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題名:判定選舉預測市場之準確度 : 最適價格門檻.預測準確度與鑑別模型
作者:童振源 引用關係陳樹衡 引用關係葉家興戴中擎 引用關係池秉聰 引用關係林鴻文
出版日期:2016
出版項:臺北:政大出版社
ISBN:978-986-6475-90-0
主題關鍵詞:民意調查選舉
學門:政治學
資料類型:專書
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 點閱點閱:11
期刊論文
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88.童振源、周子全、林繼文、林馨怡(20110500)。2009年臺灣縣市長選舉預測分析。選舉研究,18(1),63-94。new window  延伸查詢new window
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會議論文
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研究報告
1.Wolfers, J.、Zitzewitz, E.(2006)。Interpreting prediction market prices as probabilities。  new window
2.Wolfers, Justin、Zitzewitz, Eric(2006)。Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice。  new window
3.Berg, Joyce、Nelson, Forrest、Rietz, Thomas(2003)。Accuracy and Forecast Standard Error of Prediction Markets。Henry B. Tippie College of Business Administration, University of Iowa。  new window
4.Ottaviani, Marco、Sørensen, Peter Norman(2007)。Aggregation of information and beliefs in prediction markets。  new window
5.Leigh, Andrew、Wolfers, Justin、Zitzewitz, Eric(2003)。What Do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq。  new window
6.Foutz, N. Z.、Jank, W.(2007)。The wisdom of crowds: pre-release forecasting via functional shape analysis of the online virtual stock market。  new window
7.Gurkaynak, R.、Wolfers, J.(2005)。Macroeconomic derivatives: An initial analysis of market-based macro forecasts, uncertainty, and risk。Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco。  new window
8.Oprea, R.、Porter, D.、Hibbert, C.、Hanson, R.、Tila, D.(2008)。Can manipulators mislead market observers?。Chapman University, Economic Science Institute。  new window
學位論文
1.楊婷安(2015)。創意政策的開發與評鑑:以高雄市政策創新發展為例(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.吳偉劭(2007)。市場交易淺薄下之錯誤評價及其校正--以預測市場為實證基礎(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.杜映磊(2014)。創意市場之開發與運用:以「國寶人壽登峰造極計畫」為例(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.辛栢緯(2012)。「未來事件交易所」的選舉預測分析(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Kambil, Ajit、Van Heck, Eric(2002)。Making Markets: How Firms can Design and Profit from Online Auctions and Exchanges。Boston, MA:Harvard Business School Press。  new window
2.Ortner, G.(1998)。Forecasting markets-An industrial application。German:Technical University of Vienna。  new window
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5.王保進(2004)。多變量分析:套裝程式與資料分析。臺北市:高等教育。  延伸查詢new window
6.Everitt, Brian、Dunn, G.(2001)。Applied Multivariate Data Analysis。New York:Oxford University Press。  new window
7.Hastie, Trevor、Tibshirani, Robert、Friedman, Jerome H.、Franklin, James(2001)。The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference and Prediction。Springer。  new window
8.Hartigan, John A.(1975)。Clustering Algorithms。New York:John Wiley and Sons。  new window
9.吳明隆(2008)。SPSS操作與應用--多變量分析實務。台北:五南出版社。  延伸查詢new window
10.Zarnowitz, V.(1967)。An appraisal of short-term economic forecasts。National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc。  new window
11.陳正昌、程炳林、陳新豐、劉子鍵(2009)。多變量分析方法:統計軟體應用。五南。  延伸查詢new window
12.Cox, Gary W.(1997)。Making Votes Count: Strategic Coordination in the World's Electoral Systems。Cambridge University Press。  new window
13.Hair, Joseph F. Jr.、Anderson, Rolph E.、Tatham, Ronald L.、Black, William C.、Babin, Barry J.(1998)。Multivariate data analysis。Prentice-Hall, Inc.。  new window
其他
1.Gjerstad, S.(2005)。Risk aversion, beliefs, and prediction market equilibrium,http://www.aeaweb.org/assa/2006/0106_1015_0701.pdf, 2014/05/06。  new window
2.Allen, Kim,Daniels, Kevin,Kopp, Darby,Murdock, Brian(2004)。Analysis of 2004 Political Futures Markets,Dartmouth University。,http://www.intrade.com/news/images/Dartmouth_Election_Paper_11_9_04%20(2).doc.。  new window
3.劉曉霞(2006)。高市長候選人--媒體民調比較,http://mag.udn.com/mag/vote2006/storypage.jsp?f_ART_ID=50597&pno=0。  延伸查詢new window
4.陳英珊(2006)。北市長候選人--媒體民調比較,http://mag.udn.com/mag/vote2006/storypage.jsp?f_ART_ID=50761&pno=0。  延伸查詢new window
5.Pearlstein, S.(20030730)。Misplacing trust in the markets。  new window
6.Varian, Hal R.(20030731)。A good idea with bad press。  new window
圖書論文
1.Berg, Joyce、Forsythe, Robert、Rietz, Thomas(1997)。What Makes Markets Predict Well? Evidence from the Iowa Electronic Markets。Understanding Strategic Interaction: Essays in Honor of Reinhard Selten。New York:Springer。  new window
2.Ledyard, John O.(2006)。Designing Information Markets for Policy Analysis。Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions。Washington, D.C.:AEI-Brookings Joint Center。  new window
3.Snowberg, Erik、Wolfers, Justin、Zitzewitz, Eric(2005)。Information (In)Efficiency in Prediction Markets。Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets。Cambridge:Cambridge University Press。  new window
4.Sunder, Shyam(1995)。Experimental Asset Markets: A Survey。Handbook of Experimental Economics。New Jersey:Princeton University Press。  new window
5.Luckner, Stefan、Weinhardt, Christof、Studer, Rudi(2006)。Predictive Power of Markets: A Comparsion of Two Sports Forecasting Exchanges。Information Management and Market Engineering。Karlsruhe:Karlsruhe University Press。  new window
6.Armstrong, J. Scott(2001)。Combining Forecasts。Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners。Boston, MA:Springer。  new window
7.Chen, Shu-Heng、Tung, Chen-Yuan、Tai, Chung-Ching、Chie, Bin-Tzong、Chou, Tzu-Chuan、Wang, Shu G.(2011)。Prediction Markets: A Study on the Taiwan Experience。Prediction Markets: Theory and Applications。London:Routledge。  new window
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