The Impact of Terrorist Attacks for Leisure Destination Choice on R.O.C. Outbound Travelers: The Case of September 11 Event_

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題名：	The Impact of Terrorist Attacks for Leisure Destination Choice on R.O.C. Outbound Travelers: The Case of September 11 Event
書刊名：	醒吾學報
作者：	閔辰華
作者(外文)：	Min, Jennifer C. H.
出版日期：	2004
卷期：	27
頁次：	頁37-55
主題關鍵詞：	911恐佈攻擊；第二次世界大戰；旅遊地點；恢復狀況；旅遊行為；September 11 terrorist attacks；World war Ⅱ；Leisure destination；Recovery status；Tourist behavior
原始連結：	連回原系統網址
相關次數：	被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0) 排除自我引用:0 共同引用:1 點閱:18

本研考之研究目的乃是自第二次世界大戰以來，人類最大災難—911恐怖攻擊後，查驗國人在出國旅遊地點選擇上，受此災難事故之影響狀況。本研究選擇佔國人出國旅遊市場四分之三的香港、澳門、日本、美國和泰國等市場為例，研究以上旅遊市場在911恐怖攻擊後，國人出國旅遊地點選擇上的恢復狀況。研究發現：自911事件後的三個月，美國市場恢復最為緩慢，而日本市場恢復狀況超越各個市場。研究結果，實際反映一件真實災難事件後，國人在旅遊地點上之旅遊行為實際變化情形。

以文找文

The purpose of this study was to evaluate how the disastrous September 11 terrorist attacks had affected Taiwanese outbound tourists for leisure destination choice, a more dramatic impact than any crisis since World War Ⅱ. This research selected Hong Kong, Macao, Japan, US, and Thailand markets which had traditionally dominated the outbound market of the island, with more than three-quarter share, as study objectives to evaluate recovery status since the September 11 crisis. The results indicated that the US market dropped severely during the first three months after the catastrophe, whereas the Japanese market seemed to have with stood the crisis much better or even benefited from it. The results will likely shed more light on how the tourist behaviors are influenced by a real-life hazard.

