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題名:災害管理決策支援系統之研究
書刊名:中央警察大學災害防救學報
作者:孫志鴻 引用關係朱子豪 引用關係蔡博文 引用關係林峰田 引用關係王聖銘詹仕堅 引用關係謝奇峰
出版日期:2000
卷期:1
頁次:頁1-28
主題關鍵詞:災害管理決策支援系統災害管理循環週期資料庫系統雛型案例式推理地理資訊系統Disaster managementDecision support systemDisaster management life cycleDatabasePrototypingCase-based reasoningGeographic information system
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 點閱點閱:92
     本研究為國科會核定為期三年的整合型計畫,主要目的是結合地理資訊系統、遙測、全球定位系統與日益成熟的網路技術,在防災國家型科技計畫整體架構下,興計畫辦公室災害研究群的研究相互配合,整合其災害潛勢分析成果與境況模擬模式,共同規劃建置相關防災資料庫,以建立一套整體性的災害管理決策支援系統,有效輔助防災國家型科技計畫辦公室及相關政府部門之災害防救業務。在參考美國及日本災害管理決策支援系統之最新技術研發,並深入探討台灣之整體環境的發展背景後。本研究使用災害生命週期法來進行決策支援系統整體架構的規劃。將災害自發生前至發生後的整個過程視為一個完整的災害管理循環.並依據其中不同的業務特質將災害管理的循環週期主要區分為:減災(Mitigation)、準備(Preparedness)、應變(Response)、復原(Recovery)等四個階段,進一步分析各個階段所需的決策支援需求,運用模組化的概念規劃其中的各項子系統,以組成完整的災害管理決策支援系統。現階段除了完成整體性的決策支援系統架構規劃外,也透過文獻蒐集彙整、訪談與問卷調查等方式來進行資料需求分析,進一步規劃災害管理決策支援系統所需的資料庫架構。完整的災害防救決策支援系統資料庫應由地理資料庫、氣象水文觀測資料庫、歷史性災害資料庫、潛勢分析與境況模擬成果資料庫、詮釋資料庫等五大資料庫組成。為了往後能夠具體落實災害管理決策支援系統的整體架構,本研究也配合計畫辦公室現階段的發展重點,設計了颱洪災害防救決策支援系統雛型的基本架構,並著手以分工合作的方式由各子計畫分別執行部分系統的功能發展。同時,本研究以地震知識管理為例。透過「案例式推理」(Case-Based Reasoning,簡稱CBR)的研究方法,蒐集國內歷年來都市層級之地震災害管理相關研究(不含地質研究、地震工程)一百餘本,並利用英國Wales大學所開發的CBR軟體Caspiar,建置「地震災害管理文獻案例式查詢系統」,探討其應用於都市災害管理研究之可行性,初步獲致良好的成果。
     This project is a three years integrated study funded by the National Science Council.The main purpose of this project is to build an Advanced Disaster Management DecisionSupport System (ADAMDS) based on GIS, GPS, remote sensing, and Internet technologies tosupport the need of the National Science and Technology Program for Hazard Mitigation(NAPHM)and related government agencies. NAPHM is a large scale national project whichwill transfer the hazard research results from academia to the related government agencies. The basic goal of the NAPHM is to reduce the risk of individual citizen and the society fromhazards. The main objective of the NAPHM is to provide a sound technological basis forpractical hazards mitigation efforts. Thus, development of effective hazard mitigation measureswill be its critical task. Disaster management includes mitigation, preparedness, response andrecovery phases. Information needs for these four disaster management phases were analyzedbased on user's needs assessment and document analysis. ADAMDS will be implemented onInternet through rapid prototyping approach. The basic framework for ADAMDS ispresented in this paper. The database for ADAMDS includes geographic database, hydrologicand metrological database, historical hazard database, potential hazards and risk analysisdatabase, and metadata database. Knowledge management approach was also applied in thisstudy by using case-based reasoning technique in earthquake related research documentsretrieval.
期刊論文
1.Golding, A. R.、Rosenbloom, P. S.(1996)。Improving Accuracy by Combining Rule-based and Case-based Reasoning。Artificial Intelligence,87,215-254。  new window
2.Aamodt, A.、Plaza, E.(1994)。Case-Based Reasoning: Foundational Issues, Methodological Variations, and System Approaches。Artificial Intelligence Communications,7(1),39-59。  new window
3.Yeh, A G O、Shi, X.(1999)。Applying Case-Based Reasoning to Urban Planning: A New Planning-Support System Tool。Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design,vol.26,pp.lOl-115。  new window
會議論文
1.Golding, A.R.、Rosenbloom, P.S.(1991)。Improving rule-based systems through case-based reasoning1993,22-27 ; 759-764。  new window
2.Bartsch-Sporl, B.(1995)。Towards the Integration of Case-Based, Schema-Based and Model- Based Reasoning for Supporting Complex Design Tasks145-156。  new window
3.Reategui, E.、Campbell, J.A.、Borghetti, S.(1995)。Using a Neural Network to Learn General Knowledge in a Case-Based System528-537。  new window
研究報告
1.李威儀、錢學陶、李咸亨(1997)。台北市都市計畫防災系統之規劃。台北:中華民國都市計畫學會。  延伸查詢new window
2.Disaster Information Task Force(1997)。Harnessing Information and Technology foe Disaster Management - The Gobal Disaster Information Network。  new window
圖書
1.Turban, E.(1990)。Decision Support and Expert Systems: Management Support Systems。  new window
2.Leake, D.B.(1996)。CBR in Context: The Present and Future。Case-Based Reasoning: Experience, Lessons, and Future Directions \\ Leake, D.B.(ed.)。  new window
3.Arts, R.J.、Rousu, J.(1997)。Qualitative Knowledge to Support Reasoning About Cases。Case-Based Reasoning Research and Development \\ Veloso, M. ; Aamodt, A. (eds) $aSecond International Conference on Case-Based Reasoning, ICCBR-97。  new window
4.Yeh, A G O、Shi, X.(1999)。The Integration of Case-Based Reasoning and GIS in Development Control。Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design。  new window
其他
1.顏清連,蔡義本,陳亮全,李清勝,許銘熙,林美聆,羅俊雄(1997)。防災國家型科技計畫規劃報告,臺北:國科會。  延伸查詢new window
2.Wheeler, R.(1998)。I Knew That: An Introduction to Case-Based Reasoning。  new window
3.  延伸查詢new window
4.Doyle, M.,Ferrario, M.A.,Hryes, C.,Cunningham, P.,Smyth, B.(1999)。CBR Net: Smart Technology over a Network。  new window
 
 
 
 
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