本文的目的是在以台灣的資料驗証Fisher效果。根據Fisher(1930)的分
析，當借貸市場上套利機會已殆盡，名目利率大約等於預期實質利率與預期物價
膨脹率之和。利用日治初期以來台灣的利率及物價資料進行分析，在預期實質利
率固定不變的假設下，實證結果發現各樣本期間之資料與 Fisher效果並不完全一
致，但是，若使用推估的預期實質利率，則本文的研究發現戰後時期的利率與物
價資料與Fisher效果並不違背。

This paper tests the Fisher hypothesis using Taiwan's long-run interest rate
and inflation rate data. According to lrving Fisher(1930), nominal interest rate should
be approximately equal tothe sum of expected real interest rate and expected inflation
rate.Most of the empirical tests using financial data of the U.S. and theU.K. find,
however, that the Fisher hypothesis generally does nothold, especially during the
pre-World War I period. Under the assumption that the expected real interest rate is
fixed, we find thatthe Fisher hypothesis does not hold in Taiwan either. From a
constructed series of expected real interest rate, however, the Fisherhypothesis is
found to be consistent with Taiwan's post-World WarII financial data.