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題名:建構臺灣的外匯市場干預資料
書刊名:經濟論文叢刊
作者:李秀雲
作者(外文):Lee, Hsiu-yun
出版日期:2021
卷期:49:1
頁次:頁131-166
主題關鍵詞:外匯存底匯率外匯市場央行干預Foreign reservesExchange rateForeign exchange marketIntervention
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 共同引用共同引用:54
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本文分解我國外匯存底的變動成干預、外匯孳息與資產價值重估三部份,得到1982-2015年間其增加中近六成來自孳息、四成多來自淨買匯干預,資產價值漲跌在長期可被忽略,但短期則是外匯存底增減幅度波動的重要因素。扣除外匯存底孳息收入的自然增加,我國大幅累積外匯存底的時間並不是那麼多,只用外匯存底變動代替干預很容易高估央行的阻升金額與期間。央行連續買匯阻升的單根狀況只在1988年之前於統計上顯著,之後干預和匯率並無長期共整合關係。央行外匯買賣互現且缺乏單向持續性,2011年後市場也朝向更浮動的匯率調整。
We divide the change in Taiwan's foreign reserves into three parts: yield of the foreign reserves, intervention by the central bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan), and the value re-estimation of the foreign assets (including those from the changes of exchange rates between the US dollar and other foreign currencies). It is found that, during the period 1982-2015, 56% of the accumulation of Taiwan's foreign reserves is from its yield while 44% of it is from official intervention. Employing the change in foreign reserves as a proxy for intervention tends to overstate the degree of intervention of Taiwan's central bank. Except for the period 1982-1987 in which official intervention to prevent an appreciation of the NT dollar is apparent with a unit root process, there is no evidence the central bank intervenes to twist the trend of its exchange rate. The intervention data shows lack of persistency and is not co-integrated with the exchange rate of the NT dollar to the US dollar Since 2011, the scale of official intervention is being reduced and Taiwan's foreign exchange market is getting cleaner floating.
期刊論文
1.Lee, Hsiu-Yun、Lai, Hung-Pin(2011)。A Structural Threshold Model of the Exchange Rate under Optimal Intervention。Journal of International Money and Finance,30(6),931-946。  new window
2.吳致寧、黃惠君、汪建南、吳若瑋(20120600)。再探臺灣匯率制度。經濟論文叢刊,40(2),261-288。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.Ouyang, Alice Y.、Rajan, Ramkishen S.(2011)。Reserve accumulation and monetary sterilization in Singapore and Taiwan。Applied Economics,43(16),2015-2031。  new window
4.陳旭昇、吳聰敏(20080600)。臺灣匯率制度初探。經濟論文叢刊,36(2),147-182。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.楊雅惠、許嘉棟(20050300)。新臺幣匯率與央行干預行為。臺灣經濟預測與政策,35(2),23-41。new window  延伸查詢new window
6.Suardi, Sandy、Chang, Yuanchen(2012)。Are Changes in Foreign Exchange Reserves a Good Proxy for Official Intervention?。Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money,22(4),678-695。  new window
7.李秀雲(19940300)。由實質景氣循環理論看臺灣貿易收支的成長與波動。經濟論文叢刊,22(1),37-62。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.陳旭昇(20160600)。央行「阻升不阻貶」?--再探臺灣匯率不對稱干預政策。經濟論文叢刊,44(2),187-213。  延伸查詢new window
9.李秀雲(20140900)。開放經濟總體政策的三難困境。人文及社會科學集刊,26(3),341-385。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.Carlson, John A.、Lo, Melody(2004)。Selective Asymmetric Intervention and Sterilization。Applied Financial Economics,14(11),823-833。  new window
11.Neely, Christopher J.(2000)。Are Changes in Foreign Exchange Reserves Well Correlated with Official Intervention?。Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review,82(5),17-32。  new window
12.Liu, Christina Y.(1993)。Managed Exchange Rate Regime: The Case of the New Taiwan Dollar/U.S. Dollar。Journal of Asian Economics,4(2),407-418。  new window
13.Lee, Hsiu-Yun、Chang, Wen-Ya(2007)。Central Bank Intervention and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Rationale for the Regime-switching Process of Exchange Rates。Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,21(1),64-77。  new window
14.李秀雲(19950900)。新臺幣低估與80年代臺灣的貿易順差及外匯累積。經濟論文叢刊,23(3),285-315。  延伸查詢new window
15.王泓仁(20050300)。臺幣匯率對我國經濟金融活動之影響。中央銀行季刊,27(1),13-45。new window  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.劉憶如(1996)。中央銀行外匯市場干預行為之訊息傳遞及其政策效果 (計畫編號:NSC84-2416-H002-026)。  延伸查詢new window
單篇論文
1.Lee, Hsiu-Yun,Chang, Wen-Ya,Ho, Tai-Kuang(2009)。The De Facto Flexibility/Fixity of Exchange Rates: A Simple Intervention Measure,National Chung-Cheng University, Department of Economics。  new window
 
 
 
 
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