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題名：Measuring Public Opinion toward Social Welfare in Taiwan
書刊名：臺灣政治學刊
作者：蔡佳泓
作者(外文)：Tsai, Chia-hung
出版日期：2015
卷期：19:1
頁次：頁241-279
主題關鍵詞：民意；社會福利；多層次貝氏統計模型加上事後加權；Public opinion；Social welfare；Multilevel regression with poststratification
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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政策與偏好的關聯是政治學的重要關懷之一。過去對於政策與投票的研究偏重個體的層級，並未考慮整體層次的政策民意的穩定性。本文利用2007年至2013年所收集的電話訪問以及網路民調資料，以多層次貝氏統計模型加上事後加權（MRP），估計各縣市民眾對於增加或是減少社會福利預算的偏好，克服縣市的觀察值不一所造成的不確定性。結果發現，雖然民意的穩定程度並不高，但是這個方法可以提供相當可信的估計。各縣市的社福預算民意似乎在2010年之後傾向緊縮，意味著在社福預算一直增加的情況下，民眾開始持保留的態度。
Policy representation has been one of the foremost topics in political science. The pre-condition is the stability of policy preferences. While individual opinions may be influenced by many sources, scholars have found the macro level of opinion to be stable. The disaggregation of survey data may lead to the problem of a large standard deviation being encountered due to the small number of observations in some counties.Therefore, multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) is used to estimate public opinion toward budget spending on social welfare between 2007 and 2013. These MRP estimates are validated. However, this data analysis shows mixed results regarding the stability of public opinion in Taiwan.
期刊論文
1.Soroka, Stuart、Wlezien, Christopher(2005)。Opinion-policy Dynamics: Public Preferences and Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom。British Journal of Political Science，35(4)，665-689。  new window
2.Warshaw, Chris、Rodden, Jonathan(2012)。How Should We Measure District-level Public Opinion on Individual Issues?。Journal of Politics，74(1)，203-219。  new window
3.Western, Bruce(1998)。Causal Heterogeneity in Comparative Research: A Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling Approach。American Journal of Political Science，42(4)，1233-1259。  new window
4.Wlezien, Christopher(1995)。The Public as Thermostat: Dynamics of Preferences for Spending。American Journal of Political Science，39(4)，981-1000。  new window
5.Soroka, Stuart、Wlezien, Christopher(2004)。Opinion Representation and Policy Feedback: Canada in Comparative Perspective。Canadian Journal of Political Science，37(3)，531-559。  new window
6.Ansolabehere, Stephen、Rodden, Jonathan、Snyder, Jr. James(2008)。The Strength of Issues: Using Multiple Measures to Gauge Preference Stability, Ideological Constraint, and Issue Voting。American Political Science Review，102(2)，215-232。  new window
7.Enns, Peter K.、Kellstadt, Paul M.(2008)。Policy Mood and Political Sophistication: Why Everybody Moves Mood。British Journal of Political Science，38，433-454。  new window
8.Lax, Jeffrey R.、Phillips, Justin H.(2009)。How Should We Estimate Public Opinion in the States?。American Journal of Political Science，53(1)，107-121。  new window
9.Park, David、Gelman, Andrew、Bafumi, Joseph(2004)。Bayesian Multilevel Estimation with Postratification: State-Level Estimates from National Polls。Political Analysis，12(4)，375-385。  new window
10.Tausanovitch, Chris、Warshaw, Chris(2013)。Measuring Constituent Policy Preferences in Congress, State Legislatures, and Cities。Journal of Politics，75(2)，330-342。  new window
11.Tsai, Chia-hung(2014)。Incumbent Support: Data Analysis Using Bayesian Multilevel Models。Taiwan Journal of Applied Economics，96，69-104。  new window
12.Tsai, Chia-hung(2011)。Evaluating the Responsiveness of Local Governments in Taiwan: A Case Study of Policies and Public Opinion between 2006 and 2007。Taiwan Political Science Review，15(1)，73-136。  new window
13.Gelman, Andrew(2006)。Prior Distributions for Variance Parameters in Hierarchical Models。Bayesian Analysis，1(3)，515-533。  new window
14.Hsieh, John Fun-sheng、Niou, Emerson M. S.(199605)。Salient Issue in Taiwan's Electoral Politics。Electoral Studies，15(2)，219-235。  new window
15.Achen, Christopher H.(1975)。Mass Political Attitudes and the Survey Response。American Political Science Review，69(4)，1218-1231。  new window
16.Lupia, Arthur(1994)。Shortcuts versus Encyclopedias: Information and Voting Behavior in California Insurance Reform Elections。American Political Science Review，88(1)，63-76。  new window
研究報告
1.Tsai, Chia(2006)。Multi-level Bayesian Analysis of Policy Preference and Political Behavior in Taiwan (計畫編號：NSC 95-2414-H-004-047-SSS)。Taipei：National Science Council。  new window
2.Tsai, Chia-hung(2009)。Public Opinion and Policy Representation in Taiwan (計畫編號：NSC 98-2410-H-004-069-MY3)。Taipei：National Science Council。  new window
3.Tsai, Chia-hung(2012)。Policy Orientation, Performance Evaluations and Voting Behavior: Measurement and Model (計畫編號：NSC 101-2410-H-004-113-SS3)。Taipei：National Science Council。  new window
學位論文
1.Pacheco, Julianna(2010)。Dynamic Public Opinion and Policy Responsiveness in the American States(博士論文)。Pennsylvania State University。  new window
圖書
1.Soroka, Stuart、Wlezien, Christopher(2009)。Degrees of Democracy: Politics, Public Opinion, and Policy。Cambridge：Cambridge University Press。  new window
2.Fell, Dafydd(1991)。Party Politics in Taiwan: Party Change and the Democratic Evolution of Taiwan, 1991-2004。London, UK：Routledge。  new window
3.Erikson, Robert S.、Wright, Gerald C.、Mclver, John P.(1993)。Statehouse Democracy: Public Opinion and Policy in the American States。New York：Cambridge University Press。  new window
4.Erikson, Robert S.、Mackuen, Michael B.、Stimson, James A.(2002)。The Macro Polity。Cambridge：New York：Cambridge University Press。  new window
5.Page, Benjamin、Shapiro, Robert(1992)。The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in American's Policy Preferences。Chicago：University of Chicago Press。  new window
6.Rigger, Shelley(2001)。From Opposition to Power: Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party。Boulder, Colorado：Lynne Rienner Publishers。  new window
7.Gelman, Andrew、Hill, Jennifer(2007)。Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models。Cambridge University Press。  new window
8.Delli Carpini, Michael X.、Keeter, Scott(1996)。What Americans Know about Politics and Why It Matters。Yale University Press。  new window
其他
1.Ghitza, Yair，Gelman, Andrew(2014)。Deep Interactions with MRP: Presidential Turnout and Voting Patterns Among Small Electoral Subgroups，http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/deep-inter.pdf， 2014/01/14。  new window
2.Kastellec, Jonathan P，Lax, Jeffrey R.，Phillips, Justin H.(2014)。Estimating State Public Opinion With Multi-Level Regression and Poststratification using R.，http://www.princeton.edu/-jkastell/MRPjprimer/mrpjprimer.pdf， 2014/01/10。  new window
圖書論文
1.Delli Carpini, Michael X.(2005)。An Overview of the State of Citizens, Knowledge about Politics。Communicating Politics: Engaging the Public in Democratic Life。New York, NY：Peter Lang International Academic Publishers。  new window
2.Converse, Philip E.(1964)。The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics。Ideology and Discontent。Free Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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