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題名：臺灣匯率貶值政策之探討
書刊名：經濟論文叢刊
作者：陳旭昇
作者(外文)：Chen, Shiu-sheng
出版日期：2019
卷期：47:1
頁次：頁41-74
主題關鍵詞：中央銀行；匯率貶值政策；Central bank；Exchange rate undervaluation policy
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:71
  • 點閱點閱:3
本文檢視台灣中央銀行自1998－2010年間的匯率貶值政策，目的在於釐清台灣央行是否執行匯率貶值政策，並進一步檢討匯率貶值政策與經濟成長，產業發展，利率政策，房屋價格以及財政收支結構之關係。整體而言，我們說明了台灣央行自1998－2010年間的匯率貶值政策對於台灣經濟可能造成諸多的負面影響。我們建議，央行的貨幣政策必須改弦易張，揚棄匯率貶值政策，並且應減少外匯市場干預與增加匯率政策的透明度與可究責性。
This paper investigates the exchange rate undervaluation policy in Taiwan since 1998. We examine how currency undervaluation affects economic growth, industrial upgrading, monetary policy, house prices, and fiscal structure. Overall, we argue that the undervaluation policy adopted by the Central Bank of Taiwan has several negative impacts on Taiwan's economy. It is suggested that the Central Bank of Taiwan should discard the undervaluation policy. The authorities should move towards a more fully market-determined exchange rate, reduce foreign exchange interventions, and increase the transparency and accountability of exchange rate policy.
期刊論文
1.沈中華、徐千婷(20001200)。權衡性貨幣回饋法則：以臺灣為例。經濟論文，28(4)，339-367。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Shen, C. H.、Chen, S. W.(2004)。Long swing in appreciation and short swing in depreciation and does the market not know it?: the case of Taiwan。International Economic Journal，18(2)，195–213。  new window
3.吳致寧、李慶男、張志揚、林依伶、陳佩玗、林雅淇(20110900)。再論臺灣非線性利率法則。經濟論文，39(3)，307-338。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.林依伶、張志揚、陳佩玗(20120300)。臺灣利率法則之實證研究--考慮匯率變動之不對稱性效果。中央銀行季刊，34(1)，39-62。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.姚睿、朱俊虹、吳俊毅(20101000)。臺灣泰勒法則估計之資料訊息問題。臺灣經濟預測與政策，41(1)，85-119。new window  延伸查詢new window
6.吳致寧、黃惠君、汪建南、吳若瑋(20120600)。再探臺灣匯率制度。經濟論文叢刊，40(2)，261-288。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.吳若瑋、吳致寧(20140300)。臺灣利率法則之估計--即時資料vs.修正資料。經濟論文，42(1)，31-78。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.Sarno, Lucio、Taylor, Mark P.(2001)。Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If so, How Does it Work?。Journal of Economic Literature，39(3)，839-868。  new window
9.陳旭昇、吳聰敏(20080600)。臺灣匯率制度初探。經濟論文叢刊，36(2)，147-182。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.張興華(20130900)。從央行干預新聞分析臺灣央行外匯市場干預與臺幣匯率之關係。證券市場發展，25(3)=99，95-122。new window  延伸查詢new window
11.陳旭昇、吳聰敏(20100300)。臺灣貨幣政策法則之檢視。經濟論文，38(1)，33-59。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.Filardo, Andrew J.(1994)。Business Cycle Phases and their Transitional Dynamics。Journal of Business and Economic Statistics，12(3)，299-308。  new window
13.McDonald, John F.、Stokes, Houston H.(2013)。Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble。Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics，46(3)，437-451。  new window
14.Chen, Shiu-Sheng(2017)。Exchange Rate Undervaluation and R&D Activity。Journal of International Money and Finance，72，148-160。  new window
15.Couharde, Cécile、Sallenave, Audrey(2013)。How Do Currency Misalignments' Threshold Affect Economic Growth?。Journal of Macroeconomics，36，106-120。  new window
16.Rodrik, Dani(2008)。The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth。Brookings Papers on Economic Activity，39(2)，365-439。  new window
17.吳中書(20141000)。眾說紛紜的匯率政策。臺灣經濟預測與政策，45(1)，113-122。new window  延伸查詢new window
18.柯秀欣(20180600)。臺灣央行外匯市場干預對臺美匯率之影響--媒體資料之應用。經濟論文叢刊，46(2)，297-332。new window  延伸查詢new window
19.Bøler, Esther Ann、Moxnes, Andreas、Ulltveit-Moe, Karen Helene(2015)。R&D, international sourcing, and the joint impact on firm performance。American Economic Review，105(12)，3704-3739。  new window
20.Adler, Gustavo、Castro, Pedro、Tovar, Camilo E.(2016)。Does central bank capital matter for monetary policy?。Open Economies Review，27(1)，183-205。  new window
21.Calvo, Guillermo A.、Reinhart, Carmen M.(2002)。Fear of floating。The Quarterly Journal of Economics，117(2)，379-408。  new window
22.Eickmeier, Sandra、Hofmann, Boris(2013)。Monetary policy, housing booms, and financial (im) balances。Macroeconomic dynamics，17(4)，830-860。  new window
23.Hsu, Song-Ken、Tsai, Ming-Fang、Yang, Chih-Hai(2008)。Market structure, external exposure and industry profitability: evidence from Taiwan。International Economic Journal，22(2)，201-214。  new window
