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題名:亞洲區域金融中心的形成與變遷─香港和新加坡金融中心政策的政經分析
作者:吳鯤魯 引用關係
作者(外文):Wu, Kuen-Luu
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:政治學研究所
指導教授:蕭全政
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2001
主題關鍵詞:國家機關亞洲區域金融中心金融中心政策香港新加坡境外金融霸權穩定全球城市the stateAsian Financial CenterFinancial Center PolicyHong KongSingaporeoffshore financehegemonic stabilityworld city
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本論文從國家機關因應國際體系變遷的角度探討亞洲區域金融中心的形成與發展,並希望對區域金融中心的文獻有一開創性的貢獻。
國際金融中心的問題在經濟學裡並不受重視,總以金融市場自然形成的方向來看待,和其他市場行為的討論並無二致。在國際政治經濟學裡,霸權穩定論是主要討論架構,依循其理論脈絡,國際經濟的自由體系如同一種公共財,最容易由國際體系中佔有支配地位的單一霸權國提供。此霸權國憑藉其政經實力,穩定國際匯率制度,維持開放的國際貿易體制,霸權國因此相當程度上擔負國際金融體系最後借貸者的功能。
霸權穩定論與傳統國際金融中心的形成與變遷若合符節。自一八七三年起,在英國霸權鼎盛時代,英國的國內金融中心倫敦就以資本輸出與匯兌結算中心,穩居全球金融體系階層的頂端;當美國在第二次大戰之後正式贏得國際霸權地位後,紐約也就順勢接替倫敦,成為全世界金融體系的樞紐。
但是國際金融體系在最近三分之一個世紀的變化,特別是區域性國際金融中心的出現使既有理論遭到質疑。為分析國家機關如何促進金融中心的建立與發展,本論文認為,有必要重新定位國家機關與金融中心的關係,搭建一個整合性分析架構。
戰後國際經濟的整合脈絡分明,先是已開發國家海外貿易的擴展,接著是廠商生產活動逐漸進行多國分工,最後為應付生產資金順暢流動的需要,各國資本市場相繼解除管制以達無國界目標,從產品、製程、科技、資金以至資訊,橫跨國界的交流越來越方便迅速,也使得所有這些商品很難再用傳統標示表明是由特定國家製造的。最近廿年,科技進步帶來的全球化風潮,電信化、資訊化與金融產品創新,使各國相繼解除金融領域管制,以面對競爭壓力。國際經貿組織在以美國為主的已開發國家協力霸權主導下,也以迫使各國金融體系的開放為主要促進標的。
在這種被稱為經濟國際化或全球化的趨勢下,舉凡快速經濟發展的區域,都會相應出現區域金融中心。東亞經濟在二十世紀下半葉快速增長,成為歐美以外開發中世界的特例。順序上以日本為首,四小龍居次,東協諸國與中國大陸相繼接棒。隨著經濟的成長,地區內各國相互貿易投資迅速擴增,並帶動龐大的資金需求。七○年代前後起,新加坡及香港先後憑藉既有經濟優勢,逐步形成切合於本身政經發展目標的亞洲金融中心。
新加坡和香港各自有其形成與演變的歷史軌跡,著重的功能各有差異,在經濟事務上彼此既競爭又合作,均居於亞洲金融版圖的重點位置。七○年代初國際金融整合趨勢越來越明顯之際,兩者就先後超越貿易金融的格局,轉變為區域性國際金融中心。不過其轉型仍依國家機關發展目標,與面對的內外政經限制,而表現出不同的發展方向。
傳統的國家理論認為,國家機關自主性和國際金融的開放有所對立。「全球化」作為一個思潮,要求的是跨國界的人員、貨物、勞務、資源、資訊、資金、以至理念、形象與規則的交往流動越來越方便,國家機關降低對這類跨國交流的控制力。然而,在實存世界裡,全球化只是一種不均等的市場化過程。在此過程中,以貨幣交換為媒介、由契約加以規制的市場交易型態,逐步替代甚至摧毀以互惠義務為基礎的傳統經濟生活組織。全球化的結果,常導致受衝擊的社會不得不進行自我防衛,藉集體行動緩衝或抗爭,且經常訴諸國家機關實施相關政策,以避免市場摧毀性力量的橫行。
