中國的初婚年齡不斷推遲,但終身未婚率目前仍然很低,具有晚婚普婚的特點,與歐洲婚姻模式中終身未婚率高的特點明顯不同。中國社會重視家庭中的代際義務關系,相關社會政策盡力維護婚姻收益的專屬性和排他性,這些都強化了婚姻價值,有利于維系普婚模式。但現代社會中,社會流動加劇,人們的價值觀更加多元,特別是消費主義思想對年輕人影響很大,對傳統婚姻、家庭、生育觀念造成較大沖擊,影響到人們對生活方式的選擇,這導致人們做出不婚選擇的風險加大。隨著經濟進入減速轉型時期,個人在婚姻市場找到合意配偶的難度加大,更有可能選擇不婚。分析預測中國婚姻模式的變化趨勢,必須理解個人婚姻決策的過程,特別是普婚模式和不婚模式下決策的差異。

Age at first marriage in China has been greatly delayed, but the proportion of population who stay lifetime single is still at a very low level, which is significantly different from the pattern of European marriage. The Chinese society attaches importance to the intergenerational obligation relationship in the family, and the social policies do their best to maintain the specific and exclusive gain from marriage, which strengthen the marriage value and help to maintain the universal marriage. However, in modern societies with intensive social mobility, people’s values become more diverse. Conflict between consumerism culture and traditional concepts of marriage, family, and fertility affects people’s choice of life style, which increases the risk of making non-marriage choices. In a period of economic slowdown and transformation, it is more difficult for individuals to find a suitable spouse in the marriage market, and thus more likely to choose not to marry. To analyze and predict the trend of marriage pattern in China, we must understand the process of individual marriage decision, especially the difference between universal marriage pattern and non-universal marriage pattern.