文章使用2016年全國6省12市的生育調查數據,分析了中國城市地區父母對20~44歲已婚已育一孩女性的二孩生育計劃的影響,并討論了家庭收入水平如何在代際影響中發揮調節作用。結果顯示,父母通過照料支持和表達自身生育偏好影響女性的二孩生育計劃,父母提供二孩照料支持、父母的二孩或多孩偏好以及性別偏好會顯著提高女性有二孩生育計劃的可能性。家庭收入水平不僅對二孩生育計劃有顯著的正向影響作用(即收入水平越高的家庭,更可能有二孩生育計劃),還在父母性別偏好對女性生育計劃的影響中發揮了重要的調節作用。父母性別偏好對女性二孩生育計劃的影響在收入水平不同的家庭間存在差異,在收入水平越高的家庭,父母的性別偏好產生的影響越大。

Using data from the 2016 fertility survey conducted in 12 cities of 6 provinces in mainland China,this study discusses the intergenerational effects on women’s plan for a second child in the era of universal two-child policy. We only focus on the main targeted group of this policy change——married women who are between age 20 and 44 and have only one child in urban China,contributing to the discussions regarding future fertility trend. Overall,the results suggest that parental childcare supports and fertility preferences significantly affect women’s birth plan. Specifically,the probability of having a second child plan is higher if parents can provide childcare assistance,prefer to have two or more grandchildren or have sex preference. Also,family income is positively associated with women’s plan to have a second child and moderates parental effects. The influence of parental sex preference on women’s second child plan is stronger in families with higher income.