自1980 年代開始，中共軍文關係逐漸從「雙重角色菁英」轉變為「中共領導下的專業化軍人」，專業化和制度化對將領晉升的影響也日益升高。這個發展使得高級將領的晉升流動較過去更為穩定，更具有可預測性。非正式關係依然重要，但需要在合乎制度規範與專業素質的框架下 發揮影響。本文歸納1987 年以後25 位軍職軍委副主席和軍委員的軍旅歷程後，指出已經出現的甄補特徵包括中委會資歷、年齡限制、職務歷練與專業分工、軍銜資歷等。本文同時將這些特徵分類為基本條件和加分條件，進而篩選出23 位可能在2012 年十八大連任或新任軍委成員的將領。

Abstract Since the 1980s, civil-military relations in China have transitioned from “dual role elites” to “professional soldiers under the leadership of the communist party.” During this process, institutionalization and professionalism have thereby become increasingly important in determining the upwardmobility of military officers. Informal politics remains important but must conform to institutional procedures and professionalism. This development makes the recruitment pattern of senior officers more stable and more predictable. After analyzing the career development of 25 former and incumbent vice-chairmen and members of the China’s Central Military Commission (CMC) after 1987, this paper indicates several attributes in their upward-mobility including the CCP Central Committee membership, age limits, working experiences and specialties, and military ranks. After classifying these recruitment attributes into necessary requirements and competitive advantages, this paper further filters out 23 officers who are likely to be elected as the CMC vice-chairmen or members in the coming 18th Party Congress in 2012.