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題名:股市報酬率、波動性和分配之週末效果實證研究
書刊名:管理研究學報
作者:黃健銘 引用關係蘇榮斌李彥賢
作者(外文):Huang, Chien-mingSu, Jung-binLee, Yen-hsien
出版日期:2008
卷期:8
頁次:頁31-53
主題關鍵詞:週末效果ARJI模型偏態GED高狹峰厚尾Weekend effectARJI modelSkewed GEDLeptokurtic and fat tail
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:19
  • 點閱點閱:46
本研究目的在於檢測各國大盤股市是否存在週末效果(weekend effect)的異常現象,並進一步探討對其股市報酬率波動性的影響。研究標的選取開發中國家之台灣、香港、新加坡和馬來西亞,已開發國家為美國、日本、澳洲和加拿大。實證模型採用ARJI模型且假設報酬率分配服從偏態GED分配,以捕捉各國大盤股價報酬率偏態及高峰厚尾之特性。實證結果顯示,在報酬率方面,新加坡和馬來西亞呈現出週末效果的異常現象,香港則呈現反週末效果,已開發國家除加拿大呈現出反週末效果外,其他國家皆不存在週末效果的現象。在波動性方面,台灣週一交易日對大盤報酬的波動呈正向影響,而週五交易日則呈負向影響,美國週一為負向關係,日本週一及週五兩個交易日皆呈現正向關係。在偏態和峰態方面,開發中國家皆呈現左偏及高狹峰厚尾的分配,而已開發國家也呈現出高狹峰厚尾的型式,但在偏態估計值僅有加拿大呈現右偏狀態,其餘三個國家則無偏態型式。在樣本期間非預期事件的衝擊,已開發國家平均跳躍頻率和平均跳躍機率皆大於開發中國家。
This paper investigates the abnormal phenomenon of weekend effect of stock markets in the developing countries such as Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Malaysia and the developed countries such as the U.S., Japan, Australia, and Canada. We used the ARJI model and SGED distribution which can be used to catch the skew, leptokurtic and tail. Empirical results show that the weekend effect presents in both Singapore and Malaysia, but Hong Kong exhibits the reversing weekend effect. In addition, it doesn't show the existence of the weekend effect in all developed countries, while Canada has a reversing weekend effect. In the volatility, there are positive significantly relationships on Monday, but negative on Friday in Taiwan's equity market, and America also presents the negative significantly relationship on Monday. Japan has a positive significantly outcomes on Monday and Friday. Other countries have no significant effect. On the other hand, the distribution of return presents the skewed and heavy-tailed in all developing countries, whereas developed countries have no skewness shape. In the unexpected information shocks, the average jump intensity and probability of developed countries are larger than developing countries.
期刊論文
1.Berument, H.、Kiymaz, H.(2001)。The Day of the Weekend Effect on Stock Market Volatility。Journal of Economics and Finance,25(2),181-193。  new window
2.楊踐為(19980300)。臺灣店頭市場週末效應之GARCH模型檢定。證券櫃檯,21,1-12。  延伸查詢new window
3.Brusa, J.、Liu, P.、Schulman, C.(2000)。The Weekend Effect, Reverse Weekend Effect, and Firm Sizw。Journal of Business Finance & Accounting,27(5/6),555-575。  new window
4.Fortune, P.(1999)。Are Stock Returns Different over Weekends? A Jump Diffusion Analysis of the `Weekend Effect'。New England Economic Review,3-19。  new window
5.Keef, S. P.、Roush, M. L.(2005)。Day of the Week Effects in US and Asia-Pacific Stock Markets during the Asian Financial Crisis: a Non-Parametric Approach。Applied Financial Economics,25,107-119。  new window
6.Gibbons, M. R.、Hess, P.(1981)。Day of the Weekend Effect and Assets Return。Journal of Business,54(4),579-596。  new window
7.French, Dan W.(1984)。The Weekend Effect on the Distribution of Stock Prices-Implications for Option Pricing。Journal Financial Economics,13(4),547-559。  new window
8.Lakonishok, J.、Levi. M.(1982)。Weekend Effects in Stock Returns: A Note。Journal of Finance,37(3),883-889。  new window
9.Chang, K. H.、Kim, M. J.(2001)。Jump and Time-Varying Correlations in Daily Foreign Exchange Rates。Journal of International Money and Finance,20(5),611-637。  new window
10.Kim, Harold Y.、Mei, Jianping P.(200112)。What Makes the Stock Market Jump? An Analysis of Political Risk on Hong Kong Stock Returns。Journal of International Money and Finance,20(7),1003-1016。  new window
11.Rogalski, Richard J.(1984)。New Findings Regarding Day-of-the-Week Returns over Trading and Non-Trading Periods: A Note。The Journal of Finance,39(5),1603-1614。  new window
12.Chan, W. H.、Maheu, J. M.(2002)。Conditional Jump Dynamics in Stock Market Returns。Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,20(3),377-389。  new window
13.林丙輝、葉仕國(19990900)。臺灣股票價格非連續跳躍變動與條件異質變異之研究。證券市場發展,11(1)=41,61-92。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.Abraham, Abraham、Ikenberry, David L.(1994)。The Individual Investor and the Weekend Effect。Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,29(2),263-277。  new window
15.Jaffe, J. F.、Westerfield, R. W.(1985)。The weekend effect in common stock returns: The international evidence。Journal of Finance,40(2),433-454。  new window
16.Bates, David S.(1991)。The Crash of '87: Was It Expected? The Evidence from Options Markets。Journal of Finance,46(3),1009-1044。  new window
17.Fama, E. F.(1965)。The behavior of stock market prices。Journal of Business,38(1),34-105。  new window
18.French, Kenneth R.(1980)。Stock Returns and the Weekend Effect。Journal of Financial Economics,8(1),55-69。  new window
19.Bollerslev, Tim(1986)。Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity。Journal of Econometrics,31(3),307-327。  new window
20.Engle, Robert F.(1982)。Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation。Econometrica,50(4),987-1008。  new window
21.Mandelbrot, Benoit B.(1963)。The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices。The Journal of Business,36(4),394-419。  new window
研究報告
1.Theodossiou, P.(2001)。Distribution of Financial Asset Prices, the Skewed Generalized Error Distribution, and the Pricing of Options。Rutgers University。  new window
2.Das, S. R.(1998)。Poisson-Gaussian Processes and the Bond Market。National Bureau of Economic Research。  new window
圖書
1.Brusa, J. O. R.(1998)。Calendar Anomalies: an Empirical Analysis of the Reverse Weekend Effect。University of Arkancsas。  new window
 
 
 
 
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