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題名：制度化對中共菁英甄補之影響：評估十七大政治局的新人選
書刊名：東亞研究
作者：寇健文 引用關係／黃霈芝／潘敏
作者(外文)：Kou, Chien-wen／Huang, Pei-shih／Pan, Ming
出版日期：2006
卷期：37:2
頁次：頁1-38
主題關鍵詞：制度化；政治局；中共；菁英甄補；Institutionalization；Politburo；Chinese communist party；Elite rescruitment
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(4) 博士論文(3) 專書(1) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:45
  • 點閱點閱:47
近幾年以來，許多學者指出中共菁英甄補逐漸受到制度因素的影響。綜合學者對於制度因素的討論後，本文得出三個必要條件與五個充分條件，用以評估2007年十七大時最可能首度進入政治局的人選。本文使用的三個必要條件是「現任（十六屆）中央委員或是候補中央委員」、「現任正省部級幹部，2007年時已經歷練同級職務達五年以上」、「2007年十七大時年齡必須低於六十四歲（含六十四歲）」。五個充分條件則是「相對年齡優勢」、「最佳年齡優勢」、「地方歷練」、「交流經驗」、「財經管理經驗」。分析結果發現李克強、王岐山、李源潮、習近平、韓正、薄熙來六人最具競爭優勢。另一位具有競爭優勢的楊傳堂因健康出現嚴重問題，已經喪失進入第五代領導班子的機會。不過，本文未考量非制度性因素對中共菁英甄補的影響，勢必降低評估的信度。同時，某些制度性因素無法取得相關訊息（健康狀況），或是目前尚未操作化（政績），導致它們無法納入考量，皆會增加誤差範圍。這些都是未來研究必須突破的地方。
In the past several years, scholars have emphasized on the increasing importance of institutional factors in China’s elite recruitment. According to the existing literature, this paper derives three necessary conditions and five sufficient conditions as the criteria to evaluate who among China’s top elite would most likely be selected as the new members of CCP’s Politburo in 2007. The three necessary conditions discussed here are: (1) incumbent members (or alternate members) of the 16th CCP Central Committee; (2) incumbent leading cadres with the experience at the full-ministerial level for at least 5 years; and (3) cadres under the age of 64 in the year of 2007. The five sufficient conditions are: (1) relative age advantage; (2) best age advantage; (3) the experience of leading a province; (4) the experience of working in different provinces or in the central and local governments; and (5) the knowledge background in economics and management. Based on these criteria, this paper chooses seven frontrunners—they are Li Keqiang, Wang Qishan, Li Yuanchao, Xi Jinping, Han Zheng, Bo Xilai and Yang Chuantang. Among them, Yang first lost his competitive advantage several months ago because of serious illness. This paper doesn’t take non-institutional factors such as factional affiliation into account. In addition, it excludes some institutional factions that either have no information available (such as cadres’ health conditions), or have not been operationalized (such as cadres’ performance). These insufficiencies will affect the reliability of the conclusion of this paper to a certain degree. Further researches should aim at overcoming these weaknesses.
期刊論文
1.Tsou, Tang(197603)。Prolegomenon to the Study of Informal Group in CCP Politics。The China Quarterly，65，98-119。  new window
2.Zheng, Yongnian、Fook, Lye Liang(2003)。Elite Politics and the Fourth Generation of Chinese Leadership。Journal of Chinese Political Science，8(1/2)，65-86。  new window
3.Tsou, Tang(1995)。Chinese Politics at the Top: Factionalism or Informal Politics? Balance-of-power or a Game of Win All?。China Journal，34，95-156。  new window
4.Li, Wei、Pye, Lucian W.(19921200)。The Ubiquitous Role of the Mishu in Chinese Politics。China Quarterly，132，913-936。  new window
5.Bachma, David(2001)。The Paradox or Analyzing Elite Politics under Jiang。China Journal，45，95-100。  new window
6.Bo, Zhiyue(200405)。The Provinces: Training Ground for National Leader or a Power in Their Own Right?。Journal of Contemporary China，13，223-256。  new window
7.Dittme, Lowell(1978)。Bases of Power in China: A Theory and Analysis of the Fall of the 'Gang of Four。World Politics，31(1)，26-60。  new window
8.Li, Cheng(2001)。China’s Political Succession: Four Myths in the U.S.。Foreign Policy in Focus。  new window
9.Li, Cheng(2002)。After Hu, Who? - China’s Provincial Leaders Await Promotion。China Leadership Monitor，1，1-14。  new window
10.Li, Cheng(2003)。A Landslide Victory for Provincial Leaders。China Leadership Monitor，5，69-83。  new window
11.Marsh, Christopher(200309)。Learning from your Comrade’s Mistake: The Impact of the Soviet Past on China’s Future。Communist and Post-Communist Studies，36(3)，259-272。  new window
12.Bullard, Monte Ray(1979)。People’s Republic of China Elite Studies: A Review of the Literature。Asian Survey，19(8)，789-800。  new window
13.Dittmer, Lowell(2001)。The Changing Shape of Elite Power Politics。The China Journal，45，53-67。  new window
14.Fewsmith, Joseph(2003)。The Sixteenth National Party Congress: The Succession that Didn’t Happen。China Quarterly，173，1-16。  new window
