自由貿易協定的三個議題__臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫

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題名：	自由貿易協定的三個議題
作者：	林文晟
作者(外文)：	LIN, WEN-CHENG
校院名稱：	國立臺北大學
系所名稱：	經濟學系
指導教授：	李叢禎
學位類別：	博士
出版日期：	2017
主題關鍵詞：	自由貿易協定；區域經濟整合；服務業貿易；Free Trade Agreement；Regional Economic Integration；Services Trade
原始連結：	連回原系統網址
相關次數：	被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0) 排除自我引用:0 共同引用:0 點閱:6

本研究是以三個自由貿易協定作為研究對象，探討不同型態的貿易政策對國家經濟的影響效果。
第一個主題為多邊自由化的經濟影響評估，以簽屬新世代貿易協定為基礎，探討服務業與服務業技術外溢對TPP國家的經濟影響。GTAP的模擬結果顯示，關稅減讓情境中TPP以東南亞國家的經濟成長最為明顯；加入服務業貿易後，除了新加坡之外其他各國的經濟成長都相當有限；最後考慮服務業技術外溢的因素，我們發現外溢效果帶動的經濟成長與服務業出口價值呈正向的關係，特別是日本與新加坡最為明顯。簽署新世代貿易協定除了有助於國內經濟與產業產值的進步，先進國家之間也能透過服務業貿易創造出更大的貿易成長。然而TPP排除美國後的模擬結果將有明顯的變化，首先是墨西哥的GDP由負轉正，成為美洲地區經濟成長最快速的國家，將會是未來TPP貨品貿易發展的重點國家；其次日本在農業部門的損失將會大幅下降，日本取代加拿大成為產值成長率最高的國家，因此日本若能以較低的農業損失促進國內工業發展，爾後在TPP國家中將能取得產業政策主導權；最後TPP在排除美國後，其他11個國家彼此的貿易狀況將會好轉，但同時也抑制先進國家之間的貿易發展。
第二個主題為單邊自由化的經濟影響評估，嘗試以全球貿易模型衡量當一國設立自由貿易園區時的經濟影響效果，本文是以台灣推動自由經濟示範區(FEPZs)為研究案例。GTAP的模擬結果顯示，當所有示範產業同時進行時，FEPZs短期將會帶來0.62%的經濟成長率，長期有可能達到1.19%的成長水準；農業加值政策在前店後廠的營運模式可提升我國進口原料與出口商品的價值，達到商品「加值」之成效，但農業加值政策帶動的經濟成長卻十分有限；相反的結果，創新服務業雖然是造成經濟成長的主要因素，但對產業並非皆有幫助；整體示範產業同步推動有助於產業間的產值提升，符合「以高端服務業為主，促進服務業發展的產業為輔」的示範創新重點。
第三個主題為雙邊自由化的跨領域研究，以兩岸經濟合作架構協議(ECFA)的早期收穫清單產業作為研究對象，透過實驗設計方式進行個體計量分析，探討貿易政策與國內勞動市場的關聯性，也藉由實證結果回應外界對貿易自由化的疑慮。經由政策效果的驗證，國內廠商若是以減產來因應中國大陸的進口時，長期ECFA並不會造成整體進口產業的勞動需求萎縮；其次，出口部門整體的勞動報酬呈一致的方向，ECFA沒有造成競爭產業內薪資差距擴大的現象。最後是貿易理論的驗證，假設我國為技術勞動豐富之國家，由估計結果可得知，出口部門技術勞動的要素報酬將會顯著增加，而進口部門非技術勞動的要素報酬無顯著效果，未符合H-O理論結果。

以文找文

The research focuses on three free trade agreements that discuss different trade policies’ impact on domestic economy.
The first is economy-wide impact assessment of multilateral liberalization. Based on signing of new age free trade agreements, the research discusses service trade technology spillover effects on the Trans-Pacific Partnership members. Global Trade Analysis Project’s (GTAP) simulation result indicates the following: TPP’s southeast Asian members would mostly benefit from tariff concessions. Taking service trade into account, the other southeast Asian nations’ economic output was limited except Singapore. Finally, factoring in service trade technology spillover effect, the economic growth propelled by spillover effect is correlated to service trade’s export value, particularly Japan and Singapore. Signing new age FTA would help expand domestic economy and output value. The advanced economies could also help create trade growth. However, excluding the U.S., change in simulation result is noticeable. First, Mexico’s GDP growth rate turned positive and exhibits the fastest growth in the American continent. Mexico would focus on goods trade under the TPP framework. Secondly, Japan’s agriculture loss will drop significantly. Japan will overtake Canada and becomes the country that displays the highest agriculture output growth rate. Accordingly, if Japan can boost domestic industrial growth at the expense of lower agriculture loss, the country could dominate the industry policy. Finally, excluding the U.S., the remaining TPP states could show improved trade performance; meanwhile, the advanced economies’ trade developed could be suppressed.
The second is the assessment of trade liberalization’s economic impact. The GTAP model is employed to measure an economic impact from a country’s free trade zone. Free Economic Pilot Zones (FEPZs) is the case study of the research. The simulation result indicates the following: when all the demonstration industries are in place at the same time, FEPZs would generate GDP growth of 0.62% and 1.19% in the near and long term, respectively. It is wroth mentioning that the value added agricultural processing policy could improve Taiwan’s imported raw materials and exported products and yield the “value-added” positive results. Nonetheless, GDP growth boosted by the value added agricultural processing policy is very limited. On the contrary, although innovative service plays a major role in the economic growth, it is not necessarily to give all sectors a boost. Overall demonstration industries could increase value among the industries, which meets the Target Activities of “Integrating Taiwan’s advantages with potential industries and new business models”.
The third is the interdisciplinary research on bilateral liberalization. The research target is Cross-Straits Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement’s (ECFA) List and Tariff Reduction Arrangements under the Early Harvest for Trade in Goods. The micro quantitative analysis is conducted based on Difference in Difference (DID) to find correlation between trade policy and domestic labor market. Additionally, an empirical result could address the concerns about open markets. Based on the research, if the domestic companies reduce production in response to imports from China, the ECFA will not reduce labor demand in the overall import sector. Moreover, ECFA would not widen the wage gap in the export sector. Finally, the trade policy is used to testify our hypothesis. Assuming Taiwan is a skill -intensive country, the skilled labor’s factor of return in the export sector will increase significantly. On the contrary, the unskilled labor’s factor of return in the import sector would not achieve significant effect, which is not in accordance with the H-O theory.

以文找文

第二章考量服務業技術外溢效果對新世代貿易協定之經濟影響評估

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第三章自由貿易園區之經濟影響評估-以台灣推動自由經濟示範區為例

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第四章海峽兩岸經濟合作架構協議(ECFA)回顧與探討–早期收穫清單產業之勞動效益分析

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