只要投資計畫淨值大於零，此項計畫就值得執行。但此理論卻忽略投資計畫具有未來報酬的不確定性、投資的不可回復性與可以遞延選擇投資時間等三個特色。本文之所以採用實質選擇權理論（Real Options Approach）就是修正淨現值法之缺失，將投資決策的管理彈性納入模型之中。此外，以台商創造價值為例，本文利用階層線性迴歸模式（Hierarchical Linear Modeling）將變數區分為產業因素與個別企業因素，修正O'Brien 等人加總的謬誤（2003）。本文結論為若要創造企業實質選擇權價值，產業風險愈低公司應該要更積極的尋找讓公司成長的機會，所以應該要提早進入新市場投資；另外個別公司自身面對的不確定性愈大，但是產業風險很低的情況下，會建議經理人提早進入新市場投資。
In Taiwan, many companies enter to new market in order to pursue growth opportunity. Because the timing of entering new market is important, it will influence the results of entering new market projects. Therefore this paper tries to understand companies how to choose the entrance timing and find some results. In the traditional capital budgeting decision, companies which enter to new market often used net present value (NPV) approach. If NPV is greater than zero, we accept the project and execute it. But NPV ignores three features of investment decision: uncertainty, irreversibility and ability to wait. This paper uses real options approach to correct the error and adds management flexibility to NPV. Besides, this paper adopts hierarchical linear model (HLM) to distinguish industrial factors and company factors. Therefore, this study modified O'Brien et al., (2003) logistic regression model that puts all variables into a linear regression function to avoid fallacy of aggregation. The results of this paper had two implications. If industrial risk is low, companies should enter to new market earlier. Moreover, when individual company faces greater uncertainty and lower industry risk, manager should enter to new market earlier.
期刊論文
1.林妙雀、鄭宗松、陳伯源(2009)。需求彈性與不確定性對品牌延伸決策之影響：實質選擇權法。臺大管理論叢，19(特刊)，61-94。  延伸查詢new window
2.郭芝延、張嘉玲(20110600)。臺商赴中國大陸投資策略之決定因素--上市櫃公司為例。貿易調查叢刊，22(1)，105-144。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.謝瀛洲(19940500)。企業的營運資金和短期融資實務。彰銀資料，43(5)，1-13。  延伸查詢new window
4.謝瀛洲(19940400)。企業的營運資金和短期融資實務。彰銀資料，43(4)，17-30。  延伸查詢new window
5.Cukierman, A.(1980)。The effects of uncertainty in investment under risk neutrality with endogenous information。Journal of Political Economy，88，462-475。  new window
6.Folta, T. B.、Miller, K. D.(2002)。Research notes and commentaries real options in equity partnerships。Strategic Management Journal，23(1)，77-88。  new window
7.Kumar, M. V. S.(2005)。The value from acquiring and divesting a joint venture: a real options approach。Strategic Management Journal，26(4)，321-331。  new window
8.Lee, T. J.、Caves, R. E.(1998)。Uncertain Outcomes of Foreign Investment: Determinants of the Dispersion of Profits after Large Acquisitions。Journal of International Business Studies，29(3)，563-581。  new window
9.McDonald, R. L.,、Siegel, D. R.(1986)。Investment and valuation of firms when there is an option to shut down。International Economic Review，26，331-349。  new window
10.Michailidis, A.(2006)。Managing tourism investment opportunities under uncertainty: a real options approach。International Journal of Tourism Research，8，381-390。  new window
11.Rivoli, P.、Salorio, W.(1996)。Foreign Direct Investment and Investment under Uncertainty。Journal of International Business Studies，26，335-358。  new window
12.Sáenz Diez, Rocio,、Gimeno, Ricardo,、de Abajo, Carlos(2008)。Real options valuation: a case study of an E-commerce company。Journal of Applied Corporate Finance，20，129-143。  new window
13.O'Brien, J. R、Folta, T. B.、Johnson, D. R.(2003)。A Real Options Perspective on Entrepreneurial Entry in the Face of Uncertainty。Managerial and Decision Economics，24(8)，515-533。  new window
14.Smith, C.(1977)。Alternative Methods for Raising Capital: Rights versus Underwritten Offerings。Journal of Financial Economics，5(3)，273-307。  new window
15.廖四郎、陳坤銘、鄭宗松(20030900)。最適投資決策與產品生命週期--實質選擇權分析法。中山管理評論，11(3)，571-596。new window  延伸查詢new window
16.Gronhaug, K.、Fredriksen, T.(1988)。Concentration ratios, strategy and performance: The case of the Norwegian telecommunications industry。Managerial and Decision Economics，9(4)，257-262。  new window
