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來源文獻資料
摘要
外文摘要
引文資料
題名:
選舉預測市場之選前鑑別模型:以最高價準則為門檻
書刊名:
東吳政治學報
作者:
林鴻文
/
童振源
/
葉家興
作者(外文):
Lin, Hung-wen
/
Tung, Chen-yuan
/
Yeh, Jason
出版日期:
2014
卷期:
32:2
頁次:
頁117-171
主題關鍵詞:
臺灣選舉預測
;
選舉預測市場
;
鑑別模型
;
預測準確率
;
邊際交易者
;
Election predictions in Taiwan
;
Election prediction markets
;
Discrimination model
;
Prediction accuracy
;
Marginal trader
原始連結:
連回原系統網址
相關次數:
被引用次數:期刊(
2
) 博士論文(0) 專書(
1
) 專書論文(0)
排除自我引用:
2
共同引用:
14
點閱:15
根據預測市場(prediction market)的文獻,預測選舉已有良好預測準確率,但該準確率是事後的、總體的,而非更有實際價值的事前、個別選舉合約預測的鑒別準確率。本文建構四個鑑別選舉預測市場準確度的模型,在選前針對每個選舉合約的預測準確度進行鑑別。根據預測市場在選前一天提供選舉合約的40個原始變數資訊,Logit模型最能精準判斷那些選舉合約會符合最高價準則的準確預測合約。本文以「2008年總統選舉」、「2009年縣市長選舉」及「2010年五都市長選舉」做為樣本外測試的樣本,使用原始變數的Logit模型之預測力均高於其他模型。Logit模型的樣本外鑑別正確準確率均為100%,但是,Logit模型對於鑑別未正確預測組的預測能力仍須改善。
以文找文
According to the literature, election prediction markets have excellent accuracy rates of prediction. However, one can only acknowledge the prediction results after the elections and cannot discriminate the accuracy rates of particular election predictions prior to the elections. This paper constructs four models to discriminate the accuracy rate of each election contract prior to the election. According to the information of forty original variables collected from the election contracts in the prediction markets, the Logit model can precisely discriminate which election contracts with the highest price criteria of predictions will be likely correct. In addition to the complete sample model, this paper uses election contracts of the 2008 presidential election, the 2009 magistrate and mayoral elections, and the 2010 five-metropolis mayoral elections as out-of-sample tests. In terms of prediction accuracy, the Logit model using forty original variables is the best among the four discrimination models. The accuracy rates of discrimination of the Logit model for correct predictions are all 100%. Nevertheless, the Logit model's prediction ability for discriminating incorrect prediction groups needs to be improved.
以文找文
期刊論文
1.
童振源、周子全、林繼文、林馨怡(20110900)。選舉結果機率之分析--以2006年與2008年臺灣選舉為例。臺灣民主,8(3),135-159。
延伸查詢
2.
Agrawal(2010)。Equilibrium in Prediction Markets with Buyers and Sellers。Economics Letters,109(1),46-49。
3.
Berg, Joyce(2008)。Prediction Market Accuracy in the Long Run。International Journal of Forecasting,24(2),285-300。
4.
Carvalho, M. C. M.(1998)。Forecasting Travel Demand: A Comparison of Logit and Artificial Neural Network Methods。Journal of the Operational Research Society,49(7),717-722。
5.
Deck, Cary(2013)。Affecting Policy by Manipulating Prediction Markets: Experimental Evidence。Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,85(1),48-62。
6.
Gruca, Thomas S.、Berg, Joyce E.、Cipriano, Michael(2005)。Consensus and Differences of Opinion in Electronic Prediction Markets。Electronic Markets,15(1),13-22。
7.
Ho, Teck-hua、Chen, Kay-yut(2007)。New Product Blockbusters: The Magic and Science of Prediction Markets。California Management Review,50(1),144-158。
8.
Hwang, Dar-Yeh(1997)。Forecasting Bank Failures and Deposit Insurance Premium。International Review of Economics and Finance,6(3),317-334。
9.
Kou, S. G.、Sobel, Michael E.(2004)。Forecasting the Vote: A Theoretical Comparison of Election Markets and Public Opinion Polls。Political Analysis,12(3),277-295。
10.
Mitchneck, Beth(1995)。An Assessment of the Growing Local Economic Development Function of Local Authorities in Russia。Economic Geography,71(2),150-170。
11.
Mitra, Devashish(2002)。Protection for Sale in a Developing Country: Democracy vs. Dictatorship。Review of Economics and Statistics,84(3),497-508。
12.
Næs, Tormod、Mevik, Bjørn-Helge(2001)。Understanding the Collinearity Problem in Regression and Discriminant Analysis。Journal of Chemometrics,15,413-426。
13.
Pennock, David M.(2001)。The Real Power of Artificial Markets。Science,291(5506),987-988。
14.
Spann, Martin、Skiera, Bernd(2003)。Internet-based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting。Management Science,49,1310-1326。
15.
