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題名:半島「無核化」進程之美中朝三邊互動
作者:盧信吉
作者(外文):Hsin-Chu Lu
校院名稱:國立中興大學
系所名稱:國際政治研究所
指導教授:蔡東杰
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2019
主題關鍵詞:朝鮮半島無核化政策嚇阻理論Korean PeninsulaDenuclearizationdeterrence theory
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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半島無核化進程的演進,說明過去東北亞局勢發展脈絡,輔以二十世紀的兩次世界大戰改變國際環境,其遺留下的核子武器議題,成為當前東亞政治演進的遺緒。過去美國國家安全思維主導了世界的局勢,同時引導東北亞的戰爭與和平,美國成為當代世界局勢中最主要的行為國。中國身為區域內崛起的大國,其東北亞政策隱然成為東北亞區域內的第二項變因。加之平壤政權的核子政策,東北亞地緣政治局勢複雜且多變。本研究將從三方外交政策的互動,說明朝鮮半島「無核化」政策的發展、困境與未來。
The denuclearization process on the Korean Peninsula speaks of the development of Northeast Asia in the past seven decades. The issue of nuclear weapons remains a legacy of political developments in the region. US strategic thinking during dominated international relations during the Cold War and influenced war and peace in Northeast Asia. China’s rise in the past decades gives Beijing more influence in international relations and makes its foreign policies ever decisive in the region. North Korea’s nuclear policy adds to the complicated geopolitical picture in Northeast Asia. This study examines the interaction among the US, China and North Korea in the foreign policy arena and discusses the development, dilemma and future of denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula.
壹、中文部分
一、書籍
Kenneth Waltz著,信強譯,《國際政治理論》(上海:人民出版社,2008年)。
Robert L.Pfalezgraff Jr.&James E. Dougherty著,胡祖慶譯,《國際關係 理論導讀》(臺北:五南圖書出版公司,1994)。
毛澤東,《毛澤東選集:第四卷》(北京:人民出版社,1977年)。
王俊生,《朝核問題與中國角色》(臺北:渤海堂文化,2010年)。
李銳,《美國隊朝鮮半島的危機管理》(北京:時事出版社,2016年7月)。
李學保,《當代國際安全合作的探索與爭鳴》(北京:世界知識出版社),2006年11月。
曹雄源、黃文啓譯,《布希政府時期國家安全戰略》(National Security Strategy)(桃園:國防大學,2008年5月)
傅瑩,〈朝核問題的起起伏伏〉,《布魯金斯中國專欄系列之三》,2017年5月,頁6-17。
葉至誠、葉立誠合著,《研究方法與論文寫作》(臺北:商鼎文化出版社,2000年10月10日)。
劉清才、高科等,《東北亞地緣政治與中國地緣戰略》(天津:天津人民出版社,2007年)。
蔡東杰,《兩岸外交策略與對外關係》(臺北:高立圖書公司,2001年),。
蔡東杰,《東亞區域發展的政治經濟學》(臺北:五南圖書,2007年)。
閻學通,《美國霸權與中國安全》(天津:人民出版社,2000年)。
閻學通、孫學峰,《國際關係研究實用方法》(北京:人民出版社,2001年)。
閻學通、孫學峰,《國際關係研究實用方法》(北京:人民出版社,2001年)。
謝瀚輝,《布希政府對北韓及伊朗核武危機之政策差異分析─攻勢現實主義的檢視》(臺北:致知學術出版社,2014年8月1日)。
蘇長和,《全球公共問題與國際合作:一種制度的分析》(上海:人民出版社,2000年)。

二、期刊
Yossef Bodansky原著,〈北韓危機》〉,《新新聞》,第393期(1994),頁111。廖文義,〈北韓核問題與「六方會談」:回顧、分析與展望〉,《開南大學通識教育中心 通識研究集刊》,第十四期(2008年),頁31-56。
朱松柏,〈北韓的飛彈外交與亞太安全〉,《問題與研究》,第39卷第2期(2000),頁1-12。
朴炳光,〈胡錦濤時期 中國對北韓政策及其對『北韓核武問題』之認知〉,《全球政治評論》,第31期(2010年),頁27-46。
林賢參,〈北韓威脅對日本飛彈防禦戰略發展之影響〉,《全球政治評論》,第33期(2011),頁97-124。
姜龍範,〈中朝關係的現狀與今後的展望:關於朝鮮半島問題上的中國戰略〉,《東北亞研究》,第2期(2002年),頁1-13。
倪峰,「論東亞地區的政治、安全結構」,美國研究,第3期(2001年),頁8。
祝曙光,〈朝鮮戰爭與中美的相互理解〉,《探索與爭鳴》,2010年10月,頁76-80。
