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題名:動態政策環境中的決策輔助--標竿學習的實驗研究
書刊名:行政暨政策學報
作者:蕭乃沂 引用關係
作者(外文):Hsiao, Naiyi
出版日期:2001
卷期:3
頁次:頁213-263
主題關鍵詞:政策分析動態決策決策輔助決策支援系統動力學成果回饋Policy analysisDynamic decision makingDecision aidsDecision supportSystem dynamicsOutcome feedback
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:24
  • 點閱點閱:20
  許多公共議題的政策擬定、執行、評估、與修正本質上是一個典型的動態決策環境,有限理性的公共管理者的職能即在此動態政策環境中制定決策。據此,本研究提出一理論模型以作為設計動態政策環境下決策輔助的基礎,在一個電腦模擬的實驗中,本研究將於兩個不同的動態複雜度下驗證三個作為決策輔助的成果回饋。   實驗結果顯示:具備標竿成果回饋資訊的受測者在績效及學習方面均優於只有一般成果回饋的受測者;但是當同時提供標竿成果及標竿決策時,反而對受測者在續效及學習兩方面皆有不良影響甚至劣於只有一般成果回饋的受測者,透過分析所提出的理論模型中的因徑後發現,此不良影響主要經由受測者選擇資訊陳列格式的行為而發生作用。此研究發現除了提供關於標竿學習的進一步實證外,對建立政策實驗室也具有實質的貢獻。
  Public policy-making can be well approached as human decision-making behavior striving to manage complex dynamic tasks. Particularly, various governmental programs require public officials make decisions on a regular basis with the next decisions depending on the outcome of previous decisions. This study proposes alternative designs of outcome feedback and hypothesizes that they help decision-makers manage dynamic decision tasks more effectively. A process model describing how the relevant components of dynamic decision-making behavior - task difficulty, information display, task knowledge and task performance - interact with one another is also theoretically proposed and empirically examined.   The empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that providing benchmark outcome improves task performance. Path analyses show that the improvement comes from improving the anchoring and adjustment heuristics the subjects used. The findings contribute to how decision support may be designed to aid decision-making in complex dynamic systems in general and public policy-making laboratory in particular public policy-making laboratory in particular.
期刊論文
1.Berry, D. C.、Broadbent, D. E.(1984)。On the Relationship between Task Performance and Associated Verbalized Knowledge。The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology,36,209-231。  new window
2.Brehmer, B.、Domer, D.(1993)。Experiments with Computer-Simulated Microworlds: Escaping Both the Narrow Straits of the Laboratory and the Deep Blue Sea of the Field Study。Computers in Human Behavior,9,171-184。  new window
3.Howie, E.、Sy, S.、Ford, L.、Vicente, K. J.(2000)。Human-computer Interface Design Can Reduce Misperceptions of Feedback。System Dynamics Review,16(3),151-171。  new window
4.楊仁壽(19980100)。動態決策環境中時間滯延的效果。管理評論,17(1),83-106。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.楊仁壽(20000300)。動態複雜任務中挑戰性標的與短期標的的效果。管理學報,17(1),43-69。new window  延伸查詢new window
6.韓釗(20000300)。面對動態性複雜系統:二十一世紀政府必須具備的能力。思與言,38(1),123-146。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.Edwards, W.(1962)。Dynamic Decision Theory and Probabilistic Information Processing。Human Factors,4,59-73。  new window
8.Hammond, K. R.、Summers, D. A.、Deane, D. H.(1973)。Negative Effects of Outcome Feedback in Multiple-Cue Probability Learning。Organizational Behavior and Human Performance,9,30-34。  new window
9.Sanderson, P. M.(1989)。Verbalizable Knowledge and Skilled Task Performance: Association, Dissociation, and Mental Model。Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning Memory and Cognition,15,729-747。  new window
10.Sterman, J. D.(1989)。Modeling managerial behavior: misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision-making environment。Management Science,35(3),321-399。  new window
11.王思峰(19940900)。動態複雜案例之處方性實驗研究--管理學習實驗室、系統思考、績效與學習不對稱。中山管理評論,2(3),93-118。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.侯漢君(19980800)。系統動態的決策模式:以土地規劃為例。行政學報,29,151-212。new window  延伸查詢new window
會議論文
1.Hsiao, N.、Richardson, G. P.(1999)。In Search of Theories of Dynamic Decision Making: A Literature Review。The International System Dynamics Conference。Quebec。  new window
2.Sastry, M. A.、Sterman, J. D.(1993)。Desert Island Dynamics: An Annotated Survey of the Essential System Dynamics Literature。The International System Dynamics Conference。Cancun。  new window
圖書
1.Roberts, N.、Andersen, D. F.、Deal, R. M.、Grant, M. S.、Shaffer, W. A.(1983)。Introduction to Computer Simulation: A System Dynamics Modeling Approach。Addison-Wesley。  new window
2.Ventana Systems Inc(1992)。VENSIM [Feedback system simulation program]。Harvard MA:Ventanna Systems, Inc。  new window
3.Ventana Systems Inc(1995)。VENSIM Reference Manual。Harvard MA:Ventanna Systems, Inc.。  new window
4.Senge, Peter M.、郭進隆(1995)。第五項修練:學習型組織的藝術與實務。臺北:天下。  延伸查詢new window
5.Keehley, P.、Medlin, S.、MacBride, S.、Longmire, L.(1997)。Benchmarking for Best Practices in the Public Sector。San Francisco:Jossey-Bass Publishers。  new window
6.Richardson, George P.、Pugh, Alexander L. III(1981)。Introduction to System Dynamics Modeling with DYNAMO。Productivity Press。  new window
7.Sterman, John D.(2000)。Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World。Irwin McGraw-Hill。  new window
8.陶在樸(1999)。系統動態學。臺北:五南出版社。  延伸查詢new window
9.謝長宏(1987)。系統動態學:理論、方法與應用。中興管理顧問。  延伸查詢new window
其他
1.Hsiao, N.(2000)。Exploration of Outcome Feedback for Dynamic Decision Making,Department of Public Administration and Policy, Albany, State University of New York at Albany。,http://cc.shu.edu.tw/-ppm/teacher9.html, 2001/03。  new window
圖書論文
1.Klayman, J.(1988)。On How and Why (Not) of Learning from Outcomes。Human Judgment: The SJT View。North-Holland。  new window
2.Meadows, Donella H.(1980)。The unavoidable a priori。Elements of the System Dynamics Method。Waltham, MA:Cambridge MA:Pegasus Communications:Productivity Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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