以文找文

期刊論文
1.	Huang, Jen-Hung、Min, Jennifer C. H.(2002)。Earthquake devastation and recovery in tourism: the Taiwan case。Tourism Management，23(2)，145-154。
2.	Mansfeld, Y.(1999)。Cycles of war, terror, and peace: determinants and management of crisis and recovery of the Israeli tourism industry。Journal of Travel Research，38(1)，30-36。
3.	Cho, V.(2003)。A Comparison of Three Different Approaches to Tourist Arrival Forecasting。Tourism Management，24(3)，323-330。
4.	Lim, C.、McAleer, M.(2002)。Time series forecasts of international travel demand for Australia。Tourism Management，23(4)，389-396。
5.	Dimanche, F.、Lepetic, A.(1999)。New Orleans tourism and crime: A case study。Journal of Travel Research，38(1)，19-23。
6.	Faulkner, Bill(2001)。Towards a Framework for Tourism Disaster Management。Tourism Management，22(2)，135-147。
7.	Ioannides, D.、Apostolopoulos, Y.(1999)。Political instability, war, and tourism in Cyprus: Effects, management, and prospects for recovery。Journal of Travel Research，38(1)，51-56。
8.	Turner, L. W.、Kulendran, N.、Pergat, V.(1995)。Forecasting New Zealand tourism demand with disaggregated data。Tourism Economics，1(1)，51-69。
9.	Chan, Y. M.(1993)。Forecasting tourism: A sine wave time series regression approach。Journal of Travel Research，32(2)，58-60。
10.	Coshall, J.(2000)。Spectral analysis of international tourism flows。Annals of Tourism Research，27(3)，577-589。
11.	Huang, Chun-Te、Yung, Chi Yeh、Huang, Jen-Hung(1996)。Trends in outbound tourism from Taiwan。Tourism Management，17(3)，223-228。
12.	Richter, L. K.(1999)。After political turmoil; The lessons of rebuilding tourism in three Asian countries。journal of Travel Research，38(1)，41-45。
13.	Mi, J. C. M.(2001)。Forecast of Taiwanese outbound departures--A Seasonal ARIMA approach。醒吾學報，24，505-540。
14.	Yau, Oliver H. M.、Chan, C. F.(1990)。Hong Kong as a travel destination in South-east Asia: a multidimensional approach。Tourism Management，11(2)，123-132。
15.	Athiyaman, A.、Robertson, R. W.(1992)。Time series forecasting techniques: short-term planning in tourism。International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management，4(4)，8-11。
16.	Sheldon, P. J.(1993)。Forecasting tourism: Expenditures versus arrivals。Journal of Travel Research，32(1)，13-20。
17.	Heung, V. C. S.、Qu, H.、Chu, R.(2001)。The Relationship Between Vacation Factors and Socio-demographic and Traveling Characteristics: The Case of Japanese Leisure Travelers。Tourism Management，22(3)，259-269。
18.	Law, R.(2000)。Back-propagation learning in improving the accuracy of neural network-based tourism demand forecasting。Tourism management，21(4)，331-340。
19.	Burger, C. J. S. C.、Dohnal, M.、Kathrada, M.、Law, R.(2001)。A practitioners guide to time-series methods for tourism demand forecasting: a case study of Durban, South Africa。Tourism Management，22(4)，403-409。
20.	Goodrich, J. N.(2002)。September 11, 2001 attack on America: a record of the immediate impacts and reactions in the USA travel and tourism industry。Tourism Management，23(6)，573-580。
21.	Lai, L. H.、Graefe, A. R.(2000)。Identifying market potential and destination choice factors of Taiwanese overseas travelers。Journal of Hospitality & Leisure Marketing，6(4)，45-65。
22.	閔辰華(20030300)。The Effect of Taiwan Travelers on Hong Kong Tourism: A Forecast and an Examination of Possible Impact from Direct Links between Taiwan and Mainland China。產業論壇，5(1)，21-46。
23.	Hillmer, S. C.、Tiao, G. C.(1979)。Likelihood Function of Stationary Multiple Autoregressive Moving Average Models。Journal of the American Statistical Association，74(367)，652-660。
24.	Witt, S. F.、Witt, Christine A.(1995)。Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research。International Journal of Forecasting，11(3)，447-475。
25.	Box, G. E. P.、Tiao, G. C.(1975)。Intervention analysis with applications to economic and environmental problems。Journal of the American Statistical Association，70(349)，70-79。
26.	Sönmez, S. F.、Apostolopoulos, Y.、Tarlow, P.(1999)。Tourism in Crisis: Managing the Effects of Terrorism。Journal of Travel Research，38(1)，13-18。
27.	Kulendran, N.、Witt, S. F.(2003)。Forecasting the demand for international business tourism。Journal of Travel Research，41(3)，265-271。

會議論文
1.	Hara, T.、Saltzman, S.(2003)。The economic impacts of terrorism: An alternative method to quantify the effects on the New York City economy of the 9/11 attack on the WorId Trade Center。the meeting of 8th Annual Graduate Conference。Las Vegas, NA。

圖書
1.	Pankratzj, A.(1983)。Forecasting with univariate Box-Jenkins models: Concepts and cases。New York：John Wiley。
2.	Scientific Computing Associates(1986)。Reference manual for forecasting and time series analysis。Chicago：SCA。
3.	Tourism Bureau(1988)。1988-2002 annual report on tourism。Taipei：Tourism Bureau。
4.	Box, G. E. P.、Jenkins, G. M.、Reinsel, G. C.(1976)。Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control。San Francisco：Holden-Day。

其他
1.	World Tourism Organization(2002)。Tourism proves as a resilient and stable economic sector，Madrid。，http://www.world-tourism.org， 2002/06/18。
2.	World Tourism Organization(2002)。Tourism Highlights 2002，http://www.world-tourism.org。

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