17.Luehrman, Timothy A.(1998)。Strategy as a portfolio of real options。Harvard Business Review，76(5)，89-100。  new window
18.Dixit, Avinash K.(1989)。Entry and exit decisions under uncertainty。Journal of Political Economy，97(3)，620-638。  new window
19.Hayes, R. H.、Garvin, D. A.(1982)。Managing as if Tomorrow Mattered。Harvard Business Review，60(3)，71-79。  new window
20.Luo, Yadong(1998)。Timing of Investment and International Expansion Performance in China。Journal of International Business Studies，29(2)，391-408。  new window
21.Pindyck, Robert S.(1991)。Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment。Journal of Economic Literature，29(3)，1110-1148。  new window
22.Kogut, B.、Kulatilaka, N.(1994)。Operating Flexibility, Global Manufacturing, and the Option Value of a Multinational Network。Management Science，40(1)，123-139。  new window
23.Bowman, E. H.、Hurry, D.(1993)。Strategy through the option lens: An integrated view of resource investments and the incremental-choice process。The Academy of Management Review，18(4)，760-782。  new window
24.Flota, T. B.、O'Brien, J. P.(2004)。Entry in the presence of dueling options。Strategic Management Journal，25(2)，121-138。  new window
25.Folta, T. B.(1998)。Governance and Uncertainty: the Trade-off Between Administrative Control and Commitment。Strategic Management Journal，19(11)，1007-1028。  new window
26.Kogut, B.(1991)。Joint ventures and the option to expand and acquire。Management Science，37(1)，19-33。  new window
27.McGrath, R. G.(1997)。A real options logic for initiating technology positioning investments。Academy of Management Review，22(4)，974-996。  new window
28.Markusen, James R.(1983)。Factor Movements and Commodity Trade As Complements。Journal of International Economics，14(3/4)，341-356。  new window
29.Mundell, Robert A.(1957)。International Trade and Factor Mobility。The American Economic Review，47(3)，321-335。  new window
30.Bernstein, J. I.、Nadiri, I. M.(1988)。Interindustry R&D Spillovers, Rates of Return, and Production in High-tech Industries。The American Economic Review，78(2)，429-434。  new window
31.Van Der Ploeg, F.、De Metz, D.(1987)。Production Flexibility as a Motive for Multinationality。Journal of Industrial Economics，35(3)，343-351。  new window
32.Campa, Joes M.(1993)。Entry by Foreign Firms in the United States under Exchange Rate Uncertainty。Review of Economics and Statistics，75，614-622。  new window
33.Bloom, Nicholas、John Van Reenen(2002)。Patents, Real Options and Firm Performance。Economic Journal，112(3)，97-116。  new window
34.Lyons, B.、Matraves, C.、Moffatt, P.(2001)。Industrial Concentration and Market Integration in the European Union。Economica，68(269)，1-26。  new window
會議論文
1.鄭宗松(2006)。產品生命週期與技術創新與品牌價值376-387。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.高夢鴻(2008)。多層次邏吉斯迴歸應用於公司信用風險違約機率之研究(碩士論文)。東吳大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.楊海倫(2005)。產業風險指標之研究(碩士論文)。東吳大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Hymer, S.(1960)。The International O perations of National Firms。Cambridge：MIT Press。  new window
2.Marshal(1920)。Industry and Trade。London：Macmillan。  new window
3.余朝權(1994)。產業競爭分析專論。臺北：五南。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.溫福星(2006)。階層線性模式：理論、方法與應用。臺北市：雙葉書廊有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
5.郭敏華(2000)。債信評等。臺北市：智勝文化。  延伸查詢new window
6.Dixit, Avinash K.、Pindyck, Robert S.(1994)。Investment Under Uncertainty。Princeton University Press。  new window
7.Lorsch, J. W.、Donaldson, G.(1983)。Decision making at the top: the shaping of strategic direction。New York, NY：Basic Books。  new window
圖書論文
1.Cooper, A. C、Folta, T. B.(2000)。Entrepreneurship and high-technology clusters。The Blackwell Handbook of Entrepreneurship。Oxford：Blackwell publishers。  new window
 
 
 
 
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