Tung, Chen-yuan(2011)。Comparing the Forecasting Accuracy of Prediction Markets and Polls for Taiwan’s Presidential and Mayoral Elections。Journal of Prediction Markets,5(3),1-26。
16.
Servan-Schreiber, Emile、Wolfers, J.、Pennock, D. M.、Galebach, B.(2004)。Prediction markets: Does money matter?。Electronic Markets,14(3),243-251。
17.
West, Robert Craig(1985)。A Factor-Analytic Approach to Bank Condition。Journal of Banking and Finance,9(2),253-266。
18.
Smith, Vernon L.(1982)。Microeconomic Systems as an Experimental Science。American Economic Review,72(5),923-955。
19.
Oliven, Kenneth、Rietz, Thomas A.(2004)。Suckers Are Born but Markets Are Made: Individual Rationality, Arbitrage, and Market Efficiency on an Electronic Futures Market。Management Science,50(3),336-351。
20.
Manski, Charles(2006)。Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets。Economics Letters,91(3),425-429。
21.
Grossman, Sanford J.(1981)。An Introduction to the Theory of Rational Expectations under Asymmetric Information。Review of Economic Studies,48(4),541-559。
22.
Forsythe, Robert、Nelson, Forrest、Neumann, George R.、Wright, Jack(1992)。Anatomy of An Experimental Political Stock Market。American Economic Review,82(5),1142-1161。
23.
童振源、林馨怡、林繼文、黃光雄、周子全、劉嘉凱、趙文志(20091100)。臺灣選舉預測:預測市場的運用與實證分析。選舉研究,16(2),131-166。
延伸查詢
24.
Blin, Jean-Marie、Whinston, Andrew B.(1975)。Discriminant Functions and Majority Voting。Management Science,21(5),557-566。
25.
Brüggelambert, Gregor(2004)。Information and Efficiency in Political Stock Markets: Using Computerized Markets to Predict Election Results。Applied Economics,36(7),742-768。
26.
Forsythe, Robert、Rietz, Thomas A.、Ross, Thomas W.(1999)。Wishes, Expectations and Actions: A Survey on Price Formation in Election Stock Markets。Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,39(1),83-110。
27.
Leigh, Andrew、Wolfers, Justin(2006)。Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets。Economic Record,82(258),325-340。
28.
Wolfers, Justin、Zitzewitz, Eric(2004)。Prediction Markets。Journal of Economic Perspectives,18(2),107-126。
29.
Wolfers, Justin、Leigh, Andrew(2002)。Three Tools for Forecasting Federal Elections Lessons from 2001。Australian Journal of Political Science,37(2),223-240。
30.
童振源、周子全、林繼文、林馨怡(20110500)。2009年臺灣縣市長選舉預測分析。選舉研究,18(1),63-94。
延伸查詢
31.
Fama, Eugene F.(1970)。Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work。The Journal of Finance,25(2),383-417。
32.
Hayek, Friedrich A.(1945)。The use of knowledge in society。The American Economic Review,35(4),519-530。
研究報告
1.
Berg, Joyce(2003)。Accuracy and Forecast Standard Error of Prediction Markets。
2.
Gürkaynak, Refet、Wolfers, Justin(2005)。Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk。
3.
Wolfers, Justin、Zitzewitz, Eric(2006)。Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice。
圖書
1.
Kambil, A.、Van Heck, E.(2002)。Making Markets。Cambridge, MA:Harvard Business School Press。
其他
1.
未來事件交易所(2011)。未來事件交易所資料庫,http://xfuture.org, 2011/10/04。
延伸查詢
2.
Foutz, Natasha Zhang,Jank, Wolfgang(2007)。The Wisdom of Crowds: Pre-release Forecasting via Functional Shape Analysis of the Online Virtual Stock Market,http://ssrn.com/abstract=1432444。
3.
Rhode, Paul W.,Strumpf, Koleman S.(2008)。Manipulating Political Stock Markets: A Field Experiment and a Century of Observational Data,http://www.unc.edu/~cigar/papers/ManipNBER.pdf, 2011//05/28。
圖書論文
1.
Berg, Joyce、Forsythe, Robert、Rietz, Thomas(1997)。What Makes Markets Predict Well? Evidence from the Iowa Electronic Markets。Understanding Strategic Interaction: Essays in Honor of Reinhard Selten。New York:Springer。
2.
Ledyard, John O.(2006)。Designing Information Markets for Policy Analysis。Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions。Washington, D.C.:AEI-Brookings Joint Center。
3.
Luckner, Stefan、Weinhardt, Christof、Studer, Rudi(2006)。Predictive Power of Markets: A Comparison of Two Sports Forecasting Exchanges。Information Management and Market Engineering。Karlsruhe:Karlsruhe University Press。
4.
Snowberg, Erik、Wolfers, Justin、Zitzewitz, Eric(2005)。Information (In)Efficiency in Prediction Markets。Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets。Cambridge:Cambridge University Press。
5.
Sunder, Shyam(1995)。Experimental Asset Markets: A Survey。Handbook of Experimental Economics。New Jersey:Princeton University Press。
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