秦亞青,〈美國國家戰略:在進攻與整合之間〉,《現代國際關係》,2003年第8期,頁3-6。
袁鵬,〈美全球戰略調整與中美關係〉,《亞非縱橫》,2006年第3期,頁1-4。
陳峰君,〈21世紀朝鮮半島對中國的戰略意義〉,《國際政治研究》,第4期(2001年)。
蔡東杰,〈『天安艦事件』與朝鮮半島安全局勢發展〉,《戰略安全研析》,第61期(2010),頁8-11。

三、網路資料
朝鮮半島能源發展組織(Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization, KEDO)網站,1994年10月21日,http://www.kedo.org/pdfs/AgreedFramework.pdf。
聯合國1718號決議案,參閱聯合國網站,http://www.un.org/zh/sc/documents/resolutions/06/s1718.htm。
聯合國825號決議案,參閱聯合國網站,http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N93/274/35/IMG/N9327435.pdf?OpenElement。
朴斗植,〈北韓有可能試射『大浦洞2號』導彈〉,《朝鮮日報》,2002年1月10日, http://cn.chosun.com/big5/site/data/html_dir/2002/01/10/20020110000014.html。
莊誠編譯,〈兩韓海上交火,南韓4死1艇沉沒〉,《自由電子新聞網》,2002年6月30日,http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2002/new/jun/30/today-t1.htm。
金仁仇,〈北韓威脅可能恢復導彈試射〉,《朝鮮日報》,2002年11月5日, http://cn.chosun.com/big5/site/data/html_dir/2002/11/05/20021105000010.html。
庚龍源,〈北韓上周導彈試射再遭失敗〉,《朝鮮日報》,2003年3月18日,http://cn.chosun.com/big5/site/data/html_dir/2003/03/18/20030318000018.html。
鄭權賢,〈北韓曾在9月10日試射小型導彈〉,《朝鮮日報》,2003年10月3日, http://cn.chosun.com/big5/site/data/html_dir/2003/10/03/20031003000023.html。
〈美最新國家安全戰略 先發制人更為好鬥〉,《中國評論新聞網》,2006年3月16日,http://www.chinareviewnews.com/doc/1001/1/0/9/100110975.html?coluid=7&kindid=0&docid=100110975&mdate=0911123624。
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〈各輪六方會談回顧〉,《新華網》,2007年2月8日,http://big5.china.com.cn/international/zhuanti/6lfht/2007-02/08/content_7965068.htm。
朱庸中,〈奧巴馬會李明博:更強化美韓同盟〉,《朝鮮日報》,2009年4月3日, http://cn.chosun.com/big5/site/data/html_dir/2009/04/03/20090403000030.html。
〈美國政府公部“國家安全戰略報告”〉,《國際在線》,2010年5月28日,http://big5.cri.cn/gate/big5/gb.cri.cn/27824/2010/05/28/110s2866869.htm。
美國國務院國家信息局,〈美國官員將推動各國對伊朗實施制裁〉,《美國參考》,2010年7月30日,http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/chinese/article/2010/08/20100802142932xdiy0.0331341.html#axzz2DDkaSfMC。
美國國務院國家信息局,〈美國與韓國國防部部長談戰略發展〉,《美國參考》,2011年10月28日,http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/chinese/article/2011/10/20111031144624x0.5481618.html#axzz2DDkaSfMC。
〈金正恩會見李源潮〉,人民網,2013年7月26日,http://cpc.people.com.cn/n/2013/0726/c64094-22332863.html。
〈韓媒:朝鮮軍校掛標語稱『中國是叛徒,是敵人』〉,《鳳凰網》,2014年3月26日,http://i.ifeng.com/news/guoji/news?aid=80430429&all=1&p=2。
〈韓媒:朝鮮軍校掛標語稱『中國是叛徒,是敵人』〉,《鳳凰網》,2014年3月26日,https://www.chinanews.co/news/gb/intl/2014/03/201403280539.shtml。
〈習近平出席『中央外事工作會議』並發表重要講話〉,《新華網》,2014年11月29日,http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2014-11/29/c_1113457723.htm。
〈習近平出席『中央外事工作會議』並發表重要講話〉,《新華網》,2014年11月29日,http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2014-11/29/c_1113457723.htm.
