摘要 本研究從年齡、學經歷等各項指標，分析中共第十七屆中央候補委員的 政治潛力。本研究認為，當中共政治菁英甄補的過程更加制度化，對於中共 未來政治走向的觀察，應該延伸到對中央候補委員的分析。這些今日的候補 委員，有很多人是明日政壇的閃亮之星。因此，透過系統性地觀察與統計分 析，有助於解讀中共領導人政治甄補路徑、偏好與趨勢。

Abstract In this paper, we employ factors such as age, education, faction, political career, and symbolic indicators to predict the probability of alternate members being recruited to the 18 th CCP central committee. As the CCP elite recruitment has becomemore institutionalized, we should pay more attention on the 17 th alternate members of the CCP Central Committee who might have potentials to join the power circle in the future. Therefore, we observe and analyze these alternative members systematically, and this study intends to shed some lights on interpreting the preferences and tendencies of politicalelite recruitment in China.