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題名：潔淨能源消費和經濟成長之研究
作者：鄒逸錚
作者(外文)：Tsou, Yi-Cheng
校院名稱：國立中正大學
系所名稱：國際經濟研究所
指導教授：黃柏農
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2013
主題關鍵詞：潔淨能源消費；二氧化碳排放；石油價格；經濟成長；門檻迴歸模型；Clean energy consumption；Carbon dioxide emission；Oil price；Economic growth；Threshold regression
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本論文由三篇文章組成。第一篇文章主要探討隨著國際原油價格不斷波動是否影響一個國家潔淨能源消費(核能消費和再生能源消費) 與所得間的關係，採用1984-2008年13個OECD國家資料。國際原油價格不斷上漲，將導致仰賴原油進口的國家生產成本提高，降低出口競爭力，進而影響其經濟發展。潔淨能源市場和石油價格間存在密切關係，隨著國際原油價格不斷高漲，潔淨能源的替代性就顯為重要。因此，我們建構考慮石油價格、核能消費、再生能源消費與所得的多變量模型，觀察考慮石油價格波動，核能消費與再生能源消費和一個國家所得間的關係。實證結果發現，芬蘭、德國和英國的核能消費在其經濟發展過程中扮演極為重要的角色，即核能消費對這些國家的所得有正向顯著的影響。在再生能源和所得之間的關係中，我們則發現加拿大和芬蘭的再生能源消費對所得的影響為正向。反之，南韓和美國則隨著所得不斷地增加，會增加再生能源的使用，英國的再生能源消費和所得之間則存在相互影響關係。除此之外，我們更進一步探討在這13個國家中，石油、核能與再生能源這三種能源的替代與互補關係。我們發現，在高油價的時代，日本、南韓與英國，會增加核能的使用來取代石油，即核能與石油之間為相互替代關係。而隨著油價不斷高漲，加拿大則會使用再生能源來替代對石油的需求。
第二篇文章主要探討潔淨能源使用的有效性，潔淨能源除了可以穩定的供應一個國家在經濟發展中所需要的能源需求，其最大的好處即在於其扮演著解決環境問題的萬靈丹。因此，我們在潔淨能源消費與非潔淨能源消費模型中加入二氧化碳排放變數，觀察哪些國家在潔淨能源的使用上已經到達有效降低二氧化碳排放的程度，以作為目前仍仰賴化石燃料使用的國家在能源政策朝向穩定能源供應及”減排”上的參考。實證結果顯示，羅馬尼亞、南非、喬治亞及莫三比克這4個國家潔淨能源的使用已經到達有效降低二氧化碳排放的程度。
能源是一切經濟活動的原動力，過去世界各國皆仰頼傳統化石燃料作為經濟發展的動能，但隨著能源短缺和環境議題日益被重視，各國便開始積極尋找替代能源以減緩全球暖化及確保穩定能源供應，以因應未來經濟發展所需的能源需求。潔淨能源便成為傳統化石燃料的最佳替代能源。第三篇文章我們運用門檻迴歸模型重估潔淨能源消費與經濟成長間關係。實證結果發現，潔淨能源消費對經濟成長是否有顯著的影響，取決於潔淨能源使用的比例。採用98個國家橫斷面資料，發現潔淨能源要取代傳統化石燃料成為經濟成長的動能，潔淨能源使用的比重必須滿特定的「門檻」水準。實證結果顯示只有當潔淨能源使用的比重超過80.26%時，對成長的效果才會出現。
This dissertation is composed of three articles. The first article used the Granger non-causality test developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) to examine the relationship between nuclear energy consumption, renewable energy consumption and income after considering the fluctuant oil price in 13 OECD countries for the period 1984 to 2008. The oil prices on international markets have been fluctuating. This led to increasing costs in production and decreasing their competitive edge in export in countries which were highly dependent on imported energy. Clean energy (including nuclear energy and renewable energy) reduces the instability of oil prices, lessens the dependence on oil imports. The clean energy market is closely related to oil prices. When the oil price increases, the substitute for oil, clean energy is being focused. Therefore, we consider a multivariate model of nuclear energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, oil price, and income, which allows an additional channel of causality to be examined and analyzes whether a substitute or complementary relationship between nuclear energy consumption and oil as well as renewable energy and oil exists.
The results indicated positive impact of nuclear energy consumption on income in Finland, Germany, and United Kingdom, which meant that nuclear energy consumption played a crucial role in the growth process in these countries. In the area of renewable energy consumption, we discovered positive causality from renewable energy consumption to income in Canada and Finland, whereas the opposite causality from income to renewable energy consumption was showed in South Korea and U.S., and a bidirectional relationship was detected in United Kingdom. Furthermore, we also discovered substitutability between renewable energy and oil in Canada while the substitutability between nuclear energy and oil was detected in Japan, South Korea, and United Kingdom.
In the second article, we defined the variable of clean energy, which comprised the nuclear energy and renewable energy, and discussed the causal relationship between clean energy and non-clean energy consumption and income after considering the carbon dioxide emission. The main concept was that we wanted to explain the effectiveness of clean energy. In this study, we understood not only what the relationship is between clean energy consumption, non-clean energy consumption and income but also whether the clean energy consumption could efficiently reduce the carbon dioxide emission. The result indicated that in mid income countries, clean and non-clean energy consumption played a more significant role in economic development than in high and low income countries. 4 countries’ developments of clean energy (Romania, South Africa, Georgia, and Mozambique) have already reached to the level that could reduce the carbon dioxide emission. In addition, in the relationship between different income levels and carbon dioxide emission, we discovered that 4 countries (Israel, Poland, China, and Haiti) would support the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis.
The third article aimed at investigating the link between clean energy consumption and economic growth by applying a new econometric methodology. We used the threshold regression test developed by Hansen (2000) in order to capture a nonlinear effect of the ratio of clean energy consumption to total electricity consumption (CEP) on economic growth. The results indicated when a country’s clean energy consumption was more than 80.26% of the total electricity consumption, the clean energy consumption could spur economic growth. This relationship existed in 15 countries and this 15 countries’ proportion of clean energy consumption average was about 91.81%. On the other hand, when the proportion of clean energy consumption in our regime was equal to or lower than 80.26%, in spite of the increase of clean energy consumption, there was no effect on economic growth which supported the neutrality hypothesis. However, we further split cross sectional data for 98 countries up into different income levels. The results showed that no matter whether a country’s CEP was higher or lower than the threshold value, 13.32%, the positive relationship between clean energy consumption and economic growth was being there in high income countries. On the contrary, in the mid income countries, only those whose CEP were higher than 79.80%, the clean energy played a major role in economic growth process.
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