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題名：飲鴆止渴的典型動態決策行為
書刊名：管理評論
作者：楊仁壽 引用關係
作者(外文)：Yang, Jenshou
出版日期：1999
卷期：18:1
頁次：頁23-56
主題關鍵詞：動態決策行為；飲鴆止渴；決策績效；單環與雙環學習；Dynamic decision making；Fix that fail；Decision performance；Single and double loop learning
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(5) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:24
  • 點閱點閱:122
　　　　　人所生存的環境本質上是動態的，因此動態決策行動的研究，有其探討的重要性 。 無論是實驗研究或從現實世界的觀察都發現一般人並非良好的動態決策者，Peter Senge 歸納出許多典型的動態決策偏差行為，稱之為系統基模。本研究設計 -- 實驗研究，嘗試驗 證「飲鴆止渴」系統基模作為動態決策行為理論的效度，並探討動態決策績效不佳的原因及 能否從經驗中學習的問題。研究發現，在具有「飲鴆止渴」特性的決策情境中，受試者發生 三種飲鴆止渴的行為使得決策績效不佳，且無法從經驗中學習去避免此種偏差行為，只發生 單環學習，未發現有雙環學習。造成飲鴆止渴決策行為的原因包括在思考層面： （ 1 ）思 考問題的時間幅長過短以至於忽視時間滯延的重要性， （ 2 ）思考問題的空間範圍過窄以 至於無法處理多因果關聯性所引發的旁作用， 以及在控制程序上，（ 3 ）以線性的資訊處 理方式，導致無法理解與控制非線性運作的系統。最終造成在認知層面對回饋資訊的誤解， 在行為上產生飲鴆止渴。
　　　　　Dynamic decision making is an essential topic of behavioral decision making for people live in a dynamic world. Researchers and practitioners have found that people are poor decision-makers in dynamic decision environment. Peter Senge proposed systems archetypes to describe dysfunctional decision behavior in specific structures. The present study attempted to test the validity of "Fix That Fail" archetypes. Meanwhile, dysfunctional behavior and learning in and about dynamic complex systems were investigated. The results demonstrated that subjects behaved as "Fix That Fail" archetype predicts. Single loop learning in stead of double loop learning was found. Three probable causes were responsible for the dysfunctional behavior. The first, insufficient deliberation of time span, subjects neglected the impact of time delay on achievement of the goal. The second, insufficient deliberation of problem space, subjects did not take side effects into account when making decisions. The third, subjects utilized linear principle to deal with nonlinearity of the dynamic task. For the three biases, subjects were unable to interpret feedback information correctly and "Fix That Fail" behavior resulted.
期刊論文
1.Brehmer, B.(1994)。The Psychology of linear judgement models。Acta Psychologica，87(2/3)，137-154。  new window
2.Sterman, J. D.(1994)。Learning in and about Complex Systems。System Dynamics Review，10(2/3)，291-330。  new window
3.Brehmer, Berndt(1992)。Dynamic decision making: Human control of complex systems。Acta Psychologica，81(3)，211-241。  new window
4.Diehl, Ernst、Sterman, John D.(1995)。Effects of Feedback Complexity on Dynamic Decision Making。Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes，62(2)，198-215。  new window
5.楊仁壽(19980100)。動態決策環境中時間滯延的效果。管理評論，17(1)，83-106。new window  延伸查詢new window
6.Simon, H. A.(1979)。Rational decision making in business organizations。American Economic Review，69(4)，493-513。  new window
7.Edwards, W.(1962)。Dynamic Decision Theory and Probabilistic Information Processing。Human Factors，4，59-73。  new window
8.Sterman, J. D.(1989)。Modeling managerial behavior: misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision-making environment。Management Science，35(3)，321-399。  new window
9.Payne, John W.(1982)。Contingent Decision Behavior。Psychological Bulletin，92(2)，382-402。  new window
10.楊仁壽、黃俊英(1992)。動態決策環境中之標的導向的決策行為。管理科學學報，9(2)，143-157。  延伸查詢new window
11.Doerner, D.(1980)。On the difficulties people have in dealing with complexity。Simulation & Games，11，76-106。  new window
12.Sengupta, A.、Abdel-Hamid, T. K.(1993)。Alternative Conceptions of Feedback in Dynamic Decision Environments: An Experimental Investigation。Management Science，39(4)，411-428。  new window
13.Gai, E. G.、Curry, R. E.(1976)。A model of human observer in failure detection tasks。IEEE Transactions Systems, Man & Cybernetics，SMC-6，85-90。  new window
14.Rouse, W. B.(1983)。Model of human problem solving: Detection, diagnosis, and compensation for system failures。Automatica，19，613-625。  new window
15.Chapman, Loren J.(1967)。Illusory Correlation in Observational Report。Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior，6，151-155。  new window