15.Li, Cheng(199407)。University Networks and the Rise of Qinghua Graduates in China's Leadership。The Australian Journal of Chinese Affairs，32，1-30。  new window
16.Tanner, Murray Scot、Feder, Michael J.(1993)。Family Politics, Elite Recruitment, and Succession in Post-Mao China。Australian Journal of Chinese Affairs，30，89-119。  new window
17.寇健文(20010500)。中共「幹部年輕化」與政治繼承。中國大陸研究，44(5)，1-17。new window  延伸查詢new window
18.臧小偉(20050300)。Institutionalization and Elite Behavior in Reform China。Issues & Studies，41(1)，204-217。new window  new window
19.鄭世平(20050300)。The New Era in Chinese Elite Politics。Issues & Studies，41(1)，190-203。new window  new window
20.Shambaugh, David(2001)。The Dynamics of Elite Politics During the Jiang Era。The China Journal，45，101-111。  new window
21.Shirk, Susan L.(2001)。Will the Institutionalization of Party Leadership Survive the 2002-03 Succession?。The China Journal，45，139-142。  new window
22.Goldstein, Avery(1994)。Trends in the Study of Political Elites and Institutions in the PRC。The China Quarterly，139，714-730。  new window
23.Dittmer, Lowell(1995)。Chinese Informal Politics。The China Journal，34(1)，1-34。  new window
24.王嘉州(20040300)。中共「十六大」後的中央與地方關係--政治利益分配模式之分析。東吳政治學報，18，157-185。new window  延伸查詢new window
25.Harding, Harry(1984)。The Study of Chinese Politics: Toward a Third Generation of Scholarship。World Politics，36(2)，281-307。  new window
26.Nathan, Andrew J.(1973)。A Factionalism Model for CCP Politics。The China Quarterly，53(1)，33-66。  new window
27.Dittmer, Lowell、Wu, Yu-Shan(1995)。The Modernization of Factionalism in Chinese Politics。World Politics，47(4)，467-494。  new window
28.Nathan, Andrew James(2003)。China's Changing of the Guard: Authoritarian Resilience。Journal of Democracy，14(1)，6-17。  new window
29.寇健文(19991200)。共黨統治下的大規模反抗運動與共黨的預防策略--理論探討。問題與研究，38(12)，55-72。new window  延伸查詢new window
30.薄智躍(20050300)。Political Succession and Elite Politics in Twenty-First Century China: Toward a Perspective of “Power Balancing”。Issues & Studies，41(1)，162-189。new window  new window
31.Dittmer, Lowell(19960900)。Approaches to the Study of Chinese Politics。Issues & Studies，32(9)，1-18。new window  new window
圖書
1.Pye, Lucian W.(1968)。The Spirit of Chinese Politics。Cambridge：MIT Press。  new window
2.Dittmer, Lowell、Fukui, Haruhiro、Lee, Peter N. S.(2000)。Informal Politics in East Asia。Cambridge University Press。  new window
3.Chu, Yunhan、Lo, Chihcheng、Myers, Ramon H.(2004)。The New Chinese Leadership: Challenges and Opportunities after the 16th Party Congress。Cambridge University Press。  new window
4.Lampton, David M.(2001)。The Making of a Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform。California：Stanford University Press。  new window
5.Li, Cheng(2001)。China's Leaders: The New Generation。Lanham, Maryland：Rowman and Littlefield Publishers。  new window
6.MacFarquha, Roderick、Fairbank, John K.(1987)。Cambridge History of China。New York：Cambridge University Press。  new window
7.Unger, Jonathan(2002)。The Nature of Chinese Politics: From Mao to Jiang。New York：M. E. Sharpe。  new window
8.Wong, John、Yongnian, Zeng(2003)。China’s Post-Jiang Leadership Succession: Problems and Perspectives。Singapore：River Edge, NJ：Singapore University Press：World Scientific。  new window
9.李英明(1996)。中共研究方法論。臺北：揚智出版社。  延伸查詢new window
10.寇健文(2005)。中共菁英政治的演變：制度化與權力轉移1978-2004。臺北：五南圖書股份有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
11.Bo, Zhiyue(2002)。Chinese Provincial Leaders: Economic Performance and Political Mobility Since 1949。M. E. Sharpe, Inc.。  new window
12.Shambaugh, David L.(1993)。American Studies of Contemporary China。Woodrow Wilson Center Press。  new window
13.Zang, Xiaowei(2004)。Elite Dualism and Leadership Selection in China。Routledge：Curzon。  new window
其他
1.(20010927)。文匯報，香港。  延伸查詢new window
2.(20021107)。聯合報。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.陳婕、李秀山(2002)。回顧美國中國研究的典範。華人社會政治學本土化研究的理論與實踐。臺北：桂冠圖書公司。  延伸查詢new window
2.寇健文(2002)。權力轉移與『梯隊接班』機制的發展。胡錦濤時代的挑戰。台北：新新聞文化事業公司。  延伸查詢new window
3.劉平鄰(2000)。美國學者對中共政治的研究。通向二十一世紀的政治學。台北：中國政治學會。  延伸查詢new window
4.Finkelstein, David M.、Kivlehan, Maryanne(2003)。China’s Leadership in the 21st Century: The Rise of the Fourth Generation。New York：M. E. Sharpe。  new window
5.Teiwes, Frederick C.(1995)。The Paradoxical Post-Mao Transition: From Obeying the Leader to。In The Nature of Chinese Politics: From Mao to Jiang。Armonk, N.Y.：M. E. Sharpe。  new window
 
 
 
 
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