24.Haddad, Mona、Pancaro, Cosimo(2010)。Can real exchange rate undervaluation boost exports and growth in developing countries? Yes, but not for long。Economic Premise，20，1-5。  new window
25.Glüzmann, Pablo Alfredo、Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo、Sturzenegger, Federico(2012)。Exchange rate undervaluation and economic growth: Díaz Alejandro (1965) revisited。Economics Letters，117(3)，666-672。  new window
26.Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo、Sturzenegger, Federico、Gluzmann, Pablo Alfredo(2013)。Fear of appreciation。Journal of Development Economics，101，233-247。  new window
27.Magud, Nicolás、Sosa, Sebastián(2013)。When and why worry about real exchange rate appreciation? The missing link between Dutch disease and growth。Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy，4(2)。  new window
28.O'Meara, Graeme(2015)。Housing bubbles and monetary policy: a reassessment。The Economic and Social Review，46(4)，521-565。  new window
29.Nouira, Ridha、Sekkat, Khalid(2012)。Desperately seeking the positive impact of undervaluation on growth。Journal of Macroeconomics，34(2)，537-552。  new window
30.McDonald, John F.、Stokes, Houston H.(2015)。Monetary policy, fiscal policy, and the housing bubble。Modern Economy，6(2)，165-178。  new window
31.Schröder, Marcel(2013)。Should developing countries undervalue their currencies?。Journal of Development Economics，105，140-151。  new window
32.Shiller, Robert J.(2006)。Long-term perspectives on the current boom in home prices。The Economists' Voice，3(4)，1-11。  new window
33.Tsai, I-Chun(2015)。Monetary policy and bubbles in the national and regional UK housing markets。Urban Studies，52(8)，1471-1488。  new window
34.陳旭昇(20160600)。央行「阻升不阻貶」？--再探臺灣匯率不對稱干預政策。經濟論文叢刊，44(2)，187-213。  延伸查詢new window
35.王泓仁(20050300)。臺幣匯率對我國經濟金融活動之影響。中央銀行季刊，27(1)，13-45。new window  延伸查詢new window
會議論文
1.許嘉棟(2014)。台灣的匯率政策。于宗先院士公共政策研討會。台北：中央研究院經濟研究所。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.Bordo, Michael D.、Landon-Lane, John(2013)。Does expansionary monetary policy cause asset price booms; some historical and empirical evidence。  new window
2.Berg, Andrew、Miao, Yanliang(2010)。The real exchange rate and growth revisited: The Washington Consensus strikes back?。  new window
3.Eichengreen, Barry(2008)。The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth。World Bank。  new window
4.Bordo, Michael D.、Landon-Lane, John(2013)。What explains house price booms? History and empirical evidence。  new window
5.Freund, Caroline、Pierola, Martha Denisse(2008)。Export surges: the power of a competitive currency。World Bank。  new window
6.Korinek, Anton、Serven, Luis(2010)。Undervaluation through foreign reserve accumulation: Static losses, dynamic gains。World Bank。  new window
7.Hott, Christian、Jokipii, Terhi(2012)。Housing Bubbles and Interest Rates。Swiss National Bank。  new window
8.Kuttner, Kenneth N.(2012)。Low interest rates and housing bubbles: still no smoking gun。Williams College。  new window
9.MacDonald, Ronald、Vieira, Flavio V.(2010)。A panel data investigation of real exchange rate misalignment and growth。  new window
10.Rodrik, Dani(2011)。The future of economic convergence。  new window
11.Yu, Qiao、Fan, Hanwen、Wu, Xun(2015)。Global Saving Glut, Monetary Policy, and Housing Bubble: Further Evidence。Brookings Institution。  new window
學位論文
1.劉彥汝(2012)。繳庫盈餘與央行的貨幣及匯率政策(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Bergsten, C. Fred、Gagnon, Joseph E.(2012)。Currency Manipulation, the US Economy, and the Global Economic Order。Waishington：Peterson Institute for International Economics。  new window
其他
1.Woodford, Michael(2009)。Is an undervalued currency the key to economic growth?，Columbia University。  new window
圖書論文
1.Bernanke, Ben S.(2011)。Rebalancing the Global Recovery。Approaches to Monetary Policy Revisited: Lessons from the Crisis。Frankfurt：European Central Bank。  new window
2.Fatás, Antonio、Kannan, Prakash、Rabanal, Pau、Scott, Alasdair(2009)。Lessons for monetary policy from asset price fluctuations。World Economic Outlook, October 2009: Sustaining the Recovery。Washington, DC：IMF。  new window
 
 
 
 
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