〈中國積極參與半島無核化〉,《日經中文網》,2017年4月27日,http://zh.cn.nikkei.com/politicsaeconomy/politicsasociety/24892-2017-04-27-09-06-59.html。
王毅,〈堅持實現無核化目標,維護半島和平與穩定〉,中華人民共和國外交部,2017年4月29日,http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/zyxw/t1457787.shtml。
傅瑩,〈『朝核問題』的起起伏伏〉,《布魯金斯中國專欄系列之三》,2017年5月,https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/e58285e88eb9-e69c9de6a0b8e997aee9a298e79a84e8b5b7e8b5b7e4bc8fe4bc8f-e4b8ade59bbde8a786e8a792.pdf.。
〈韓國總統文在寅在德國柏林發表「韓半島和平構想」〉,《北韓透視》,2017年7月13日,http://world.kbs.co.kr/special/northkorea/contents/news/koreatoday_view.htm?No=2956&lang=c。
〈中共十九大:習近平提出「新時代中國特色社會主義」〉,《BBC新聞網》,2017年10月18日,https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-41662478。
〈中共特使宋濤訪北韓2天都沒見到金正恩〉,《ETTday新聞雲》,2017年11月20日,https://www.ettoday.net/news/20171120/1055812.htm。
〈習近平特使宋濤訪問朝鮮遭遇官媒『冷處理』〉,《BBC新聞網》,2017年11月21日,https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-42069571。
〈中國制裁力道日漸增強 北韓壓力大增〉,《自由時報電子報》,2017年12月3日,http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/2272370。
〈中朝『血盟』 汪洋:因核問題對立〉,《中時電子報》,2017年12月3日,http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20171203000571-260309。
〈美韓啟動最大規模軍演是否顯示北韓已過紅線〉,《美國之音》,2017年12月5日,https://www.voacantonese.com/a/news-north-korea-red-line-20171204/4149744.html。
〈國際制裁 加劇北韓民生痛苦〉,《中時電子報》,2018年2月28日,http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20180228002378-260408。
〈朝鮮參訪團訪華,瞭解改革開放成果〉,《環球網》,2018年5月16日,http://world.huanqiu.com/exclusive/2018-05/12036014.html。

貳、英文部分
一、書籍
Alagappa, Muthiah, “Reinforcing National Security and Regional Stability:The Implications of Nuclear Weapons and Strategies,” in Muthiah Alagappa ed., the Long Shadow: Nuclear Weapons and Security in 21st Century Asia (Singapore:National University of Singapore Press, 2009).
Balzacq, Thierry ed., Securitization Theory: How Security Problems Emerge and Dissolve (New York: Routledge, 2011).
Bill MeSweeney, Security, Identity, and Interests: A Sociology of International Relations (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1999), p. 13.
Brown, Harold, Thinking About National Security: Defense and Foreign Policy in a Dangerous World (Westview Press, March 22, 1983).
Brzezinski, Zbigniew, Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower (New York: Basic Books, 2007).
Buzan, Barry and Eric Herring, The Arms Dynamic in World Politics (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1998).
Buzan, Barry, and Lene Hansen, The Evolution of International Security Studies (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2009).
Buzan, Barry, Ole Waever and Jaap de Wilde, Security: A New Framework for Analysis(Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1997).
Buzan, Barry, People, States and Fear: An Agenda for International Security Studies in the Post-Cold War Era (second edition, UK: European Consortium for Political Reasearch, 2007).