然則國家機關在什麼樣的情況下,會做出將金融體系向國際徹底開放,並建立國際金融中心的政策呢?檢討既存文獻,一個可能的方向是參考「危機之下的國家機關因應政策」理論。
「全球化」的確是戰後國際體系的新發展階段,當各個國民經濟體相互依存之際,任何政治經濟危機的出現都有可能形成區域性,甚至全球性的衝擊,影響所及,沒有任何國家機關可以不作出因應的對策。政策選擇必然受限於主導國家機關的政治人物資源動員,以及政治聯盟和妥協方案建構的能力。危機的出現打破常態的政經資源配置和政治聯盟,政策選項相對開放,體系處於流變狀態,直到解決危機的方案形成為止。政策付諸實施,體系再度封閉,等待下個危機帶來的開放機會。
亞洲區域性國際金融中心的形成和發展,既涉及東亞區域霸權的爭奪,也涉及國際金融體系的趨勢。一個適合分析國家機關金融中心政策的一般性架構,必須兼顧這兩個層面,才能將國家機關承受來自競爭性國家體系和世界性資本主義體系的挑戰與境遇完整呈現。
曾經成功發展國際金融中心的國家,本論文依其所處的不同位置,略分為全球霸權、區域強權,以及弱勢國家。三者因國際金融中心成立所面對的結構性機會和限制各有不同,政策目標也不盡相同。不同類型的國家機關都會盡可能善加利用本國的結構長處,以提昇本國綜合國力及在國際體系中的地位。大體而言,既存的全球霸權藉由國際金融中心,讓本國金融機構集中對國際經貿網絡發揮控制指揮功能,從而維持其於體系中既有的優勢,達到繼續主宰和領導的目標。區域強權則視本國金融體系的良窳和對外影響力之有無,決定對外開放之程度,在區域體系的金融面享有優勢的強權,通常更可能採取區域主義,和區域各國互惠合作。弱勢國家開創金融中心,在時機上通常起因於外部因素帶來的危機,惟其目標則在於將本國利益徹底國際化,以換取國際上更大的支持,繼續生存發展。
弱勢國家推動金融中心的情況比較特殊,就時機而言,弱勢國家通常是面對外來危機衝擊,受到競爭性國家體系的圈限作用,不得不進行更大幅度的對外開放。更饒富興味的是,競爭性國際體系內霸權的爭奪和轉移常常是造成國際社會劇烈變動,導致相關弱勢國家面臨外來危機的關鍵因素。這也使得全球性國際金融中心的成立,和區域性國際金融中心的成立,兩者間常有密切的關係。
此外,面對外來危機時,小國顯然比大國更為生死攸關,不能在對外政策上稍有閃失。然而正是因為這樣的對比,小國的國家機關因此更能藉由危機的放大,來轉化國內支持及反對力量,創造有利於體制改革的結盟關係。譬如新加坡在英軍宣布即將撤退後的應付危機的政策,當時就很少遭到民間社會的不滿,反對的聲音因此更容易化掉(neutralize)。
弱勢國家受限於經濟規模,一般只能建立區域金融中心,而且必須掌握特定利基,尋求突破。對小國而言,金融國際化帶入外來資金和技術資源的挹注,可增加國家經濟的動能,建立本身特定產業的優勢,這些經濟上的利益固然可貴。但是,更重要的是,小國藉由金融中心的成立,引進對區域內其他國家有所裨益的金融資源,而獲取更多的國際政治支持。換言之,將本身的安全利益徹底國際化,才是小國建立金融中心更重要的動機。
因此,綜合來看,傳統國家理論認為對國際開放金融一定和國家機關自主性相對的觀點,其實忽略了實存世界的多樣性,而失之武斷。特別是本論文著重的弱勢國家建立國際金融中心的努力,不但倣效歷史上的城邦先例,更具有對當代競爭性國家體系的特殊意涵。質言之,在當代國際社會保證任何一個準主權國家都能生存發展的前提下,小國反而可以藉由金融徹底開放,引進各個主要經濟強權的金融機構,增加本身的依違空間,甚至轉化為國家機關自主性擴大的基礎。換言之,將本身國家利益國際化,其實等於是運作另外一種只能由迷你城邦才能主導的「權力均衡」策略,在多層次的結構中,反而相對增加小國的自主性。
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