16.DeShon, R. P.、Alexander, Ralph A.(1996)。Goal Setting Effects on Implicit and Explicit Learning of Complex Tasks。Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes，65，18-36。  new window
17.Earley, P. C.、Connolly, T.、Ekegren, G.(1989)。Goal, Strategy Development and Task Performance: Some Limits on the Efficacy of Goal Setting。Journal of Applied Psychology，74(1)，24-33。  new window
18.Ebert, R. J.(1972)。Human Control of a Two-Variable Decision System。Organizational Behavior and Human Performance，7，237-264。  new window
19.Hogarth, Robin M.(1981)。Beyond Discrete Biases: Functional and Dysfunctional Aspects of Judgmental Heuristics。Psychological Bulletin，90(2)，197-217。  new window
20.Kudadjie-Gyamfi, E.、Rachlin, H.(1996)。Temporal Patterning in Choice Among Delayed Outcome。Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes，65(1)，61-67。  new window
21.Rappoport, A.(1966)。A Study of Human Control in a Stochastic Multistage Decision Task。Behavioral Science，11，18-32。  new window
22.Rappoport, A.(1966)。A Study of Multistage Decision Task With An Unknown Duration。Human Factors，8，54-61。  new window
23.Rappoport, A.(1967)。Variables Affecting Decisions in a Multistage Inventory Task。Behavioral Science，12，194-204。  new window
24.Toda, M.(1962)。The Design of a Fungus-Eater: a Model of Human Behavior in An Unsophisticated Environment。Behavioral Science，7()，164-183。  new window
25.Sterman, John D.(1989)。Misperceptions of Feedback in Dynamic Decision Making。Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes，43(3)，301-335。  new window
會議論文
1.Yang, J.(1997)。Give me the right goals, I will be a good dynamic decision-maker。Turkey。709-712。  new window
2.Doerner, D.(1989)。Managing a Simple Ecological System。沒有紀錄。  new window
3.Yang, J.(1996)。Facilitating Learning Through Goal Setting in a Learning Laboratory。沒有紀錄。593-596。  new window
4.Young, S. H.、Yang, J.、Wang, S.(1992)。Enhancing the Leaning Effects of Dynamic Decision Game on Systems Thinking - An Experimental Study。沒有紀錄。  new window
5.Young, S. H.、Chen, C. P.(1996)。Entrapping Landmine Structure in Microworlds Formed With Uncontrollable Positive Feedback Loops。沒有紀錄。597-600。  new window
研究報告
1.Forrester, N. B.(1969)。A Computer Approach To Environmental System Design - Dynamics of a Predator-Prey Relationship。0。  new window
2.Sterman, J. D.、Paich, M.(1992)。Boom, Bust, and Failures To Learn in Experimental Market。0。  new window
學位論文
1.楊仁壽(1993)。動態決策之研究(博士論文)。國立中山大學。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.王思峰(1994)。管理學習實驗室之設計與學習遷移：動態性複雜案例之處方性實驗研究(博士論文)。國立中山大學。new window  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Argiris, A.(1990)。Overcoming organizational defenses。Boston, MA：Allyn and Bacon。  new window
2.Anderson, N. H.(1996)。A Functional Theory of cognition。Hillsdale, New Jersey：Lawrence Erlbaum Associates。  new window
3.Simon, Herbert A.(1982)。Models of Bounded Rationality。Cambridge, Massachusetts：MIT Press。  new window
4.Locke, E. A.、Latham, G. P.(1990)。A theory of goal setting and task performance。Prentice Hall。  new window
5.Babbie, Earl、李美華、孔祥明、林嘉娟、王婷玉(1998)。社會科學研究方法。時英出版社。  延伸查詢new window
6.Anderson, Norman Henry(1981)。Foundations of information integration theory。Academic Press。  new window
7.Senge, Peter、郭進隆、齊若蘭(1990)。第五項修練：學習型組織的藝術與實務。台北：天下文化。  延伸查詢new window
8.Brehmer, B.(1990)。Strategies in Real Time Dynamic Decision Making。Insights in Decision Making: A Tribute to Hillel J. Einhorn。Chicago, IL。  new window
9.Brehmer, B.、Allard, R.(1991)。Real-time dynamic decision making: Effects of task complexity and feedback delays。Distributed Decision Making: Cognitive Models for Cooperative Work。Chichester。  new window
10.Allard, R.、Brehmer, B.(1991)。Feedback Delays in Real-Time Dynamic Decision Making。Feedback Delays in Real-Time Dynamic Decision Making。沒有紀錄。  new window
其他
1.Hasselrot, A.，Brehmer, B.(1991)。Epistemic Competence in Dynamic Decision Making，0。  new window
2.Yang, J.(1998)。Systems Thinking As An Essential Capability To Competence-Based Management，沒有紀錄。  new window
 
 
 
 
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