Coskun, Bezen Balamir, Analysing Desecuritization: The Case of the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Education and Water Management (Newcastle upon Tyne: Cambridge Scholars Publishing, 2011).
Danilovic, Vesna, “Conceptual and Selection Bias Issues in Deterrence,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 45(2001), pp. 97-125.
Diehl, Paul F., and Gary Goertz, War and Peace in International Rivalry (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2000).
Friedrich, Carl, Man and His Government:An Empirical Theory of Politics (NY: Graw Hill, 1963)
Gilpin, Robert, “The Politics of Transnational Economic Relations,” in Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, Jr., eds.,Transnational Relations and World Politics (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1972).
Goldstein, Avery, “Balance-of-Power Politics:Consequence for Asian Security Order,” in Muthiah Alagappa, ed., Asian Security Order (Stanford, CA:Stanford University Press, 2003).
Gompert, David C., Sea Power and American Interests in the Western Pacific (Santa Monica:RAND, 2013).
Goodpaster, Andrew J., “Deterrence: An Overview,” in Governing Board of the National Research Council, eds., Post-Cold War Conflict Deterrence (Washington D.C.: National Academy Press, 1997), p. 24.
Gray, Colin S., “Inescapable Geography,” in Colin S. Gray and Geoffrey Sloan (ed.), Geopolitics, Geography and Strategy (London: Frank Cass, 2005).
Green, Philip, Deadly Logic: The Theory of Nuclear Deterrence (Columbus: Ohio State University Press, 1966).
Grieco, Joseph M., “Understanding the Problem of International Cooperation: the Limits of Neoliberal Institutionalism and the Future of Realist Theory,” in David A. Baldwin ed., Neorealism and Neoliberalism: The Contemporary Debate (New York: Columbia University Press, 1993).
Gupta, Amit, “Introduction,” in Amit Gupta ed., Strategic Stability in Asia (Burlington, V.T.: Ashgate Publishing Company, 2008), p. 2.
Huges, Christopher W., and Akiko Fukushima, “U.S.-Japan Security Relations- Toward Bilateralism Plus?” in Ellis S. Krauss and T. J. Pempel eds., Beyond Bilateralism: U.S.-Japan Relations in the New Asia-Pacific(Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2004).
Ilpyong J. Kim, “Kim Jong Il’s Military-First Politics,” in Young Whan Kihl and Hong Nack Kim eds., North Korea: The Politics of Regime Survival( N.Y.: M. E. Sharpe Press, 2006), pp. 59-74
Jervis, Robert, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1976).
Jervis, Robert, The Illogic of American Nuclear Strategy (Ithaca, N. Y.: Cornell University Press, 1984).
Jervis, Robert, The Logic of Images in International Relations (Columbia University Press, July 12, 1989).
Jin, Guangyao, “The Security Situation and Cooperative Security in Northeast Asia,” in Christopher M. Dent and David W. F. Huang, eds., Northeast Asian Regionalism: Learning from the European Experience (London:Routledge Curzon, 2002).
Jones, Handel, Chinamerica: The Uneasy Partnership that Will Change the World (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2010).
Kapur, S. Paul, Dangerous Deterrent:Nuclear Weapons Proliferation and Conflict in South Asia (Singapore:National University of Singapore Press, 2009).
Katzenstein, Peter J., “Alternative Perspectives on National Security,” in Peter J. Katzenstein eds., The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity in World Politics (New York: Columbia University).
Kaufman, Daniel J. Jeffrey S. McKitrick and Thomas J. Leney eds., U. S. National Security: A Framework for Analysis (Lexington, MA : Lexington Books, 1985).
Keohane, Robert O., “Realism, Neorealism and the Study of World Politics,” in Robert O. Keohane ed., Neorealism and its Critics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1986).
Kim, Yongho, “North Korea: A Perpetual Rogue State?” in G. John Ikenberry and Chung-in Moon, eds., The United States and Northeast Asia: Debates, Issues, and New Order (Lanham, Maryland:Rowman and Littlefield Publishers Press, 2008).
Kissinger, Henry, Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy (New York: Harper, 1957).
Kliman, Daniel M., Japan’s Security Strategy in the post-9/11 World: Embracing a New Realpolitik (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies Press, 2004).
Lampton, David M., “Introduction: Thinking Trilaterally about Big Power Relations in Asia,” in Lampton ed. Major Power Relations in Northeast Asia: Win-Win or Zero-Sum Game (Tokyo:Japan Center for International Exchange, 2001), pp.10-11.
Mangold, Peter, National Security and International Relations (London and New York: Routledge, 1990).
Manning, Robert A., “Security in East Asia,” in William M. Carpenter and David G. Wiencek, eds., Asian Security Handbook:An Assessment of Political-Security Issues in the Asia-Pacific Region (New York:M.E. Sharpe, 1996).
MeSweeney, Bill, Security, Identity, and Interests: A Sociology of International Relations (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1999).
Mochizuki, Mike M., “Japan’s Shifting Strategy toward the Rise of China,” in Quansheng Zhao and Guoli Liu eds., Managing the China Challenge: Global Perspectives (New York:Taylor and Francis Group Press, 2009).
Morgan, Patrick M., Deterrence: A Conceptual Analysis (London: SAGE., 1977).
Morgenthau, Hans J., Politics among Nations: the Struggle for Power and Peace,7th edition, (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1985).
Osgood, Robert, Limited War: The Challenge to American Strategy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1957)
Papadakis, Maria and Harvey Starr, “Opportunity, Willingness, and Small States: The Relationship between Environment and Foreign Policy,” in Charles Hermann eds., New Directions in the Study of Foreign Policy (Boston: Allen & Unwin, 1987).
Paul K. Huth, Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War (New Haven:Yale University Press, 1988).
Powell, Robert, Nuclear Deterrence Theory: The Search for Credibility (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990).
S. Paul Kapur, Dangerous Deterrent: Nuclear Weapons Proliferation and Conflict in South Asia(Singapore: National University of Singapore Press, 2009)
Schelling, Thomas C., Arms and Influence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966).
Schelling, Thomas C., The Strategy of Conflict (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1960).
Scobell, Andrew, China and North Korea: from Comrades-In-Arms to Allies at Arm’s Length (Carlisle:National Defense University Press, 2004).
Singer, David J., Stuart Bremer, and John Stuckey, “Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820–1965,” in Bruce Russett ed., Peace, War, and Numbers (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1972).
Snyder, Glenn H., Deterrence and Defense (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1961).
Snyder, Scott, China’s Rise and the Two Koreas: Politics, Economics, Security (New York:Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2009).
Sprout, Harold Hance and Margaret Tuttle Sprout , An Ecological Paradigm for the Study of International Politics (Princeton: Center of International Studies, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, 1968).
Sprout, Harold Hance and Margaret Tuttle Sprout, The Ecological perspective on Human Affairs (Princeton: Center of International Studies, 1965).
Sprout, Harold Hance, Man-Milieu Relationship Hypotheses in the Context of International Politics (Princeton: Center of International Studies, 1956).
Victor D. Cha and David C. Kang, Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies (N.Y.: Columbia University Press, 2003).
Wæver, Ole, “Securitization and Desecuritization,” in Ronnie Lipschutz ed., On Security (New York: Columbia University Press).
Walt, Stephen M., “Alliance: Balancing and Bandwagoning.” in Robert J. Art and Robert Jervis eds., International Politics: Enduring Concepts and Contemporary Issues (Peking University Press, 2005).
Waltz, Kenneth N., Theory of International Politics (MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979).
Yongho Kim, “North Korea: A Perpetual Rogue State?” in G. John Ikenberry and Chung-in Moon eds., The United States and Northeast Asia: Debates, Issues, and New Order(Lanham, Maryland: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers Press, 2008).

二、期刊
Art, Robert J., “Striking the Balance,” International Security, Vol. 30, No. 3 (2005), pp.177-196.
Art, Robert J., “To What Ends Military Power?” International Security, Vol. 4, Issue 4 (Spring, 1980), pp. 3-35.
Art, Robert J., “A Defensible Defense: America’s Grand Strategy after the Cold War,” International Security, Vol. 15, No. 4(Spring 1983).
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